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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Indeed, I have seen a few posts on US weather forums referencing Netweather, particularly stuff from MOD and our world renowned Strat thread which has much expert input.

back to the models, GFS pretty persistent in bringing a protracted PM flow, with plenty of potential for snow in there, particularly northern, central and western areas, but little point analysing snow charts this far off.

given the models seem to be weakening the tropospheric PV longer term, we may eventually see the troughing extending SE from Greenland bringing the cold PM flow relax and perhaps disrupt into Europe as a cut-off low, if we see the flow amplify over the Atlantic, which opens up the idea of height rises to the N and NE later in the month.

Certainly advertised recently in the output.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

This really is shaping up to repeat Jan/Feb 2009 which brought a lot of snow for some

 

Yes, that's exactly my thoughts as well, could even be more or less to the day which would hopefully exorcise the ghost of everywhere 5 miles to the East of where I was getting 6 inch, 8 inch and 1ft falls of snow and I had very very light snizzle for 18 hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, that's exactly my thoughts as well, could even be more or less to the day which would hopefully exorcise the ghost of everywhere 5 miles to the East of where I was getting 6 inch, 8 inch and 1ft falls of snow and I had very very light snizzle for 18 hours.

I believe you can get a cream for that!

As regards how the models are shaping up (I've only really taken more than passing interest since winters of 09/10 and 10/11, but the winters seemed to fall over a bit except for later 12/13 and of course March 13, all as a result of SSW) but am I right in thinking this potential PM flow is more akin to what we used to see when I was younger? I'm 50 now and seem to remember that our "regular" colder weather used to come from that direction rather than always looking East?

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Going through the ensembles, it appears to me our 'Scandi high' is actually not helping us at all, the Azores high can't ridge up and the Euro/Scandi high means the low stalls over us for quite some time, good for parts of the UK, but in the search for true HLB and sustained cold not so good.

We were agonisingly close to an easterly of sorts, but with the lack of serious cold pool on the continent perhaps patience is key and good things come to those who wait... well that's what is in the snow starved M4 coridoor south hope. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looks like another spell of below average temps sets up from around Monday

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.16f4b979964c2cef2e66dc573ef3a47c.pnggefsens850Inverness0.thumb.png.847cf35e8b40db5a573e0de0a1d894b1.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.5eae0dfaf0774abdd85a6ac5f8dd23ea.png

Notice as well the higher snow row especially the further north you go

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, JeffC said:

I believe you can get a cream for that!

As regards how the models are shaping up (I've only really taken more than passing interest since winters of 09/10 and 10/11, but the winters seemed to fall over a bit except for later 12/13 and of course March 13, all as a result of SSW) but am I right in thinking this potential PM flow is more akin to what we used to see when I was younger? I'm 50 now and seem to remember that our "regular" colder weather used to come from that direction rather than always looking East?

For you PM probably The classic Easterlies may not have delivered for you, the pattern needs to be further North, however, the 80s for me there was a multitude of different setups that delivered but the powerhouse Easterly was the one that delivered in spectacular style.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I've just run through the GFS06Z animation and, quite frankly, I saw nowt much to get too excited about...?

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looks like another spell of below average temps sets up from around Monday

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.16f4b979964c2cef2e66dc573ef3a47c.pnggefsens850Inverness0.thumb.png.847cf35e8b40db5a573e0de0a1d894b1.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.5eae0dfaf0774abdd85a6ac5f8dd23ea.png

Notice as well the higher snow row especially the further north you go

Pretty good snow rows for London too, looking good for plenty of snow events for many 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looks like another spell of below average temps sets up from around Monday

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.16f4b979964c2cef2e66dc573ef3a47c.pnggefsens850Inverness0.thumb.png.847cf35e8b40db5a573e0de0a1d894b1.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.5eae0dfaf0774abdd85a6ac5f8dd23ea.png

Notice as well the higher snow row especially the further north you go

Also from that time-being monday!..

P-stamps have some brow-raising ens.

Anyone calling the correct fork in the road+144-max...is a brave being!..

As momentum gains a trip of height alingn, to the north west looks more than on offer...with a switch to a more polar continental flow thereafter...(perhaps) again its quite some modeling to unravel, through the rest this coming week.

With the smallest of exactions having major bearing on our overheads.

Edit;

The formation of AZ-HP! Looks to be the decipher-player as to building-or indeed cuttung off pm flow..

Then when we see evolvement on that part, the way forward becomes ever clearer...

 

 

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_144.jpg

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

For you PM probably The classic Easterlies may not have delivered for you, the pattern needs to be further North, however, the 80s for me there was a multitude of different setups that delivered but the powerhouse Easterly was the one that delivered in spectacular style.

