Model output discussion - into 2018

[northwestsnow]

Whats with the light blue shading over wales at 144?

Is that a shallow cold pool?

[mulzy]

Better ECM 144 but just concerned that low is not clearing south east faster.  Big risk of pulling warm uppers back up - at least for the south.

Edited December 31, 2017 by mulzy

[comet]

Cheers Steve Just noticed your reply.

ECM t144 the best I think today out of the big three. Not brilliant but a definite improvement I think.

[snowray]

Almost there, cold down into the Midlands, guess we will have to be patient again in the far SE.

[Ali1977]

Next Sunday will feel really cold in a strong Easterly , surely snow showers coming inland with that . 192 once the low drops should get that cold air further south - Thames streamer territory maybe

Edited December 31, 2017 by Ali1977

[damianslaw]

GFS, UKMO and ECM all in firm agreement this evening, showing disruption of the trough thanks to an amplified jet flow, taking a nose dive to our south, allowing a trough to drop through the UK by the end of next week and heights thereafter developing to the north building into scandi. However, we then see a divergence, mainly due to how they handle the strength and position of the Polar Vortex to the NW, GFS shows it maintaining a significant force, killing off amplification and sending us back into a very zonal westerly flow - possibly too quickly I think, the last 2-3 months have seen little in the way of dominant forceful zonal westerlies, and there is nothing to suggest a change in this scenario anytime soon, UKMO is suggesting more robust northern blocking which would keep the PV at bay and possibly herald a more lengthier colder easterly spell, ECM trending more towards this scenario with a classic battleground event shown for the 9 Jan, and a probable undercut set up which would help maintain strong heights to the NE, indeed by 240 hrs it is suggesting these will build much further to the north, helping to reduce the chance of the northern arm of the jet firing into gear.

So very interesting set up as we head into the New Year, last time we had such synoptics in Jan was 2013, but it took until the 12 Jan for a colder spell to surface, whether we are about to enter a sustained wintry interlude remains to be seen, either way, I'm not forseeing much in the way of sustained very mild conditions, the set up shown by GFS would be more of what we have had this week, a predominant chilly NW flow, and every chance of further sliders as we approach mid Jan. 

Could be quite a wintry January ahead, but I also think quite a tricky month forecast wise, with sudden developments a forecasters headache - knife-edge certainly a good word to describe with the boundaries between cold wintry weather and milder muck being very small.

Speak next year!

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

FWIW the ECM feels about right to start the cold @day 6-

its whether the deep cold can make it south of say Leeds etc-

ECM looks good though- here is the UK chart- snow from the borders upwards 

Yes Steve, If that chart verified I could see reasonable 850's make it a bit further South but the problem is, it looks on the 168 that if they do, then the 500mb heights will be too high by then to get any potency into the mix.

[northwestsnow]

You couldn't make it up!!

Germany/Poland like a heatwave -like 6-8 deg above average and here comes the easterly!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes Steve, If that chart verified I could see reasonable 850's make it a bit further South but the problem is, it looks on the 168 that if they do, then the 500mb heights will be too high by then to get any potency into the mix.

I might be wrong but i think it will be cold enough for snow showers in our area feb

[northwestsnow]

EC 192

[comet]

Bloody eck never see the t192 chart coming that's for sure.

 

[SMU]

EC 192 wipes out the mild & also wipes out the Atlantic ( R.E.M. yesterday’s fiasco )

infact its the best chart of the day !

556 dam thickness west of Norway - awaits the 560 line to appear !

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by Steve Murr

[TSNWK]

10 minutes ago, comet said:

Bloody eck never see the t192 chart coming that's for sure.

 

That’s looks pretty cold to me if I follow the isobars back they go back way into the eastern baltic

Edited December 31, 2017 by TSNWK

[chris55]

14 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Better ECM 144 but just concerned that low is not clearing south east faster.  Big risk of pulling warm uppers back up - at least for the south.

This is certainly a possibility, it's going to be a close call how things eventually settle, but the door is definitely ajar for that colder flow to establish. 

Lets hope we trend in the right direction over coming runs as the possibilities are pretty good.

happy new year one and all  

edit

at 192 our little beaut of a high grows some dog biscuits :0

Edited December 31, 2017 by chris55

[jason75]

is it me or does the 192 chart on wetterzentrale look different compared to the one on meteociel?

[Ice Day]

At 216 and some deep cold is knocking on the door.  Maybe this is what the Met Office are seeing?

[Frosty.]

Loving the Ecm 12z, becomes colder and blockier than the 00z..☺?

[Daniel*]

Cracking T192 from ECM turning progressively colder, proper cold spell initiating.  

[Scandinavian High.]

this really good to me high looks stronger and uk looks cold possibilitiy snow to..

[SMU]

So now... the third ECM run that doesn’t plough the Atlantic through at day 9-10

240 chart is excellent - low staling to the SW & fresh CAA south through Scandi!

 

Feb 91 esque

keen eyed will note the SE UK drop -2c @850 from 216-240 in a slack flow - proper continental air / cold pool that is - rare as gold hens teeth.

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by Steve Murr

[northwestsnow]

The block refuses to go into the night without a strong fight!!!

Edited December 31, 2017 by northwestsnow

[snowray]

This is very close to being a beauty of a run, well done ECM! 

[Ali1977]

HUGE improvement, proper Scandy high and more importantly the Atlantic has been stopped in its tracks - this will have some serious potential going forward if correct - a METO head scratcher indeed

Now, please ENS back this up.

 

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by Ali1977

[Daniel*]

A substantial upgrade in terms of cold pooling in the near north/east. Much better aligned. 

00z12z

[stodge]

Evening all

First, New Year greetings to all on NW and especially to the various admins and mods who keep the show on the road.

ECM 12Z OP is nice to look at - the NW winter forecast was tiled "winter on a knife edge" and this is one of those knife edges it would seem. Signs at T+216 of the energy perhaps heading more SE than NE and that's what we need if we have any chance of this next cold outbreak becoming a "spell" rather than a "snap".

T+240 delivers in spades:

I'd go further and say this is the chart of the 2017-18 winter to date because IF (and that's an enormous IF) it verifies, the heights to the NE will have a chance to build and develop. 

It's nice to say the possibility being mooted but there is an enormous amount of water (whether ice or with some scotch in it) to flow under the bridge but it offers something unusual and different.