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Model output discussion - into 2018

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If it wasn't for that shortwave to the East of Iceland knackering it, this would have been a corking run.

It's the one west of Iceland that concerns me, the more it sticks to the PV chunk the better but, this run, it's separated itself again. Still time for recovery but that could spoil any clear flow.

Edited by ukpaul

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1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

Mr Hammond told me 'Give it time....'

Please can you explain. I have read the name Johm Hammond a few times on here today,  Are you referring to a well known weather presenter? If so what has he said? thanks😀

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Red herring springs to mind. This is a close but no nirvana moment - again! We are just too far west - again! The cold pool will make it to western Germany - again! But no further. This may seem a touch arrogant but they are my thoughts based on the current model projections. 

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1 minute ago, Grimsby Snow Lover said:

Please can you explain. I have read the name Johm Hammond a few times on here today,  Are you referring to a well known weather presenter? If so what has he said? thanks😀

Yes him. I said on Twitter that the been were saying mild and no snow mentioned. And he said 'give it time... '

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2 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

It's the one west of Iceland that concerns me, the more it sticks to the PV chunk the better but, this run, it's separated itself again. Still time for recovery but that would spoil any clear flow.

I think that's the one that causes this one to the E of Iceland to develop tbh though.

gfsnh-0-96.png?18

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Re Mr Hammond and time: Are we talking about creating dinosaurs or the potential for a cold spell?

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1 minute ago, ukpaul said:

It's the one west of Iceland that concerns me, the more it sticks to the PV chunk the better but, this run, it's separated itself again. Still time for recovery but that would spoil any clear flow.

Eh!,the more it splits from the main chunk the better as it sends more energy south.

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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Eh!,the more it splits from the main chunk the better as it sends more energy south.

No, as we saw on one of the runs yesterday, it just acts as a spoiler and holds up the main chunk of PV that is getting shunted our way on a NW/SE axis. On that run it became jumbled with another system and mixed out the colder air.

EDIT: Actually looking pretty good now, eastern pacific ridging positioned well, azores high being suppressed, incoming system becoming elongated. What could possibly go wrong?!?

Edited by ukpaul

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25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just one last thing (promise I wont bother anyone any more), not actually sure exactly what frictional torque (just seen it is a pre-cursor to mountain torque) is but presume its linked to the GWO and angular momentum (is it the frictional effect of wind against the earth surface?) - I  already know the very basics of MT, although cant remember which one is _+ and -, whether high pressure to the east of mountain trange or west.

Positive torque transferred to the atmosphere with a ridge to the east and trough to the west of the mountain range.

Frictionals = yes: surface friction created by atmosphere on the surface. The relationship between atmosphere and earth has a see-saw motion - in perfect equilibrium both atmosphere and earth would rotate in perfect harmony... but forcings from weather systems, mountains, ocean temperatures all work to put this out of balance. Frictionals constantly work to try and regain that equilibrium and so you can be sure that if GLAAM is negative there will be a positive frictional response to try and rebalance things. Analysis has shown that when frictionals rise they create poleward waves and these then create mountain torque events - therefore usually a MT torque spike will follow a FT spike.

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And just to add to infuriation, Ben Stokes has now been added to Englands T20 squad when they said the reason he wasn't selected for the Ashes was because of his case not being settled yet - more lies and BS from the ECB.

How does he feel about the ECM?

 

or is he in the GFS camp?

Edited by steveinsussex

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Very progressive, great for northerners. has been shown before around 15th for a cold westerly, transient snow for south maybe too, best hope I think of snow falling

gfs-0-162.png?18

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The jet is now being forecast to go s/e past and over us instead of the split to the north from earliet

Screenshot_20180107-221748.png

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pm air snow in earlier again this run - trend getting closer

gfs-2-168.png?18

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17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

too progressive, 

gfs-0-120.png?18

Looks right in line with the ensemble means and EPS means to me..

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First run today that's weakened the Scandi block.  Slider incoming and to be fair the uppers seem pretty good for the NW

gfsnh-0-156.png?18 gfsnh-1-168.png?18

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Easterly not on, never has been, we should all pack up and go to sleep. Silly bunch aren’t we. 🙄

ECM, UKMO and even the gfs show that there is just a chance we might get an easterly in the 6-10 day period, not a high chance ill admit, but it’s on the table 

heres the big 3 at 120

4675B5FB-D5EC-40A1-9419-FF908BA21757.thumb.png.4c8b562da926d2eca5e9a1585e730f58.pngD5611317-8EF4-4BE0-A9BE-A5C5FBF28AAE.thumb.gif.13d817dc9720b84564102d27d8a8c2b3.gif6412752F-B46D-4376-BF52-A92B2FB1FE29.thumb.png.2c76510ae4d2ef5f01a66b1e1c93f823.png

So many Oracles, I’m wondering which one has the key to the Matrix!! 

 

 

Edited by karlos1983

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Jet starting to take a dive at 174h, could be okay, still but more likely taking most of England out of snow range if it doesn't increase the angle.

gfsnh-5-174_yxd3.png

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10 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

No, as we saw on one of the runs yesterday, it just acts as a spoiler and holds up the main chunk of PV that is getting shunted our way on a NW/SE axis. On that run it became jumbled with another system and mixed out the colder air.

EDIT: Actually looking pretty good now, eastern pacific ridging positioned well, azores high being suppressed, incoming system becoming elongated. What could possibly go wrong?!?

You was mentioning the one to the west which was attached to the main lobe,i wasn't mentioning the spoiler running in front and traveling NE,i was talking about the low south of the main chunk breaking off SE'wards.

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