Model output discussion - into 2018

[snowbunting]

11 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Just relatively briefly from me simply to wish members a Happy New Year

For what little it is worth, I would repeat the mantra I always used to suggest, and advise keeping some powder back in terms of too much intra suite NWP analysis - with some way to go with this upcoming evolution.    Tropical forcing is coming back into being with the MJO heading into and programmed to head through the Indian Ocean and impacting AAM tendency upwards again. In simplest layperson terms, this sequence is pivotal to how much amplification flux there is downstream to create any meaningful chance of cold air advection from the NE in the further outlook.

But a reminder of that Phase 4 Global Wind Oscillation which shows the possible prize.

Its a case of can we properly get there and if so how long can it hold?   Failure returns the pattern back to similar to what we currently have with Canadian vortex domination and downstream cyclonic cold rain and wind (and occasional snow away from the south and chiefly at northern altitude).

To part with: Composites need careful reading between the lines in terms of interpretation as much as NWP interpretations of signals. But the GWO doesn't lie whatever phase it passes through.

I have no idea what most of what you are saying actually means but that is not as important as wishing you a very happy and healthy 2018. 

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

im sure the met would go thru all the data before they make the current foorecast. after all they do have lot mor data than we have folks.  A very happy new year every one.

Happy new year syed!

GEFS show the op was a mild wild outlier for quite a portion ..

[CK1981]

16 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Thats a cracking set of ens.....

?

Totally agree! Look how the mean is dropping too. Plenty to be positive about, methinks ?

[northwestsnow]

I'm really hoping the EC det is not ANOTHER mild run- i'm sick of seeing these mild ops now...

Yet again the gfs 12z is much milder than the mean between the 6th and 9th!!

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, the ens  look great..just highlights why there shouldn't be such a knee jerk reaction to every individual op run..I'm positive about our chances of another wintry period on the way!!

 

I prefer seeing these mediocre sort of runs now than getting stellar runs that then get downgraded creating much weeping and gnashing of the old dentures. This way round we stand a good chance of some of the colder runs turning firming up more in the reliable and verifying, more chance of verifying that we round in my opinion. Bit of my mad psychology there. 

[MR EXTREMES]

Cold runs keep coming.

Tamara thanks GP thanks for the added benefit to this forum.

And nick Sussex Steve murr amongst many many others thanks.

Happy new year.

And some winter wonderlands still being shown from the models.

North blocking I reckon.

I await the party pooper ECM with interest.

[SMU]

The 12z Aperge looks pretty good only running out to 114

[mb018538]

To my less than expert eye...

 

that screaming jet just looks too strong for any high In our vicinity to do much....looks like being quickly blasted away.

[Tn9]

6 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Feb 1996.

 

historical event. There’s many more - Jan 82, March 13 & so on

 

When is cold front not a cold front.. Never... But it can introduce warmer air to a cold situation.. Strangely.... :-) 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mb018538 said:

To my less than expert eye...

 

that screaming jet just looks too strong for any high In our vicinity to do much....looks like being quickly blasted away.

This is the timeframe the op is a pretty big outlier so fingers crossed its putting to much energy in the northern arm.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

The 12z Aperge looks pretty good only running out to 114

Yes that looks better steve

Eyes down for a better EC det!!! 

[SMU]

Just while it’s quiet

 

anyone got the link to the old

wetter charts we used to use about 5 years ago

they were from the GFS & had the snow fall in pink & snow depths over layed with the number so uk would be white with a small 22 in the deepest snow areas etc !

it was a wetter2 link or wetterkarte or wetter de.

 

edit found it.

http://www1.wetter3.de/animation.html

Edited December 31, 2017 by Steve Murr

[nick sussex]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just while it’s quiet

 

anyone got the link to the old

wetter charts we used to use about 5 years ago

they were from the GFS & had the snow fall in pink & snow depths over layed with the number so uk would be white with a small 22 in the deepest snow areas etc !

it was a wetter2 link or wetterkarte or wetter de.

I think it’s this one Steve:

http://www1.wetter3.de/

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by nick sussex

[SMU]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think it’s this one Steve:

http://www1.wetter3.de/

 

Cheers 

the good old days

I remember 2010 when there was some 50s on there over the UK

[comet]

1 hour ago, comet said:

Very interesting quote from Fergie . Unfortunately this does not tie in with what the 12z gfs run is showing or the ukmo for that matter.

 

Still puzzled by the quote by Fergie having looked through all of the ens I can not see any that reveal the synoptics that he speaks of in the time frame he mentions. Perhaps they will reveal themselves as we go through the week.

[northwestsnow]

EC looks better at 120, certainly better than GFS!

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, comet said:

Still puzzled by the quote by Fergie having looked through all of the ens I can not see any that reveal the synoptics that he speaks of in the time frame he mentions. Perhaps they will reveal themselves as we go through the week.

I will have a look at TN9s post

 

ECM 120 pretty good..

but not half as good as this brutal NE snowstorm - oh to be somewhere like Lake placid !!

Nothjng marginal for the whole east coast

Edited December 31, 2017 by Steve Murr

[comet]

ECM at t120 looking very good so far

Edited December 31, 2017 by comet

[snowray]

ECM T144, very nice.

[feb1991blizzard]

Much better!!!

 

[SMU]

FWIW the ECM feels about right to start the cold @day 6-

its whether the deep cold can make it south of say Leeds etc-

ECM looks good though- here is the UK chart- snow from the borders upwards 

[karyo]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Much better!!!

 

Yes, the low is not round and it allows the cold uppers to move into northern and some central areas by 144 hours.

[booferking]

Finally EC op gives us something to head into new year with a smile on are face.

[Day 10]

For everyone to view them side by side GEM, GFS, UKMO & ECM 144.

[johnholmes]

41 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

To my less than expert eye...

 

that screaming jet just looks too strong for any high In our vicinity to do much....looks like being quickly blasted away.

IF the GFS is correct, IF