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Model output discussion - into 2018

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11 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Your short waves only develop IF the upper air pattern is conducive to this happening Nick. The key to what will happen is what the upper air pattern is and may be in the 5-15 day period in my view

I like my shortwaves ! When they behave . It’s easier to explain things by highlighting the message rather than going into vast detail.

Shortwaves are easy pointers and things to look out for. And I am aware how and why they develop . I’ve only been on here for close to 14 years! :cold-emoji:

PS do you have an alarm system set up which fires off anytime someone mentions shortwave in here ! 

We’ve been here before, I like talking about shortwaves you like talking about the upper air pattern.

 

Edited by nick sussex

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1 hour ago, beng said:

Can someone find me an archive chart similar to this morning's UKMO - with low pressure over Greece and the high over Finland?  I just don't remember that really happening - to me it either ends up several hundred miles further east, or more likely (given the trends) the whole pattern should be shifted several hundred miles West, with the low pressure over Italy and the centre of the high Sweden/Norway.

UMKO is leading the way probably, but still too progressive at 144h.

 

EDIT, the closest I can find is Jan 31st 2009

 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

 

Jan 31st 2009

archivesnh-2009-1-31-0-0.png

 

 

Fantastic, I remember well what happened two days later. 

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BTW Yes looking at the ECM and UKMO op's, if you just froze them and you could only see that one frame, you would definitely say odds on not just an Easterly but a good Easterly, but the fact is there are 73 ensembles and only a few of them show anything severe afterwards.

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21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I like my shortwaves ! When they behave . It’s easier to explain things by highlighting the message rather than going into vast detail.

Shortwaves are easy pointers and things to look out for. And I am aware how and why they develop . I’ve only been on here for close to 14 years! :cold-emoji:

PS do you have an alarm system set up which fires off anytime someone mentions shortwave in here ! 

We’ve been here before, I like talking about shortwaves you like talking about the upper air pattern.

 

Chill out nick, love your posts, John is someone I also have great respect for. As for the latest models, I continue to see plenty of cold interest..as a cold lover, the output could be a lot worse.:)

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I also predicted it would fail, and I'm predicting any potent Easterly much before months end will also fail

How about you back up your predictions with some chart analysis as to why any easterly will fail before months end as without them as far as I'm concerned you could be looking at tea leafs to come to the conclusion you have! 

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The fact is the UKMO/ECM are effectively trying to hold back the tide. These models I believe use historical weather patterns and of course our norm is movement W-E. So this is why the models the models really struggle. I believe the UKMO struggles less because the way it has been programmed.

Sorry TEITS that is not true. ALL models are given the basic data at the start and then run to the end of their period with nothing added, certainly no historical nor any other that I know of. This is for synoptic models NOT climat models. You can see what goes in if you visit the Met O main site.

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47 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Perhaps we should rename the thread "Wishing Well" because some people are trying to wish this thing into existence. I'm in the "miserable git" club at the moment. And here's my reasoning.

Clusters.thumb.png.21c5bce15e7e49752ef1a4b9127dcc16.png

The ECM clusters show little support for a sustained, cold Easterly. In fact, there's such a large range of solutions that it's difficult to pin-point any particular outcome but the EPS seemingly leaning more towards low pressure dominated (though some more zonal than others) rather than a cold, convective Easterly.

ECM mean isn't too bad, but more cold zonal than Easterly.

need to be careful re the under estimation of the block though

Looking at the clusters for next Sunday and comparing them with output from three days ago shows the emphasis has changed a little to show the trough not getting as far north or east. Make the same adjustment on those day ten cluster charts you posted and they may look a little more interesting. I really don't see a beaterly making it to here but I could be talked into the pattern shown in today's ec op being 300 miles further south and a hundred and fifty west ........ wouldn't be absurd to see that in the day 7 clusters today, would it?

IMG_0747.thumb.PNG.9e2c0358c00bbcb9b77b032b98399c89.PNG IMG_0748.thumb.PNG.e97b823518d0719684e4f5ef5c337877.PNG

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10 minutes ago, Smartie said:

How about you back up your predictions with some chart analysis as to why any easterly will fail before months end as without them as far as I'm concerned you could be looking at tea leafs to come to the conclusion you have! 

