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Model output discussion - into 2018

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11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

In other words, it's the weather that is biased, and the models are trying to conform to what is in effect realty? Much like a human would if placed in the same position...

We, on the other hand, are constantly trying to force reality to comply with our own private wish-lists...?:D

I just want a decent easterly with snow showers and severe frosts (not too much to ask is it?) ..but the models are not showing that at the moment.. Still, the ukmo continues to dangle a carrot at T+144 hours.:)

UKMOPNH00_144_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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24 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

i thought as @johnholmes said, the models have no climatology built in, with the DECIDER 'adding' climatology in its calculations?

Edited 

Edited by Steve Murr

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56 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The model runs are fed into a product called DECIDER which has historical weather regimes in it. Ian Fergusson mentioned this a couple of winters ago and there was a video of how it worked. 

Iirc that was glosea5, I was trying to find that presentation again but couldn't maybe someone else has a link

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1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

The model runs are fed into a product called DECIDER which has historical weather regimes in it. Ian Fergusson mentioned this a couple of winters ago and there was a video of how it worked. 

Thank you for that, my inside knowledge of UK Met is much less that it was, no link now into the main forecast room. I found this from Googling, It's a Met O link. It leaves me still thinking that the daily synoptic outputs from UK Met are still not fed this list possible scenarios. To me it seems to suggest that the 6-15 day and further out into seasonal do? The basis is what in the old days we called empirical data, a bit like the forecast tool I have posted in here quite some time ago about the probability of the Azores high migrating to Scandinavia. There are a fair number of other examples we used. Anyway thank you and here is the link (TEITS you might be interested in this?)

I give up trying to show the correct link, anyone interested, and mods especially, its in the shorter range Met O part of the forum.

Edited by johnholmes
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at the 120 Bracknell fax..

Cheers mate...so what the hell are Exeter talking about ?

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Come on models get your acts together....All this talk of climatology and endless definite possibilities of an immanent beastly/easterly on it's way is starting to get a little :crazy:

All a know is that I would love to see that cold air over eastern parts of Europe 'AT SOME POINT' just make it to the UK :)

tempresult_qll0.gif

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According to the GEFS 6z mean we are looking at predominantly cold zonality though low res, especially further north with a generally polar influence with a risk of snow at times.❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄:) :cold:

Edited by Frosty.
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53 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Read Gael force post

Steve pretty big gfs 12z coming out now you would think!!if it improves then i think more than likely ecm and ukmo are on to something here!!if it doesnt then ecm and ukmo are probably leading us up the garden path here again!!it has to start on the 12z now!!!icon coming out now!!!

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20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Cheers mate...so what the hell are Exeter talking about ?

Well that was based on yesterday’s 12z run and they generally don’t amend the raw output unless they really feel the need to

If the 12z run is consistent then tonight’s issue will be worth waiting for to see if they go with it 

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

According to the GEFS 6z mean we are looking at cold zonality though low res, especially further north with risk of snow at times.❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄:) :cold:

Indeed @Frosty., I was about to post the same sort of post!

A general outlook next week from all the Models so far from this morning is we basically have a chance of 2 scenarios...

1. A less pronounced Scandinavian block with a higher chance of Atlantic Zonal attacks, but moving more NW to SE direction. Akin to December 2017. (GFS is still out on its own with this)

2. A stronger Scandinavian block with a threat of a Easterly wind bring much colder uppers in from Russia. (ECM/UKMO)

Either way, the block never really leaves to the NE until post 192h on all models. With the GFS then going for cold zonal again in FI.

The GFS (as @Steve Murr  has been predicting for sometime now) is slowly moving more towards the ECM and UKMO, especially in the reliable timeframe.

I think the ECM needs time to adjust that breakdown, but that's miles off for now.

But as always, get the cold in first! (Its already below average for most of the UK today!!!!!!)

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31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Cheers mate...so what the hell are Exeter talking about ?

Not quite sure why so much talk about 120 fax chart it fits in nicely with there forecast you can see the fronts approaching Ireland & Scotland thursday then likely to give transient spell of snow across the Scottish mountains later on Friday and into Saturday then after it's likely zonal and maybe cold zonal at that?