Yeah, don't get me wrong, we did very nicely out of Nov / Dec 2010 with heavy snow coming from the NE, but we usually fair better snow wise from either battleground scenario - ppn coming in from W/SW into cold air already embedded or wrap around lows dragging colder air in with back edge snow, especially in the valleys - the tops usually get the wintry stuff as standard!

The PM shot the NWP models are suggesting would be relatively rare these days - with any potency at least, and it looks like it may be more likely to deliver more widely than usual events of this nature more recently.  

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Just run through the GFS06Z animation and, quite frankly, I saw nowt much to get too excited about...?

Snow !

Yes a lot of it is FI but better then a raging Barlett and temps of 12c to 15c

Different time frames

prectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo1.png

prectypeuktopo22.png

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Look at the London ensembles and the snow rows and that is on a flow with a large westerly component. 

While' we opt for the pm-flow which looks nailed-although imo a transitional phase!

The snow potential will likely increase as the back flow ebbs' into the feed.

And as-per anybody flagging certain/exact geographical pin pointing has @this point a 100% incorrect, this is a mile away both in time terms- and your usual polar-martime incursion!!!

And as -again when the flow gets a hold synoptics- and upper airs may well be of surprise!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well after feeling cautiously upbeat looking at the 00z runs Exeters update makes rather sobering reading- perhaps hill snow but main emphasis on cold hard rain.

 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Been letting things lie as the models adjust to the developing signals, but this GEFS member has inspired an ensemble-based post;

15_144_850tmp.png?cb=421

There you go SM, -10*C uppers from the west... but this time right across England! :shok:

There is pretty major divide between ens. members that have the strong, broad trough to the NW akin to the operational, and ones that have a weaker system with significant trough disruption in effect;

13_150_850tmp.png?cb=421

These are still in the minority for the time being, but worth keeping an eye on as it would throw aside the cold north-westerly spell and most likely leave us looking ahead to the impacts of the poleward ridging taking place to our NE, unless we got lucky with a secondary low managing to split away from the parent trough and fully undercut that ridge while also taking on the right shape to move cold air down from NE of us. P17 is the closest I can find to achieving this, and goes to show how much has to fall into place. It may be better for the whole trough to find its way down toward C. Europe as P5 shows, which is achievable if the ridging to our NE moves to our N as the 00z ECM showed. 

17_204_850tmp.png?cb=421 5_210_850tmp.png?cb=421

 

So some positives and negatives to be wary of as we journey toward whatever the stratospheric vortex weakening event coupled with tropical forcing manages to deliver to our doorsteps late Jan and into Feb :hi:.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well after feeling cautiously upbeat looking at the 00z runs Exeters update makes rather sobering reading- perhaps hill snow but main emphasis on cold hard rain.

 

Unless we see systems running into the base of the trough or the trough itself parks over the top of the uk with slack flow then I tend to agree with them - of course cold zonality can deliver lowland snowfall but it’s not too common an occurance.

anywhere above 600 feet midlands north should feel like they’re in with a shot but nothing more than that at present - obviously higher than 800 feet is quite different 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well after feeling cautiously upbeat looking at the 00z runs Exeters update makes rather sobering reading- perhaps hill snow but main emphasis on cold hard rain.

 

Not terrible - showers turning wintry - that doesn't necessarily mean just a bit of sleet mixed in, its a wide envelope, it can mean an all snow event for some - also it doesn't just say the North - it says 'in places' - don't forget the coldest uppers take a while after the windd turns westerly so the hill snow means sunday, the convective showers mid next week.

EDIT : yes BA, exactly the forecast I would expect given the output.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not terrible - showers turning wintry - that doesn't necessarily mean just a bit of sleet mixed in, its a wide envelope, it can mean an all snow event for some - also it doesn't just say the North - it says 'in places' - don't forget the coldest uppers take a while after the windd turns westerly so the hill snow means sunday, the convective showers mid next week.

where does it say showers turning wintry feb?

I dont see that on the update?

Lets hope for improvements , not just wrt next week but further afield because tbh its sounds not very good at all out to early Feb!! (ie wet)!!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Drayton Portsmouth
3 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Funny you should mention the 20th Jan Teits. Both my late mum and my grandmother always used to say that winter 'proper' didn't really begin in southern England until around the 20th Jan. Maybe skewed by memories of 1947 but has often proved the case

 fully agree with this. Winter on the South Coast is Jan, Feb, march. In December warm channel waters are too moderating. Good news, we're only 1 week into winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

where does it say showers turning wintry feb?

I dont see that on the update?

Showery conditions following on from the west with showers turning wintry in places.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looks a lot more interesting next week with cold zonality, looking forward to it!..chance of some snow and widespread frosts..❄❄❄❄❄❄:)

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