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Model output discussion - into 2018

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Notice the idea of colder weather still exists for the s and e which is obviously an easterly of some description..so although it's a low probability, it can't be ruled out and it could still grow into something bigger and better!:)..ukmo  00z springs to mind!!

Edited by Frosty.

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@Tamara,

 

That aam plot comes from somewhere on the University of Albany website? If some other figures yesterday also had some weirdness happening, seems like some data was missing making the graphs look extreme 

Edited by ArHu3

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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A good post based on reasoning of which You couldn’t argue based on the information that you present.

There is however the small matter of ‘human intervention & forecasting’ involved here as well as experience. That’s the difference between someone who chooses to solely rely on what a model says V someone who blends what’s a model says with ‘experience’ of said models & when they perform poorly, so whilst the data you have forms your opionion - all it does is reinforce mine which is model output + blend of experience.

So let’s be clear from Day 1 I think both me ( & TEITS - when he joined the party ) have forecast a ‘decent’ continental Easterly to reach the UK -circa -6 850 or below - The timeline which as with most cold spells has slightly elongated due to model progression ( haven’t got time to explain now ) is still due Thurs / Fri.

Let’s not forget all the ‘teleconnection’ crew decided it wasn’t going to happen - based on reduced angular momentum etc leaving just one or 2 going against the whole model suite.

we now find just 2 days later the same model suites following just 1 model - The UKMO- which has forecast pretty much the scenario suggested from day 1 just spread over 1/2 more days.

People seem to forget how bad the GFS & ECM have been in the last 2 days - here a typical incidence

ECM last 3 00z 168>144 & today’s 120

A0960A58-4C48-4386-9A86-8A5109EEDD08.thumb.png.ba809db6c12d958df86989eb4111336b.png34DA19EB-7D9F-48AD-856F-1E40D116B2F7.thumb.png.b53636ba4451dc80f462c9fffbcbacfc.pngE83DFF19-0F1C-42F0-8588-B221625A35E1.thumb.png.403d9af725cc1d31793340c060f70f82.png

Its Crystal clear the model has moved to the forecast scenario -

Now examine the Debilt ENs

6D424E07-0622-4A4A-8873-7A596670EF48.thumb.png.858f269318f95b751d3ab12e694fb61f.png825DBC14-00C8-48E8-BD6B-0F2FCD607B9A.thumb.png.a60d4338c6345b2c74ad43b94f16ed4b.png94248903-E726-4707-BEAF-AAADBBB335CB.thumb.png.ebf1a730c477204254acd99f01b7b7ed.png

same vein - No cold - some cold then hang in a minute - lots of cold.

No point in posting the GFS as it’s still a day behind.

 

So great argument - but your data is flawed & changing in favour of cold. 

My current thoughts hold Easterly / Southeasterly in situ at day 6-7 with a high potential of undercut not currently shown in the models.

Best

s

PS ***everyone***

ask yourself 1 question

* Why the Met office with every MOGREPs / ECM run / ENS suite available decide not to modify the T84 Fax chart away from the UKMO 12z raw data-

answer: because they have confidence it will be correct— 

 

as it stands at the moment, i'm with @Danny* on this one. nothing in the models is showing a sustained easterly. you mention "human intervention and forecasting" yet the Met office forecast reflects the scenario danny has described. 

i really hope you are right but i think if we do get the easterly it will be short lived and mostly dry. i do however think that it will evolve into cold zonality with a southerly tracking jet allowing low pressure systems to drag very cold air over us on their northern flanks. (a variation on the 'undercut' theme) very cold north-westerlies and northerlies could be the order of the day, bringing large amounts of snow to many (though least likely the south-east corner:(

snow is snow whatever direction it comes from and even a couple of days worth is a far cry from previous years.

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2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

as it stands at the moment, i'm with @Danny* on this one. nothing in the models is showing a sustained easterly. you mention "human intervention and forecasting" yet the Met office forecast reflects the scenario danny has described. 

i really hope you are right but i think if we do get the easterly it will be short lived and mostly dry. i do however think that it will evolve into cold zonality with a southerly tracking jet allowing low pressure systems to drag very cold air over us on their northern flanks. (a variation on the 'undercut' theme) very cold north-westerlies and northerlies could be the order of the day, bringing large amounts of snow to many (though least likely the south-east corner:(

snow is snow whatever direction it comes from and even a couple of days worth is a far cry from previous years.

Maybe it will evolve into snow zonality...

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14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Maybe it will evolve into snow zonality...

along the lines of the GFS...

h850t850eu.thumb.png.8aa55c5bb4091fbc7a1d3af74cffd7fd.png

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.dc630f653720232b72168c568186e30d.png

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51 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A good post based on reasoning of which You couldn’t argue based on the information that you present.

There is however the small matter of ‘human intervention & forecasting’ involved here as well as experience. That’s the difference between someone who chooses to solely rely on what a model says V someone who blends what’s a model says with ‘experience’ of said models & when they perform poorly, so whilst the data you have forms your opionion - all it does is reinforce mine which is model output + blend of experience.

So let’s be clear from Day 1 I think both me ( & TEITS - when he joined the party ) have forecast a ‘decent’ continental Easterly to reach the UK -circa -6 850 or below - The timeline which as with most cold spells has slightly elongated due to model progression ( haven’t got time to explain now ) is still due Thurs / Fri.

Let’s not forget all the ‘teleconnection’ crew decided it wasn’t going to happen - based on reduced angular momentum etc leaving just one or 2 going against the whole model suite.

we now find just 2 days later the same model suites following just 1 model - The UKMO- which has forecast pretty much the scenario suggested from day 1 just spread over 1/2 more days.

