Model output discussion - into 2018

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended looks west to northwesterly

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

SE winds on the Ecm at 120  and nearly the same on UKMOthat’s different from yesterday.Maybe people should concentrate on the earlier timeframe still.

Yep small changes showing up very early, why I wouldn't look past two may be three days at the minute.

[Daniel*]

GEFS are actually not bad T+180 all quite cool/cold primarily mobile...

Some cold air from not a PM direction being signalled with a cut off low, to our south so continental cold winds cannot be ruled out a whole wealth of possibilities none of which point to mild though.

[Glacier Point]

00z eps was very easy on the (coldies) eye in the extended. 12z going down the same route, particularly Arctic ridging and lack of any upstream pv. Kiev and Moscow 850s might also be starting to light up.

Edited January 8, 2018 by Glacier Point

[booferking]

EC Control goes snowy for large parts.

And another ens 11 to wet the taste buds

Edited January 8, 2018 by booferking

[feb1991blizzard]

ens broadly look to be following op to me - don't have access to anything beyond 240 anymore though.

[mulzy]

EPS Control run - brutal cold at day 15 (sub -10 850 HPa arriving from the east)...

Edited January 8, 2018 by mulzy

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

EPS Control run - brutal cold at day 15 (sub -10 850 HPa arriving from the east)...

Please post the chart mulzy , thanks

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

EPS Control run - brutal cold at day 15 (sub -10 850 HPa arriving from the east)...

Many keeping him company?

[booferking]

EC Control goes snowy for large parts.

And another ens 11 to wet the taste buds

[Rocheydub]

1 hour ago, mulzy said:

Good for you but you will find for many, the wait for lying snow is closing in on 5 years, yes that is FIVE!!!

Try 8 years! None since 2010! 2013 did nothing for us over here. At least we saw some falling this year (about 2 minutes), but it didn't stick... A lot of IMBYism creeping in on this thread, understandable as there have been some who are experiencing a snow famine, while some are just hungry! 

As has been quoted again, those of us on east facing coasts, as the current modelling exists, continue the snow famine, and even cold NWly's will not change this. I was never convinced of a decent easterly this time around, despite what SM was saying, yes he got the modelling correct to bring the possibility of an E'ly, but that's as far as it got. Shame really, although I couldn't see it myself, I was rooting for it! I for one, would like that block to the east to collapse, as long as the Azores HP is where it is, and the chunk of PV is to our NW, we won't see the high retrogress enough for my locality, and I have had enough of the snowless winter! (IMBYism again! Sorry Mods!)

Edited January 8, 2018 by Rocheydub

[Nick F]

Certainly is quite the signal for high latitude ridging across Svabard and to the N Pole on the 12z EPS continuing day 10 onwards, whether it would be enough to suppress Atlantic troughing remains to be seen.

[SLEETY]

9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

EPS Control run - brutal cold at day 15 (sub -10 850 HPa arriving from the east)...

Yeah and how many times does a day 15 chart verify,especially a cold one.I wouldn’t put money on sub -10 850 hpa at 4 days out arriving from the East nevermind 15

Edited January 8, 2018 by SLEETY

[A.J]

no problems at all seeing folk post ppn/snow charts, but it really is worth while remembering that ppn charts at such as short range of T48 are likely to be inaccurate....anythng beyond that is IMHO as much use as, how can I politely put it?  (I can't)  tits-on-fish! 

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yeah and how many times does a day 15 chart verify,especially a cold one.I wouldn’t put money on sub -10 850 hpa at 4 days out arriving from the East nevermind 15

Never going to verify - a just for fun anecdote...

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by mulzy

[mulzy]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Many keeping him company?

No support from the mean - clusters may reveal more later.

Probably a rogue run from the control - it's day 15 and JFF.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Never going to verify - a just for fun anecdote...

 

Cheers mulzy, fingers crossed

In the meantime, some colder weather probably returning to the south later this week with a risk of persistent fog in places and then a good chance of cold zonality at times next week.

Edited January 8, 2018 by Frosty.

[Alexis]

35 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep small changes showing up very early, why I wouldn't look past two may be three days at the minute.

Yet the long term trend has been actually reasonably consistent. Apart from the appearance of a little reinforcement cell from the SW, which looks like slightly prolonging the agony of our block, the Atlantic shunts through on every model. And they’ve been quite consistent for 3 or 4 days now.

[iand61]

16 minutes ago, booferking said:

EC Control goes snowy for large parts.

And another ens 11 to wet the taste buds

I’d bank the 2 feet of snow shown IMBY on the 2nd chart.

not be telling anyone about it just yet though, better wait until T+1hours to be on the safe side.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

17 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

no problems at all seeing folk post ppn/snow charts, but it really is worth while remembering that ppn charts at such as short range of T48 are likely to be inaccurate....anythng beyond that is IMHO as much use as, how can I politely put it?  (I can't)  tits-on-fish! 

As much use as a cat-flap on a submarine, you could say.

[alexisj9]

13 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Yet the long term trend has been actually reasonably consistent. Apart from the appearance of a little reinforcement cell from the SW, which looks like slightly prolonging the agony of our block, the Atlantic shunts through on every model. And they’ve been quite consistent for 3 or 4 days now.

Not strictly true anymore, looking at the control run. Everything is and has been up in the air.

[Frosty.]

It's got really quiet on here understandably as this week doesn't look interesting at all but from early next week could be a lot different with cold shots from the w / nw ( Ecm 12z for example) indicates a risk of wintry ppn, especially on higher ground and some snow in places!❄❄❄❄❄❄

[The Enforcer]

12z Saturday: 

12z Sunday: 

12z Monday: 

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by The Enforcer

[Chesil View]

Just now, Frosty. said:

It's got really quiet on here understandably as this week doesn't look interesting at all but from early next week could be a lot different with cold shots from the w / nw ( Ecm 12z for example) indicates a risk of wintry ppn, especially on higher ground and some snow in places!❄❄❄❄❄❄

Always admire and enjoy your upbeat enthusiasm Frosty but snow up north with some elevation is pretty standard fair even in an average winter. When you live five miles from the English channel just north of Weymouth you need something pretty spectacular and barring a polar low it don't come from the northwest for us.

Edited January 8, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Chevron12345]

Chasing Artic Highs/Ridging in FI is the new theme. The Scandi High was the big theme in December then was witten off late December but actually did appear this week...confusing. Give me a Greenie High modelled at 72 by UKMET please.

The current output on the UKMET is not shifting the Scandi high as fast as people are predicting. The ECM has some agreement too.