Look at the ensembles but I think you know that anyway but are just posting to get popularity - hope you will scrutinise those who are predicting the block to be even further West than the UKMO /ECM just as much as those that think the GFS will be correct and it will be further East than the UKMO / ECM combo.

EDIT : re tea leaves - there have been stacks of Easterlies predicted by people on here since 2013 (including myself) and do you know how many of those have come true in terms of delivering wintry weather to the UK since 2013 - A big fat 0 - you need to scrutinise the wrong forecasts that are not backed up with evidence - not the correct ones.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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I remember this  chart January 09 when  cold to east won the battle ukmo looking like it could go that way.

IMG_0356.PNG

IMG_0357.PNG

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Well can the ukmo go the extra mile. At t144 the chart screams easterly for the UK with energy undercutting as the CAA pushes west from Europe.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

The only problem being that this is a t144 chart and not the most reliable time frame for the ukmo model. Also although the gfs is slowly realigning towards the ukmo at the time frames we are looking at ( t96-t144 or 4 to six days) you really would expect the gfs to be fully on board. This tells me that  because of the disagreement between the models no one model has it right and unfortunately when it comes to cold for the UK there is little room for error. The UK model builds a robust block over northern Scandinavia the gfs not so hence shortwaves aplenty.

That aside I am rooting for the UKMO model to be correct because we are just a hairs breath away from what could be a very cold spell of weather if the energy to the west disrupts and goes under the block to the east also the ukmo and the ecm are virtually on the same page out to t144.

 

Edited by comet

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Well i hope steve murr is right !!

But the metoffice are not reading the script.. :(

todays update is dreadful!!

Transient snow for scottish mountains fri/sat then basically hello Atlantic ..

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i hope steve murr is right !!

But the metoffice are not reading the script.. :(

todays update is dreadful!!

Transient snow for scottish mountains fri/sat then basically hello Atlantic ..

The text in bold made me laugh when I read it.

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if the block holds at NNE area then we could see the PV cold go south with an great opportunity for easterlies (with wrong sertting there is an south-air-transport)

Exciting days to watch

8.png

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Look at the 120 Bracknell fax..

Edited by Steve Murr

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at the 120 Bracknell fax..

nice

786.gif

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"Failed Easterly"?!

We have a breezy Easterly wind here in the balmy south west today and it is 3c, but wind chill makes it feel more like 0c in the shade.:)

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25 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The fact is the UKMO/ECM are effectively trying to hold back the tide. These models I believe use historical weather patterns and of course our norm is movement W-E. So this is why the models the models really struggle. I believe the UKMO struggles less because the way it has been programmed.

Sorry TEITS that is not true. ALL models are given the basic data at the start and then run to the end of their period with nothing added, certainly no historical nor any other that I know of. This is for synoptic models NOT climat models. You can see what goes in if you visit the Met O main site.

All models must be programmed differently though otherwise they would come out with the same output and same verification.

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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

"Failed Easterly"?!

We have a breezy Easterly wind here in the balmy south west today and it is 3c, but wind chill makes it feel more like 0c in the shade.:)

But 3C is at least 3C too high for ice forming, so no ice skating, most coldies don't really like cold but do like some of the fun that comes with cold like ice and snow and the fact you don't get soaked and end up feeling miserable and cold. 

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Just now, Sweatyman said:

Boring update that is from Met

"Perhaps..."

"Maybe..."

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99% of the time the fax is identical to UKMO. I always wonder what the point in it is to be honest. Let’s see where we are at the end of the week. If we are in a proper Easterly with widespread uppers below -6c I will be shocked. I would say less than 10% chance. 

Edited by Tim Bland

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13 minutes ago, karyo said:

The text in bold made me laugh when I read it.

I'm not very keen on this easterly I no some are showing in some output surely if there was easterly with cold the meto would be all over it..

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