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Model output discussion - into 2018

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1 minute ago, Nick L said:

While you are correct, if you wouldn't mind discussing it in the relevant thread it would be much appreciated. I'd move the posts myself but it's a royal faff on my phone. 

Ha, yes, but I couldn't let that one pass. Apologies.

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7 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Ha, yes, but I couldn't let that one pass. Apologies.

 I've moved the discussion into there, not as painful as I'd expected. As you were :D

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Nothing is decided yet. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Nothing is decided yet. 

That huge block to the East of us, aint going nowhere too fast. The models have continually under estimated the strength of this block. an Easterly cannot be ruled out even at this stage. Next few runs hopefully should give us a clearer picture as to where things are going.  An Easterly isnt certainly dead and gone

 

 

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Been watching the models fairly consistantly recently and whilst some sort of easterly flow could happen, I have yet seen much evidence of anything cold/snowy that could come out of it and the models in the longer term suggests the Atlantic will eventually win the battle. The problem with the block is that its too far East and the models are not all that keen to have any undercutting troughing in Western Europe either so we end up in the no man's land of a strong southerly wind and nothing particularly cold at all, probably even more so as Eastern Europe is below average on snow cover for example.

Its the classic of do you want the block to stay around incase something could happen(history suggests probably not) or have it sinking and starting all over again type of thing. Hopefully future model runs have it more of an influence on our weather than they are showing at the moment.

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11 minutes ago, SnowBallz said:

 

Which is a very fair assessment.

I touched on a few days ago that various products were resolving towards colder outcomes and whilst this broadly remains the case (some moderation in parts, albeit not material) the key uncertainty remains around timing, which I believe is what Ian is also keen to emphasise.  In my view, some products appear to accelerate transition towards mobility faster than others, and in a blocking synoptic such as we see it is often wise to take a step back and consider plausibility; is it really likely that there will be sufficient energy within the Atlantic to displace an anchored pattern, or is it more likely that the incumbent synoptic would amplify and deflect (hence reference to advertised battleground scenarios)

Very interesting output at present and there really is no strong reason to call any particular outcome.  If you're a coldie (as I am) there is plenty reason to maintain interest and see where the models begin to favour with confidence.

SB :)

I don't usually do one-liners but in my opinion this remains the key message. Thank you SB

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1 hour ago, DOdo said:

 

Good post.There is still uncertainty for the end of the week,despite the know it all posters saying it’s certain there will be NO Easterly..I know the gfs is keen to bring in mobility,but then it’s always the case with that model,with its Atlantic bias built in

the met have it turning colder here end of week from less cold yesterday.

A huge block CANNOT just be pushed away so fast as the models are STILL showing.Wait a couple more runs,could be a big swing to Easterly yet,and well done to SM and TEITS if this happens.

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16 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Just spoke to the nice female resort forecaster. Latest thoughts , specifically addressed to UK . Firstly, the advance of the Atlantic shown from GFS for quite a few days now regarded as too progressive in the shorter range charts. However, signs from longer term model ( second half of January to possibly turn strongly negative NAO ) but that's a long way off. This week still shows some sort of battle ground scenario with nothing certain. A case for the block to rejuvenate  to the NE is certainly not discarded by the team. Their own model still persists a low formation around SW England/ Brittany  on Thursday and forms to the north of the PFJ and to exit right into Europe. Pressure values are a bit lower than shown on todays other bigger models. If this is the case scenario , cyclonic vorticity would slow down as the 300mb jet splits and decreases and perhaps not sink away south as quickly.. Lower heights over Europe would help to reinforce the heights back north again, so a possible E or NEly  is still an option in the forecast towards next weekend for Blighty. Basically , nothing certain and surprise developments likely as early as 96h, so keep options open folks. Remember this time last week the models were showing lots of rain and frontal activity but in reality it looks like being a much drier week. Hope this helps.

 C

Thanks for the update mate!!knife edge situation for the end of the week then!!12z may throw a few more surprises then!!