Screenshot_20180107-150506.png

Edited by booferking

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1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

How this block breaks is rather as simple as models suggest, and expect flips at short lead times” is very telling. 

I always think stick to the models 5-7 days out and watch the story unfold. The rest no one knows until the next models run come out and the general consensus

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11 minutes ago, shaky said:

Steve pretty big gfs 12z coming out now you would think!!if it improves then i think more than likely ecm and ukmo are on to something here!!if it doesnt then ecm and ukmo are probably leading us up the garden path here again!!it has to start on the 12z now!!!icon coming out now!!!

Yes - I would like to zoom in on the T96 timeframe that’s where most of the GFS is seemingly doing its damage

273A913E-2F1B-4148-8B87-3DB0DC7CFA55.thumb.png.c0a9dabe742ec4a12db9611ba0e15308.png

 

The 2 shortwave need better seperation which in turn will allow the Scandi block to naturally filter NW...

icon better up to 66-

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8 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

I always think stick to the models 5-7 days out and watch the story unfold. The rest no one knows until the next models run come out and the general consensus

Personally with current synoptics I wouldn't look more than a couple of day into models and even the second day could change a bit.

Edited by alexisj9
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It should be noted that there has been little cold air associated with this blocking as it has been modelled thus far

if deeply cold uppers are advected into the equation around the south of the block then breaking it down becomes even more of an issue for the models 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

It should be noted that there has been little cold air associated with this blocking as it has been modelled thus far

if deeply cold uppers are advected into the equation around the south of the block then breaking it down becomes even more of an issue for the models 

Isn't this due to colder air being denser?

 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

It should be noted that there has been little cold air associated with this blocking as it has been modelled thus far

if deeply cold uppers are advected into the equation around the south of the block then breaking it down becomes even more of an issue for the models 

What about this morning's UKMO output though - decent cold pool in place by t144?

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So the focus time T90 ish

iKon 06z V Ikon 12z

notice the Easterly flow a lot stronger into Europe...

& magically the block is further north

02A0790C-8D01-47CB-AB0E-D63F053D5650.thumb.png.9d46d476e540ec905fc6de1da6ee5f3a.png9151F249-ECB3-4AC3-85A3-00A6C8DD5F93.thumb.png.c1bdcc6cbe0f6cad6ed8c502b4e88f71.png

Edited by Steve Murr
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Its always interesting the read the differing views of posters looking at the output. I'm slways intrigued by the notion of what this forum would have been like in the run to 1947 or 1963 all other things being equal in terms of available model output etc.

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52 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Iirc that was glosea5, I was trying to find that presentation again but couldn't maybe someone else has a link

Glosea5 just recently added to the mix. Models and runs are shown below.

Quote

Decider is a flexible package, designed to suit your needs. We can update your Decider subscriptions with any of the following options:

  • Web access to ECMWF 15 day forecasts – updated twice daily
  • Web access to GEFS 16 day forecasts – updated four times daily
  • Web access to ECMWF 32 day forecasts – updated twice weekly
  • Web access to GloSea 51 day forecasts – updated daily
  • Web access to daily historic weather regime classifications from 1850 to present (available to download in CSV format). This data can be used to correlate weather regimes with a parameter of interest where historic records exist, such as weather observations, cases of high impact weather and even energy demand or supply. Once a relationship has been established, it becomes possible to forecast the likely consequences given a forecast for a particular weather regime. The number of specific forecast applications is potentially large.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/industry/energy/decider

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So the focus time T90 ish

iKon 06z V Ikon 12z

notice the Easterly flow a lot stronger into Europe...

& magically the block is further north

02A0790C-8D01-47CB-AB0E-D63F053D5650.thumb.png.9d46d476e540ec905fc6de1da6ee5f3a.png9151F249-ECB3-4AC3-85A3-00A6C8DD5F93.thumb.png.c1bdcc6cbe0f6cad6ed8c502b4e88f71.png

lets hope the rest follow. its a tight situation to get to this easterly. despite my own doubts, i really do hope you have called this right. :)

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1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

lets hope the rest follow. its a tight situation to get to this easterly. despite my own doubts, i really do hope you have called this right. :)

So do I-

GFS through 66 has better seperation this far -

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