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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Not a good start to the afternoon output from the ICON, it places the low further north than the earlier run and then it takes ages to move south. By the time it does there is no proper cold uppers left. 

Out to 120 hours the gfs also places the low a bit further north than the 6z did..

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Not a good start to the afternoon output from the ICON, it places the low further north than the earlier run and then it takes ages to move south. By the time it does there is no proper cold uppers left. 

Out to 120 hours the gfs also places the low a bit further north than the 6z did..

It's all part of the fun, or the thrill of the chase..enjoy the ride:D:cold:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

 

Just now, Steve Murr said:

But much better cold alignment at 144 with no kink in the way

watch the cold rush SSW 144-168

Not so sure on this run.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

But much better cold alignment at 144 with no kink in the way

watch the cold rush SSW 144-168

The gfs is better than the UKMO this afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Not a good UKMO either. The low to the southwest of the UK does not look like it will allow the cold uppers in.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

It looks like a painfully slow extraction on this run to get any sort of Easterly. Like pulling out a bad tooth ! But it will get there eventually.

C

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs jammed-156 meteocial???

edit; running again!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, carinthian said:

It looks like a painfully slow extraction on this run to get any sort of Easterly. Like pulling out a bad tooth ! But it will get there eventually.

C

Yes, we get the easterly by 160 hours but it is a toothless one. The 6z had some cold uppers reaching us.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
14 minutes ago, karyo said:

Not a good start to the afternoon output from the ICON, it places the low further north than the earlier run and then it takes ages to move south. By the time it does there is no proper cold uppers left. 

Out to 120 hours the gfs also places the low a bit further north than the 6z did..

That looks like a bit of an understatement to say the least. I wonder if the met office have started the new year celebrations early for there  is nothing in the models so far this afternoon to suggest the outlook they have made for a weeks plus time.

Edited by comet
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, comet said:

That looks like a bit of an understatement to say the least. I wonder if the met office have started the new year celebrations early for their is nothing in the models so far this afternoon to suggest the outlook they have made for a weeks plus time.

Yes, we need to see a trend of stronger heights and colder uppers coming in. Sadly this afternoon we are going in the wrong direction.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, comet said:

That looks like a bit of an understatement to say the least. I wonder if the met office have started the new year celebrations early for their is nothing in the models so far this afternoon to suggest the outlook they have made for a weeks plus time.

Agreed.

12Zs are tripe.

Would imagine a sharp u-turn from Exeter tomorrow, cant help but feel whatever can go wrong does go wrong.

This time its the limpet low...

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

But much better cold alignment at 144 with no kink in the way

watch the cold rush SSW 144-168

Steve

Any chance of putting a post together explaining this tweet from IF and matching its content to what you are seeing in the models. 

Fergie

‘Yup. The net outcome, as UKMO explain well, is how major anticylonic flow by Fri across NE Russia leads to a shift of stratospheric polar vortex position to the SSE, resulting in a marked reconfiguration in the N hemispheric pattern.’

Cheers 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs 12z underwhelming as regards placements of pressure/850s...

Fully expected tbf at this range as the models toy with the signal.

No worries from my point ...

And coming suites will evolve quite differently over next few days- runs.....

All very interesting!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

But much better cold alignment at 144 with no kink in the way

watch the cold rush SSW 144-168

still watching....

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Be good if a model could complete its run before it starts getting torn apart like a KFC wing ! 

The crucial period is within 144 hours! The gfs may show a major freeze past 300 hours but that has very little value and indeed chances of happening.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
12 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Steve

Any chance of putting a post together explaining this tweet from IF and matching its content to what you are seeing in the models. 

Fergie

‘Yup. The net outcome, as UKMO explain well, is how major anticylonic flow by Fri across NE Russia leads to a shift of stratospheric polar vortex position to the SSE, resulting in a marked reconfiguration in the N hemispheric pattern.’

Cheers 

Very interesting quote from Fergie . Unfortunately this does not tie in with what the 12z gfs run is showing or the ukmo for that matter.

Edit. by t222 the gfs shows perhaps the synoptics that Fergie was alluding to.

Edited by comet
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Can we adjust-and remember an'eastetly flow slack/roaring /or otherwise is a rare creature for us in winter.

Again keep the signal -and time in front of the modeling!!!

Its going to wave up and down until the flow is immenent!!!

The russian seg-warmth is'nt going anywhere and slight tweaks-alignment much massive difference.

Lots to be keen about!

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
13 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, we get the easterly by 160 hours but it is a toothless one. The 6z had some cold uppers reaching us.

The UKMO has the Low sinking SW like the GEM run. The exact source of air mass cannot yet be determined but GEM seems the best to tap into some lower temps. Still some time for the high to develop and colder uppers to get established,crucially into Scandi land.

C

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

But much better cold alignment at 144 with no kink in the way

watch the cold rush SSW 144-168

 

12 Z    144                                                                              6z 144

h850t850eu.png   h850t850eu.png

12z 168                                                                        6z 168

h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

 

Looks worse to my untrained eye what am i missing ?

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