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13 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Just spoke to the nice female resort forecaster. Latest thoughts , specifically addressed to UK . Firstly, the advance of the Atlantic shown from GFS for quite a few days now regarded as too progressive in the shorter range charts. However, signs from longer term model ( second half of January to possibly turn strongly negative NAO ) but that's a long way off. This week still shows some sort of battle ground scenario with nothing certain. A case for the block to rejuvenate  to the NE is certainly not discarded by the team. Their own model still persists a low formation around SW England/ Brittany  on Thursday and forms to the north of the PFJ and to exit right into Europe. Pressure values are a bit lower than shown on todays other bigger models. If this is the case scenario , cyclonic vorticity would slow down as the 300mb jet splits and decreases and perhaps not sink away south as quickly.. Lower heights over Europe would help to reinforce the heights back north again, so a possible E or NEly  is still an option in the forecast towards next weekend for Blighty. Basically , nothing certain and surprise developments likely as early as 96h, so keep options open folks. Remember this time last week the models were showing lots of rain and frontal activity but in reality it looks like being a much drier week. Hope this helps.

 C

Thank you carintian for your continued input. The text in bold is the key for me although I know it is too far to call with certainty.

On a less serious note, why do you specify that the resort forecaster is a nice female?? :)

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7 minutes ago, karyo said:

Thank you carintian for your continued input. The text in bold is the key for me although I know it is too far to call with certainty.

On a less serious note, why do you specify that the resort forecaster is a nice female?? :)

read C's previous post when she answered his call

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13 minutes ago, karyo said:

Thank you carintian for your continued input. The text in bold is the key for me although I know it is too far to call with certainty.

On a less serious note, why do you specify that the resort forecaster is a nice female?? :)

Think he fancies her🤔!!!

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Think he fancies her🤔!!!

If I was only 40 years younger ! No happy with Mrs C.

 C

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5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

If I was only 40 years younger ! No happy with Mrs C.

 C

Fair enough mate :)

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36 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Just spoke to the nice female resort forecaster. Latest thoughts , specifically addressed to UK . Firstly, the advance of the Atlantic shown from GFS for quite a few days now regarded as too progressive in the shorter range charts. However, signs from longer term model ( second half of January to possibly turn strongly negative NAO ) but that's a long way off. This week still shows some sort of battle ground scenario with nothing certain. A case for the block to rejuvenate  to the NE is certainly not discarded by the team. Their own model still persists a low formation around SW England/ Brittany  on Thursday and forms to the north of the PFJ and to exit right into Europe. Pressure values are a bit lower than shown on todays other bigger models. If this is the case scenario , cyclonic vorticity would slow down as the 300mb jet splits and decreases and perhaps not sink away south as quickly.. Lower heights over Europe would help to reinforce the heights back north again, so a possible E or NEly  is still an option in the forecast towards next weekend for Blighty. Basically , nothing certain and surprise developments likely as early as 96h, so keep options open folks. Remember this time last week the models were showing lots of rain and frontal activity but in reality it looks like being a much drier week. Hope this helps.

 C

How unusual is it for a low to exit the jet to the right?  Presumably this relies on a confluent trough, but I was under the impression that these often are to be associated with a diffluent ridge, which usually generates anticyclones?

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As always this forum is a great daily read and has been for me for many years (as a lurker 😂)

out of interest, it seems pretty apparent that our little islands general weather pattern (long wave pattern)  is set by events far afield, has there ever been an occurrence eg where a strong block sets up home to our nw/n/ne/e where this becomes a major player,  a driver in the N.H. pattern or is it always as a “consequence of”

and many thanks to those who provide me with such a good read, JH, GP, Tamara, Corinthian, man with a beard, nick sussex and many more, and of course who could forget the people’s princess !! The snow blind Steve Murr, the man of eternal optimism who I must say, at 72 out with a chance of snow has us all glued to his charts and video’s, I’ve learnt over the years that snow is imminent  if Steve produces a video or crayoned drawings of what is about to happen.. many thanks, dave

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icon-0-90.png?08-12
Charts like this shows why there has been talk of an easterly.... 

Edited by frosty ground

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4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

icon-0-90.png?08-12
Charts like this show why there has been talk of an easterly.... 

My god that looks brilliant first up but ot just struggles to undercut from there over the last few runs!!lets see what this run brings!

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

My god that looks brilliant first up but ot just struggles to undercut from there over the last few runs!!lets see what this run brings!

icon-0-114.png?08-12

no issue on this run, but this is the ICON so how much weight this is given is well up to those with more knowledge.

for fun thou the 06 bettered the 0z and the 12z is bettering the 06z.... Upgrades all the way :rofl:

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

icon-0-114.png?08-12

no issue on this run, but this is the ICON so how much weight this is given is well up to those with more knowledge.

for fun thou the 06 bettered the 0z and the 12z is bettering the 06z.... Upgrades all the way :rofl:

Wow didnt expect!!beautifull!!please gfs follow the icon!!

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