Model output discussion - into 2018

[Jason M]

GEFS out to 192 (not worth looking further).

Two prtbs get close to offering something interesting but none deliver. I get the sense that the block is stronger across the whole suite than was the case earlier but the signal is for MLB rather than HLB with the core of the heights gradually slipping south over time.

Maybe ECM will deliver its usual pot of cold at the end of the ten day rainbow 

 

[SMU]

More & more GEFS starting to resemble the UKMO @144

[karlos1983]

Not a bad +120 mean if one is trying to achieve a flow from the right ?

Edited January 7, 2018 by karlos1983

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

GEFS out to 192 (not worth looking further).

Two prtbs get close to offering something interesting but none deliver. I get the sense that the block is stronger across the whole suite than was the case earlier but the signal is for MLB rather than HLB with the core of the heights gradually slipping south over time.

Maybe ECM will deliver its usual pot of cold at the end of the ten day rainbow 

 

It’s about transition not wholesale change

[Dennis]

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not a bad +120 mean if one is trying to achieve a flow from the far right ?

Oh no. Not the Weather Nazis!

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

More & more GEFS starting to resemble the UKMO @144

Steve now on to the ecm and it really needs to carry on from this morning or even better!!enough of the downgrades and then playin catch up afterwards!!gfs control looks really good up to 168 hours!!

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, Dennis said:

As I see it, that low will dive south east to reinforce the block and edge the pattern westward?

[bobbydog]

"omnipresent" or not, this is worth a mention....

even just because it looks pretty.

[The Beast From The East]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

More & more GEFS starting to resemble the UKMO @144

Hi Steve, some are saying that the met are not going with there own model and not going with an easterly in there outlook. What's your thoughts and gut feeling the way you see it paning out?

 

Thanks.

[Frosty.]

Realistically I think there is more chance of a cold westerly than a very cold easterly beyond the next week or so..won't be a popular opinion but going by the extended ensembles, cool / cold zonality is more likely as things stand with the cold block shunted away eastwards. 

Edited January 7, 2018 by Frosty.

[Weather-history]

GFS 20th ensemble

How often do you see a pool of -10hpa 850s coming in from the west?

 

Edited January 7, 2018 by Weather-history

[The Enforcer]

36 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Meanwhile another GFS12z another ? 

Carinthian was saying this was modelled for 20th Jan. Has this now shuffled back again?

[bobbydog]

Just now, Weather-history said:

GFS 20th ensemble

How often do you see a pool of -10hpa 850s coming in from the west?

 

yes. even if the 'beast from the east' fails, we may get the 'snowfest from the west'....

[Chris101]

What i find really interesting is the extremely remote possibility looking at some recent 850 charts being put up of two cold airmasses from different directions (NW+ENE) colliding over the UK.

Has this ever happened before? I only ever remember milder sliders that wrap a bit of cold round as they slide but also mix their milder air in from the southern flank

[BlazeStorm]

Here is my two cents. (Sorry, pence)

 

There is some support for the Scandinavian high to temporarily retreat east (into Russia) Monday-Wednesday, before re-amplifying in the west on Thursday. -I'll use the UKMO as an example here, but it's also being hinted at by the GEM, ECM, and I don't expect it to take long for the GFS to follow the trend. 

 

 

Yes, clearly the potential for the Atlantic to take hold thereafter. But easterlies can come out of the blue in a very short space of time, and the models are renowned for dismissing such blocking features. Not to say I firmly believe this will happen. There's just a chance. I'll follow the models until Tuesday evening before making any further judgements!

 

Anyway, the fact there is a Scandinavian high knocking about gives me hope for this winter's future, especially if it's happy enough to hang around up there.

 

-And to those using this thread as the moans, ramps and banter thread. Please, this is not a social media page. Refrain from saying anything on this thread unless it is intentionally informative and analytical. It really is tiresome reading through pages and pages, only to find a small handful of genuinely interesting posts. 

 

BlaaazeStorm

 

[The Enforcer]

34 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

You can't because that is the max chart.

But you can compare the previous chart which shows less cold coming from under the high due to orientation of it being slightly less favourable than its 0z output.

How does the current UKMO 12z 850 chart at T+120 compare with yesterday's 12z 850 chart at T+144?

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

What i find really interesting is the extremely remote possibility looking at some recent 850 charts being put up of two cold airmasses from different directions (NW+ENE) colliding over the UK.

Has this ever happened before? I only ever remember milder sliders that wrap a bit of cold round as they slide but also mix their milder air in from the southern flank

Mid January 2013? We had cold air coming off the continent and cold air coming in from the west.

There it is

Edited January 7, 2018 by Weather-history

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

What i find really interesting is the extremely remote possibility looking at some recent 850 charts being put up of two cold airmasses from different directions (NW+ENE) colliding over the UK.

Has this ever happened before? I only ever remember milder sliders that wrap a bit of cold round as they slide but also mix their milder air in from the southern flank

Yes, it even has a name ?

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occluded_front

[SMU]

22 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

Hi Steve, some are saying that the met are not going with there own model and not going with an easterly in there outlook. What's your thoughts and gut feeling the way you see it paning out?

 

Thanks.

This will change if the MOGREPS & ECM 12z update swing to the raw UKMO output- this will then filter into tomorrow’s update ( maybe tonight’s )

BIG ECM coming up

westwars corrections is the watch!

[Snowman.]

7 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

How does the current UKMO 12z 850 chart at T+120 compare with yesterday's 12z 850 chart at T+144?

Today

Yesterday

Still amazing but it's getting to crunch time and GFS still isn't on board. 

Edited January 7, 2018 by SN0WM4N

[TEITS]

51 minutes ago, Danny* said:

The -12c temperature are on a single deterministic run on a single model, It's hardly a surprise the Met isn't jumping over themselves with forecasting an Easterly. 

The most likely outcome when taking all the ensembles/outputs from the last few days and today remains that of cold zonal, not bitter cold Easterly winds.

Surely the most likely outcome based on the last few days is we really do not know because of the massive changes we have seen these past 48hrs.

UKMO is excellent yet again!

Edited January 7, 2018 by TEITS

[Day 10]

At 72 the ECM sided with UKMO again.

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, jvenge said:

I could quite easily believe the UKMO over the GFS, but over the GEFS is a big ask.

Seriously? GEFS have been even worse of late even more volatile some support is there anywho. Currently I’d say there is a chance of a ‘beast’ but less than 10% chance atm. Some of you folk, sure are pessimistic. Nothing wrong with UKMO it looks like there’s going to be stand-off there will be only one winner models underestimate cold evolution..

Edited January 7, 2018 by Daniel*

[winterof79]

39 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

"omnipresent" or not, this is worth a mention....

even just because it looks pretty.

It is the toastiest I have seen for ages granted.