Model output discussion - into 2018

[Snowman.]

As soon as the 12z hits lowrez the Atlantic is pushed through but that run is so very close to a stellar cold spell.

[That ECM]

15 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Yes it is, because it is within UKMO range now at 144hrs

UKMO 12z 144hrs

Yesterday's 12z UKMO 144hrs

And the 8th January 12z UKMO 144hrs

This illustrates to me that more of the energy from the nw is being directed south as opposed to east and the block being modelled to be stronger than was first modelled. 

[joggs]

9 minutes ago, carinthian said:

UNREAL. A NW ly that stretching from Davis Straights to Crete. Must be the longest flow in chart history. 5000miles !   Crazy synoptic.

C

How many Nick Sussex shortwaves would pop up at T 92 lol.

Edited January 9, 2018 by joggs

[Chris101]

Mmmm even more interest.

Still seeing lots of weaker heights all around to our North, also models seem to have cut off heights from the pole getting into Greenland and yet to an extent they are still there, past experience keeps screaming at me that with such a nice looking Scandi still a maybe, the signals to me are good that this is where heights may head.

[A Frayed Knot]

5 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Deepest FI but still nice to see Europe in the freezer.

 

Rather see the UK in the freezer ' ain't it about time we had some good old fashion winters that we use to get back in the day ' Eh !

[SMU]

GFS 06z 102 mean v the 12z Mean 96

notice it being held back-

Also more ens members backing up west creating cold in situ over the UK

again 06z v 12z. 108 v 102

S

Edited January 9, 2018 by Steve Murr

[MP-R]

Wouldn't it be a shame if we ended up with two -6C 850hPa lines fighting from the northwest and the east... 

Not much more to add from preceding posts but the GFS in particular is one wintry scenario after another. The first attempt at Atlantic break in at the end of this week ends with the low cutting off to the south leaving us in a col - cue mist, fog and subdued temperatures (more autumnal than wintry), the next break in quickly advances to Pm onslaught with snow showers a plenty, then even FI it toys with an Azores-Scandi link up around the 20th, that gets torn apart by a low breaking through by sliding over the southwest peninsula. 

Right, story time over. Interesting model watching for sure. I just wish the interim weather conditions were remotely interesting. At least last winter we had to put up with frost and sunshine between more active happenings.

[bobbydog]

in the mid-term, i think we need the block to give up and move east instead of hanging on and keeping us in no-mans land. however strong it is, we're not getting an epic easterly (yet...) if it would just oblige favourably, it would allow those cold uppers to come flooding in from the north west

we dont often see the atlantic bringing snow but here we have a distinct possibility

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

36 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Yes it is, because it is within UKMO range now at 144hrs

UKMO 12z 144hrs

Yesterday's 12z UKMO 144hrs

And the 8th January 12z UKMO 144hrs

Well fingers crossed you are right and it happens because this no mans land weather setup is starting to do my head in!

[bobbydog]

and there's the stratospheric warming again.

beginning at +240 for the 'omni-doubters'

[Nick L]

42 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

GFS is going to have a big upgrade planned for sometime in 2019. It’s very much needed, would be ironic if GFS become the model of choice.

 

9km being the same as the EC, good to hear.

[Snowjokes92]

14 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

in the mid-term, i think we need the block to give up and move east instead of hanging on and keeping us in no-mans land. however strong it is, we're not getting an epic easterly (yet...) if it would just oblige favourably, it would allow those cold uppers to come flooding in from the north west

we dont often see the atlantic bringing snow but here we have a distinct possibility

Jesus. That first chart with 850 temps is astounding. Cold uppers covering from the west altantic to the other side of europe!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

9km being the same as the EC, good to hear.

But unless the starting data issue is going to be improved the old adage of GIGO applies 

[Seasonality]

43 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

GFS is going to have a big upgrade planned for sometime in 2019. It’s very much needed, would be ironic if GFS become the model of choice.

 

So essentially, high res all the way out, which is better resolution than the current high res! Should be very interesting indeed.

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But unless the starting data issue is going to be improved the old adage of GIGO applies 

Yep, having high resolution all the way through may just mean high resolution wrongness! Time will tell.

Edited January 9, 2018 by Nick L

[Panayiotis]

GFS showing the 'double attack' of pressure rises over Greenland which I alluded to in yesterday's post.

The low pressure hits the block to our west, which leaves it unable to go anywhere hence dragging the PV down and away from Greenland towards the U.K. In doing so it feeds a prolonged NW flow, which in itself gives a lot of oppurtunities for snowfall especially for N and W areas. 

