Model output discussion - into 2018

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Looking through the ens for next week, quite a lot of them deliver.. esp north. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Looking through the ens for next week, quite a lot of them deliver.. esp north. 

yup !

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Looking forward to ecm snow fest we can only hope lol

I think tonight's ECM will be improved from this mornings run with stronger heights to the North and the Atlantic trough further East and better aligned from around mid month.

It may or may not show an Easterly.

Nothing has changed for me over the ;last few days. If we are to see an Easterly flow then shortly after mid month looks like the landing date.

If Atlantic forcing is too strong then we could still end up with a chilly NW flow, second prize if you like, especially for those in the SE.

There is enough in GFS ensembles to suggest there will be plenty of chopping and changing run to run over the next few days as the models try to get to grips with a finely balanced setup between blocking to the East and Atlantic trough to the West once more.

As with the last faile Easterly I don't think it is an easy call and so I won't bother.

I do feel a little more optimistic than I did with the last failed attempt though. Blocking is already in place unlike the last time we were chasing and there looks to be less reluctance to push more energy SE which other than the odd Op run the models were generally reluctant to do last time.

Onwards and upwards and whatever we call won't make the slightest bit of difference to the eventual outcome.

Egos and opinions at the ready fellow weather nuts, en garde!

[johnholmes]

What are the models showing at 144 hours and 240 hours.

Let's take a look, first 144 hours

GFS 

ECMWF

  MET

EC is copied from Meteo as not yet available on Net Wx. Met and GFS look quite similar with the trough extension and the ridge. EC less so

How about what is available at 240 hours?

EC

and GFS

Not identical for sure but the main idea of ridging up from the Azores (on the chart we can see) is there on both with some kind of troughing out of the Atlantic into the Mediterranean.

So the idea of any easterly, on this run anyway, seems dead in the water.

Do they fit the 6-10 day anomaly upper air charts. Are these consistent. To which the answer is yes over several days

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php is NOAA and below is ECMWF-GFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Both show a marked trough from NE Canada down over the UK into Europe and the Mediterranean.

So the synoptic charts are, to a degree, following the 500 mb anomaly charts, which have been consistent for several days.

Personally I would be very surprised if, on average, over the 6-14 day time scale the weather patterns at the surface and in the upper air show any marked differences from this idea.

I may be wrong, you may disagree, but that is where I stand this evening.

[The Enforcer]

On 7 January 2018 at 17:59, SN0WM4N said:

Today

Yesterday

Still amazing but it's getting to crunch time and GFS still isn't on board. 

How does today's UKMO 12z T+96 850 chart compare with those two?

[Dennis]

still looking for this setup..... needs Azores pressure to block

Edited January 8, 2018 by Dennis

[bluearmy]

As others have commented, I am intrigued by the number of gefs which dive the trough quite early on - we usually expect the gefs to be quite progressive. Of course there are plenty that are progressive and closer to the op but I wonder if ecm will go the same way? After all, it has been keenest to take the trough south thus far.

[snowice]

 

Looks like the Easterly is fighting for its life again

[ArHu3]

 

 

Yesterday 144 vs today 120, that's a pretty big change at such a short notice for the ECM 

 

 

 

GFS looking quite different too with that low over Ireland 

 

UKMO more similar to ecm 

Edited January 8, 2018 by ArHu3

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, snowice said:

 

Looks like the Easterly is fighting for its life again

It is on the ecm!!way less progressive compared to this mornings rub!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Looking through the ens for next week, quite a lot of them deliver.. esp north. 

Don’t tellme, especially with elevation?

 

BFTP

[snowice]

ECM 168 showing pm air from the West the front should dive south east.! Some one will get snow if uppers are cold enough. 

[northwestsnow]

EC looks cold to me at 168-

[Ice Day]

Well the block isn't going anywhere on this run and looks like the high is retrogressing towards Greenland.  Not sure where this is going but it's different, I'll give it that!

  

[Day 10]

15 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

I’m no good with GEFS but Iv noticed the 15th being a consistent date for when the members seem to drop over the past 3/4 runs , some going really quite low , have you noticed that or am i utterly fatigued ?

Some of the interesting ensembles you may be talking about...

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by Day 10

[frosty ground]

11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Don’t tellme, especially with elevation?

 

BFTP

Comment on the models or just a moan?

[nick sussex]

From champ to chump!

UKMO most progressive this evening with a bloated trough to the north and flatter in the east Pacific.

Both ECM and GFS are more amplified there.

[northwestsnow]

EC looks cold 168 onwards- i expect the snow charts to be quite good for NW Britain in particular..

[Johnp]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

From champ to chump!

UKMO most progressive this evening with a bloated trough to the north and flatter in the east Pacific.

Both ECM and GFS are more amplified there.

I bet it's right this time ?

[weirpig]

Uppers of between -7  in the north to -4 in the south east  it looks like again on this run midlands north could see some of the wintry stuff.  Seems to be a recurring pattern this winter  we shall see 

[Snowmadsam]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Uppers of between -7  in the north to -4 in the south east  it looks like again on this run midlands north could see some of the wintry stuff.  Seems to be a recurring pattern this winter  we shall see 

I'm just gonna put it in my signature now, you do not need uppers of -5 or below for snow, dew points are essential. ECM keeping the Easterly flame alive for a time.....

Edited January 8, 2018 by Snowmadsam

[weirpig]

Just now, Snowmadsam said:

I'm just gonna put it in my signiture now, you do not need uppers of -5 or below for snow, dew points are essential. ECM keeping the Easterly flame alive for a time.....

From a north westerly ?  You sure 

[Snowmadsam]

Just now, weirpig said:

From a north westerly ?  You sure 

Speaking from experience in Western Wales I am very sure

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

I'm just gonna put it in my signiture now, you do not need uppers of -5 or below for snow, dew points are essential. ECM keeping the Easterly flame alive for a time.....

Yep, more slush for central and northern areas - yipee!

Edited January 8, 2018 by mulzy

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

I'm just gonna put it in my signature now, you do not need uppers of -5 or below for snow, dew points are essential. ECM keeping the Easterly flame alive for a time.....

Most know this but after the years of slush we've had I think most are looking for a spell of cold weather in bane to Jan 2013 rather than the slider that happened last month.