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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

That really is the bog standard easterly in winter, I think. The colder it gets, often the clearer it gets. 

I just saw Chinos post from last night and he makes a point that I think has been missed in here - any sustained continental flow will be cold at surface level in January and early February, regards of uppers. Mini snow surprises are possible away from the coast until the Atlantic breaks through.

That seems to be the case.  Personally, I find it thoroughly depressing. I like snow as much as the next person but I'll sacrifice it for seeing the sun, not concerned about temps, hot or cold, clear weather floats my boat. I'm sure my glee at snow stems more from the light levels it gives than anything else, this half light, total cloud cover that seems to come with easterlies is just so grim.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

Off topic, but since he used to post in here often and do forecasts for netweather... Where is @MattHugothese days? Never seen anything from him for a good while now, nor on twitter!

Feel free to move but thought more people in here would know?

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

Same thing with the Netherlands, cold always manages to stop at the German and Belgian border 

I think in the last couple of years in particular, the west coast of Norway in particular has been a barrier.  It makes sense i suppose because of the change from cold land mass to relatively warmer sea, but I've seen cold 850s seem to plunge down from the north east towards us on many occasion only to stop at the red lights of Bergen!

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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
28 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

My Location is showing Snow everyday for 9 days running from Monday ... Cant see that coming off ...

So going by your Nickname i presume you are in Lands end ' may be that's where all the snow is going ' or should i say NO MAN'S LAND :D

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Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
4 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

So going by your Nickname i presume you are in Lands end ' may be that's where all the snow is going ' or should i say NO MAN'S LAND :D

Lol NW England

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
3 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

So going by your Nickname i presume you are in Lands end ' may be that's where all the snow is going ' or should i say NO MAN'S LAND :D

i'm guessing 'BlackburnChris' probably lives in Blackburn... just a wild stab...

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The updated ICON brings the cold w/nw eventually but it has higher pressure over Iberia than earlier runs. In other words, the trough doesn't dig southeast and it is more of a west to east progression.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&map=0&archive=0

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Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner

Coming from just outside Belfast the anticipation is building for me next week, the previous incursions of PM air have left us with coverings of the white stuff.

GFS charts looking good for NW next week, plenty of opportunity for radar and lamp post watching.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
1 hour ago, jethro said:

But more often than not, it actually translates into reality, the damn thing really is a cut off point for marginal events. I can only guess the Severn estuary is to blame. China stops taking our plastic waste and we have to now puzzle over what to do with it, build a great big barrier at the mouth of the Severn, back fill it with the waste, should fairly soon remove the problem.

for those of us who live along the M4, it's well known weather fact that it's a micro-climate and the models, GFS, ECM, UKMO et al accurately predict this micro-climate......The battle ground is the central reservation.....the 'East/West Carriageway of Mush is subject to blowtorch southwesterlies and flooding, 3ft to the north we have the 'Central Reservation' a natural convergence zone, bringing wild and windy weather to those odd people residing there (me, on a friday night when I 've far too many beers in Swindon and am looking for a place to lie down on the long walk home) exaserbated by car exhausts and drivers throwing out hot cigarette ends aiding the heating an energy in the atmosphere......Just to the north of the central reservation is the 'West/East Carriageway of Cold'.....bitterly cold easterlies blast this region giving this region and areas to the north dumpings of snow   :crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

This doesn’t look encouraging:nonono:

9FF17F41-4E86-47E2-8484-7F7B248C89F1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

That block is strengthening and pushing west even at this early stage compared to the 6z. Winds more ESE over southern parts.

gfs-0-84.png

gfs-0-78.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Early stages of GFS

06z V 12z

a mysterious wind direction on the 12z (right )

99DCC9C8-A393-4F9D-8AE6-DF6BBC58CD73.thumb.png.f614127eb671525ac391cd9ee9f9ff4e.png71729780-E4F1-46B1-B9D2-886D6753AC8C.thumb.png.3722ab8ef24525217d4c3bdc1907c77a.png

 

Whats theta charts lookin like steve!!what time frame is that!!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

06z vs 12z

F444732A-2BA5-4A24-8402-0A0D5455ACDD.thumb.png.35cecca0cd68feaa372ceb94974e1edd.png3CEE7696-5846-4087-9D08-10752AE2CEB0.thumb.png.eb14a94d8b7b2fa143c859ac2080bd2c.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

66/72

still around 16.

UKMO 96- nice with proper cold further west into Europe- However we would need a more direct flow-

As long as it looks better than gfs in regards to the scandi high at the samw time frame then all is good!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
47 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Off topic, but since he used to post in here often and do forecasts for netweather... Where is @MattHugothese days? Never seen anything from him for a good while now, nor on twitter!

Feel free to move but thought more people in here would know?

Hasn't tweeted for about 6 weeks either. Most unlike him.

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

06z vs 12z

F444732A-2BA5-4A24-8402-0A0D5455ACDD.thumb.png.35cecca0cd68feaa372ceb94974e1edd.png3CEE7696-5846-4087-9D08-10752AE2CEB0.thumb.png.eb14a94d8b7b2fa143c859ac2080bd2c.png

Its the Low that was modelled NW of Scotland on the 6z, being 500 miles further South encourages a more SE/ESE wind.

Interesting GFS to say the least.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Early stages of GFS

06z V 12z

a mysterious wind direction on the 12z (right )

99DCC9C8-A393-4F9D-8AE6-DF6BBC58CD73.thumb.png.f614127eb671525ac391cd9ee9f9ff4e.png71729780-E4F1-46B1-B9D2-886D6753AC8C.thumb.png.3722ab8ef24525217d4c3bdc1907c77a.png

Look for the cut of low towards Portugal.

I have a feeling people have been writing this off all to quick, we no how stubborn these blocks can be and I’m pretty sure it won’t disappear in any hurry

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
Just now, Dean E said:

Its the Low that was modelled NW of Scotland on the 6z, being 500 miles further South encourages a more SE/ESE wind.

Interesting GFS to say the least.

Give Steve his due, he did predict it would happen earlier in the run. 

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Regardless if the block holds out  look at the cold uppers across the atlantic

gfsnh-1-126.png

Let’s just hope they make it here cuz I can see this block hanging on and keeping all them cold uppers in the West and the cold in the east getting closer with each run. All imo of course 

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