People seem to forget how bad the GFS & ECM have been in the last 2 days - here a typical incidence

ECM last 3 00z 168>144 & today’s 120

A0960A58-4C48-4386-9A86-8A5109EEDD08.thumb.png.ba809db6c12d958df86989eb4111336b.png34DA19EB-7D9F-48AD-856F-1E40D116B2F7.thumb.png.b53636ba4451dc80f462c9fffbcbacfc.pngE83DFF19-0F1C-42F0-8588-B221625A35E1.thumb.png.403d9af725cc1d31793340c060f70f82.png

Its Crystal clear the model has moved to the forecast scenario -

Now examine the Debilt ENs

6D424E07-0622-4A4A-8873-7A596670EF48.thumb.png.858f269318f95b751d3ab12e694fb61f.png825DBC14-00C8-48E8-BD6B-0F2FCD607B9A.thumb.png.a60d4338c6345b2c74ad43b94f16ed4b.png94248903-E726-4707-BEAF-AAADBBB335CB.thumb.png.ebf1a730c477204254acd99f01b7b7ed.png

same vein - No cold - some cold then hang in a minute - lots of cold.

No point in posting the GFS as it’s still a day behind.

 

So great argument - but your data is flawed & changing in favour of cold. 

My current thoughts hold Easterly / Southeasterly in situ at day 6-7 with a high potential of undercut not currently shown in the models.

Best

s

PS ***everyone***

ask yourself 1 question

* Why the Met office with every MOGREPs / ECM run / ENS suite available decide not to modify the T84 Fax chart away from the UKMO 12z raw data-

answer: because they have confidence it will be correct— 

 

A great graphical/in depth explanation-SM.

i'd side with every part of the post.

And i have purposely, refrained from comment atm due to the conflicting signal.

Although as-again, things gaing momentum..via easterly incursion.

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Model discussion please guys, there are other threads to discuss Met Office forecasts and current conditions.

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The weather for the week ahead on the BBC says  "less cold" by the end of the week with the Atlantic winning out.

Zero sign of a cold Easterly.

Just offering this along side the model output as to how Exeter are thinking. 

Edited by mountain shadow

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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

The fact is the UKMO/ECM are effectively trying to hold back the tide. These models I believe use historical weather patterns and of course our norm is movement W-E. So this is why the models the models really struggle. I believe the UKMO struggles less because the way it has been programmed.

Sorry TEITS that is not true. ALL models are given the basic data at the start and then run to the end of their period with nothing added, certainly no historical nor any other that I know of. This is for synoptic models NOT climat models. You can see what goes in if you visit the Met O main site.

I’d like to think the UKMO is more clued up but that’s my simple way of thinking 

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7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The weather for the week ahead on the BBC says  "less cold" by the end of the week with the Atlantic winning out.

Zero sign of a cold Easterly.

Just offering this along side the model output as to how Exeter are thinking. 

That’s not the met office

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7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The weather for the week ahead on the BBC says  "less cold" by the end of the week with the Atlantic winning out.

Zero sign of a cold Easterly.

Just offering this along side the model output as to how Exeter are thinking. 

Which is massively different to their latest output . I wonder if they are playing catch up if they have caught up and moved in front 

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

That’s not the met office

the BBC get their forecasts from the Met office.

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2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Which is massively different to their latest output . I wonder if they are playing catch up if they have caught up and moved in front 

Who knows ! They're always confusing on the telly. That countryfile one will probably be different too. Then tomorrow lol

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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Sorry TEITS that is not true. ALL models are given the basic data at the start and then run to the end of their period with nothing added, certainly no historical nor any other that I know of. This is for synoptic models NOT climat models. You can see what goes in if you visit the Met O main site.

The model runs are fed into a product called DECIDER which has historical weather regimes in it. Ian Fergusson mentioned this a couple of winters ago and there was a video of how it worked. 

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50 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

"Perhaps..."

"Maybe..."

I agree with you, sounds quite interesting tbf, just not the type of interesting people are looking for.  Just wondering about the bit that does sound boring. How can it be colder and dryer in the SE, I guess a corner of the high looks to be hanging on.

Edited by alexisj9

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8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The weather for the week ahead on the BBC says  "less cold" by the end of the week with the Atlantic winning out.

Zero sign of a cold Easterly.

Just offering this along side the model output as to how Exeter are thinking. 

They didn't really show the Atlantic winning out, more of a very slow encroachment ..

That's totally along the lines of the ukmo, as this 144 chart illustrates..

But there are definate possibilities of a beasterly from there...!  

image.thumb.gif.0f8e69f811cf36142ac686757c672a0e.gif

 

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6 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The model runs are fed into a product called DECIDER which has historical weather regimes in it. Ian Fergusson mentioned this a couple of winters ago and there was a video of how it worked. 

Yes & a large %age of that is climatology hence why the models always bias to the east 

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Can we stick to discussing the models and not the MetOffice forecast. There is another thread elsewhere for that purpose:

Thanks

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes & a large %age of that is climatology hence why the models always bias to the east 

i thought as @johnholmes said, the models have no climatology built in, with the DECIDER 'adding' climatology in its calculations?

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6 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

i thought as @johnholmes said, the models have no climatology built in, with the DECIDER 'adding' climatology in its calculations?

Read Gael force post

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

Read Gael force post

i did. john holmes said the models have no built in climatology, you said they did. gael force highlighted the DECIDER model as adding the climatology into the mix. i remember reading this some time ago.

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16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes & a large %age of that is climatology hence why the models always bias to the east 

In other words, it's the weather that is biased, and the models are trying to conform to what is in effect realty? Much like a human would if placed in the same position...

We, on the other hand, are constantly trying to force reality to comply with our own private wish-lists...?:D

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