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Model output discussion - into 2018

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9 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Its always interesting the read the differing views of posters looking at the output. I'm slways intrigued by the notion of what this forum would have been like in the run to 1947 or 1963 all other things being equal in terms of available model output etc.

Wretched Azores high and winter is over would have been the call In December 1946

archives-1946-12-27-0-0.png

 

 

Strange similarity don't you think as the new year came in

archivesnh-1946-12-31-0-0.png

 

Few days later

archives-1947-1-8-0-0.png

We can but dream.....come on Scandi you can do it

archivesnh-1947-1-10-0-0.png

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gfs-0-78.png?6 gfs-0-72.png?12

All the small things... they count in situations like this. The LP by Iceland is further west and as Steve has just noted, the LP by the UK is separating a little better.

How much it counts, well that comes down to the model as much as anything. Some models will adjust more than others following such tweaks.

A truly fascinating period upon us with major shifts of momentum and forcing patterns too and fro.

gfs-0-78.png?12

Well then - a closed isobar for the southern LP already. I have been skeptical of our easterly chances (for several days now, a chilly ridge outcome has been my 'safe estimate') for sanity's sake but I am starting to wonder if the westerlies might just be subdued enough in our vicinity... hmm.

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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

The updated ICON brings a cold westerly by the end of the run (180 hours). No sign of an easterly there.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=1&map=0&archive=0 

A cold westerly ties in with the GEFS 6z mean which shows cold zonality  becoming more likely beyond the week ahead!:)

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4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

gfs-0-78.png?6 gfs-0-72.png?12

All the small things... they count in situations like this. The LP by Iceland is further west and as Steve has just noted, the LP by the UK is separating a little better.

How much it counts, well that comes down to the model as much as anything. Some models will adjust more than others following such tweaks.

A truly fascinating period upon us with major shifts of momentum and forcing patterns too and fro.

gfs-0-78.png?12

Well then - a closed isobar for the southern LP already. I have been skeptical of our easterly chances (for several days now, a chilly ridge outcome has been my 'safe estimate') for sanity's sake but I am starting to wonder if the westerlies might just be subdued enough in our vicinity... hmm.

Yes it has shifted Scandi heights 100 miles west,not much but West.

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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

The updated ICON brings a cold westerly by the end of the run (180 hours). No sign of an easterly there.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=1&map=0&archive=0 

It’s cannon fodder only to be used to self soothe when the rest aren’t up to much!:D

It actually follows the GFS 06hrs run in terms of the Pacific area losing that lobe of high pressure which kept the PV further back to the nw.

Lets hope the GFS 12 hrs run keeps flipping in that respect!

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gfs-0-90.png?6 gfs-0-84.png?12

Further to the above - a notable extension west in the higher heights reaching NW from Scandinavia. 

The real issue for our weather prospects is not so much whether it stays mostly dry and chilly Mon-Fri (this is a side-effect of the blocking adjustments but can also occur via more ridging from the Azores which is not sufficient in itself; the ridge needs to go more N than NE), but whether the blocking high can get sufficiently far north and west during that period to face down the stronger push from the west that remains likely for the weekend due to the propagation of anomalies associated with the GLAAM drop. 

The GLAAM/GWO change fires the arrow, the blocking high raises the shield.

Actually, it's more like a trebuchet shot coming in so it's going to take something impressive to win out!

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UKMO/GFS day 4

UN96-21.GIF?07-16   gfsnh-0-96.png?12

Still large differences here, the cold air already starting to cut underneath the high from the east as far north as the Baltic with the ridge decining away towards the Middle east, the GFS better but still not angling that cold air as sharply as the UKMO.

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UKMO no backdown. Past three 12z with the first being the most recent.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions  Archives Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions  Archives

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The block to me is further nw again at t96!! Small steps but they are in the right direction run after run.

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UKMO still wants to play at 120

D119B4B6-4B64-44B5-895A-DB03BE32C55B.thumb.gif.dbfbedd9a58ce8d4e79fec14e7d0baa0.gif

Nice WAA should aid the block!

Edited by karlos1983

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Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

UKMO/GFS day 4

UN96-21.GIF?07-16   gfsnh-0-96.png?12

Still large differences here, the cold air already starting to cut underneath the high from the east as far north as the Baltic with the ridge decining away towards the Middle east, the GFS better but still not angling that cold air as sharply as the UKMO.

It is amazing how resolutely the focal point of the HP circulation is projected to be in the respective locations that the two models are running with.

Seems that GFS just won't stop taking a weak disturbance over the high during days 3-4 which looks to be at least part of the reason for the HP focusing further SE despite the undercutting low having now come nearly in line with UKMO.

As far as I can see, both UKMO and the 00z ECM took that weak disturbance SE to undercut the ridge alongside the feature by southern UK. 

So we have got GFS more or less into line with one of the features, but not with the other. 

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UKMO at 144 is close to brilliant.

1717E8A3-8090-4C97-93B9-A01357D573C6.thumb.gif.cb802d3e106583a35f4fb6c3dbac06d5.gif

Has to be said the UKMO has been incredibly consistent over recent days.... what is yet unknown is has it been consistently right or wrong..... TBC

Edited by karlos1983

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UKMO 144 is a bit of a downgrade it has to be said.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

 

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Not a whole lot of change from the GFS 120 6z to 12z. UKMO still looking good.

gfsnh-0-126.thumb.png.e5cf646c82fb9ef132619ca00366b1e1.pnggfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.7b8257177f1aa034ad31f6812375f327.pngUN120-21.thumb.GIF.59e628a05a374fc178838f6f2d22300e.GIF

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UW144-21.GIF?07-17

Okay, I will stop bombarding the forum after this one :laugh:.

UKMO +144 is oh so very poised. You can see the cold air to the east journeying over but that N. Atlantic trough is mighty strong and flat on the S side. It resembles the sort of mega-standoff charts that are usually seen in the further reaches of GFS runs :unsure2:.

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& last one from me

06z GFs v 12z GFS 126/132

A391D32A-6E3F-4FBD-AC24-F3390177C0A5.thumb.png.6a4a1d6cf01e7e7fbe76836d4bbdde1e.png3FEA7D22-2D21-4A98-B1CA-50803B1E17D6.thumb.png.cc228e17004ef3c95cc8c1b709a25c47.png

 

southerly flow V Easterly flow ...

deeper italian low 

UKMO... :o

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Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Scandi rearing up to the Atlantic and saying no as colder uppers move under the block

Edited by winterof79

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO at 144 is close to brilliant.

1717E8A3-8090-4C97-93B9-A01357D573C6.thumb.gif.cb802d3e106583a35f4fb6c3dbac06d5.gif

Yes, just need the High shifted 2 or 3 hundred miles West, which is possible at 6 days range. 

Edited by mountain shadow

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO at 144 is close to brilliant.

1717E8A3-8090-4C97-93B9-A01357D573C6.thumb.gif.cb802d3e106583a35f4fb6c3dbac06d5.gif

Has to be said the UKMO has been incredibly consistent over recent days.... what is yet unknown is has it been consistently right or wrong..... TBC

Yes very good the block is extending west.

And that cold pool is also moving from the east. It’s funny when you first look between T120and T144hrs it looks like it’s gone a bit east but on closer view you can see the pressure expanding further west .

Edited by nick sussex

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