Again it must be noted how this same low pressure drives heights from Scandinavia towards Greenland (first animation) - Pressure Attack 1 

With the PV away from Greenland (and filling over the UK) it leaves a window of opportunity (around day 10/19th) for a pressure rise from the Atlantic (i.e. animation 2)- Pressure Attack 2 

UKMO shows the first pressure attack a lot more clearly than the GFS. 

A linkup of these heights could help us deliver a Greenland high, which is something I'll be keeping my eye on for the next few days to see how developments go. 

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by Panayiotis

[markw2680]

Right this just my thoughts so don’t shoot me down, I can’t help but think that every day the block is stronger and further west, I think that these nice northwesterlys just ent going to happen, I can see it all a lot further west come the day it’s supposed to all brake through leaving us with south easterly winds instead. And the block still there and edging closer. Anything shown in like 3 or 4 days is just too far to look atm with all the short term changes going on. Just have a feeling Steve and teits may have got this one right. Time will tell

[nick sussex]

The Empire Strikes Back ! Or should that be the block which isn’t quite ready to leave the stage.

Not sure people should want it to scoot off too quickly because as long as it can help extend a ridge nw it forces the trough to head more se than east.

It’s been a strange few days , first the trend to bring the Scandi high further west , then this temporarily hit the buffers. Last nights UKMO with the bloated trough to the north now replaced by more trough disruption and a westwards correction.

As long as the block doesn’t sink in an unfavorable manner it’s better for it to hang on. We don’t want to lose that cold air developing to the east because it might come into play later.

I know the PM flow has some fans here which is understandable but my personal preference is to cheer on the block.

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by nick sussex

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

.

Not sure people should want it to scoot off too quickly because as long as it can help extend a ridge nw it forces the trough to head more se than east.

 

I don't mind the block disappearing and a strong rampant PV but only if and when a strong / favourable SSW is firmly in the reliable as it would more than likely be heading for an even bigger fall then anyway!

[Daniel*]

18 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

So essentially, high res all the way out, which is better resolution than the current high res! Should be very interesting indeed.

I know it’s amazing isn’t it? Come next year we could be praising GFS rather than usually slagging it off. 

 

[booferking]

UKMO & GFS still on track for cold zonal start of next week.

 

PS Atlantic has breached the wests  easterly defence.?

Edited January 9, 2018 by booferking

[andymusic]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The Empire Strikes Back ! Or should that be the block which isn’t quite ready to leave the stage.

Not sure people should want it to scoot off too quickly because as long as it can help extend a ridge nw it forces the trough to head more se than east.

It’s been a strange few days , first the trend to bring the Scandi high further west , then this temporarily hit the buffers. Last nights UKMO with the bloated trough to the north now replaced by more trough disruption and a westwards correction.

As long as the block doesn’t sink in an unfavorable manner it’s better for it to hang on. We don’t want to lose that cold air developing to the east because it might come into play later.

I know the PM flow has some fans here which is understandable but my personal preference is to cheer on the block.

 

don't mind cheering on a block with bite and teeth - but this one is like waiting for a feeble older person with no cold uppers - just never gets here - lets get this horrible foggy nothingness gone and onto something more interesting

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I don't mind the block disappearing and a strong rampant PV but only if and when a strong / favourable SSW is firmly in the reliable as it would more than likely be heading for an even bigger fall then anyway!

I shudder at any rampant PV! They give me night terrors!

The UKMO looks like it’s going to develop some decent heights over east Greenland. The snow line isn’t that far to the east and if we can get more trough disruption that could slide sufficiently to allow some colder air in from the ne.

I’d take tonights UKMO all day compared to the GFS at T144 hrs.

[Frosty.]

If anything, the block looks stronger to me, I think the atlantic is going to hit the buffers rather than blast through the uk early next week as the latest Gfs run shows. We could be looking at a battleground situation next week as the cold block and the atlantic lock horns so to speak..could be a titanic struggle.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I shudder at any rampant PV! They give me night terrors!

The UKMO looks like it’s going to develop some decent heights over east Greenland. The snow line isn’t that far to the east and if we can get more trough disruption that could slide sufficiently to allow some colder air in from the ne.

I’d take tonights UKMO all day compared to the GFS at T144 hrs.

Its certainly better but I don't think its would go on to help us too much more than GFS, I think we have to be looking a decent way into the future now TBH.