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Model output discussion - into 2018


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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes im thoroughly enjoying it :)

But as i said, 6z is a perfect fit to exters update yesterday- naturally im hoping the update today is more positive :)

Exeter updates rarely change much after an updated text forecast the day before...

Example: yesterdays 16 to 30 day changed from prevoius text the day before, so todays will stay the same regardless of model imput. Mondays will read differnet. Normally two days text are identical.

Thats how i read into them anyway

* unless you mean the extended/further outlook?

Edited by doctor32
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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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7 minutes ago, london-snow said:

Predictions are one thing but backing up your reasonings behind  your predictions as teits has done is priceless.

 

Maybe give a balanced view on why any potent easterly will fail because imo anything past 96+ at the moment is dubious. There is a wide range of options on the table which is why i refrain from calling any option going forward at the moment. 

I will give my evidence in both ensemble graphs when they come out, but the problem is, you get ridiculed and the usual - 'lower resolution doesn't deal with split energy' and 'ensembles will catch on later with Easterlies' yet would those same people be saying the same if 70% of members had <-10c uppers showing? and then when the Easterly doesn't materialise, they still slate you the next time and it completely goes over their head that they were the ones that were wrong the last time and ridicule you again, yet their cult hero status is retained and the same gullable people fall for it again.

EDIT : and to add to that they are lorded as the 'knowledgeable people' and the slate people like James Madden and the Daily Express when they are doing the same thing just to a lesser extent and on a public forum as oppsed to a Newspaper.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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3 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

FI is at 90 hours or so. Anything after that is anyone's guess. NWS don't let yourself get hung up on op runs like the 6z just sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

Ah, the movable feast that is the start of FI...? That time which usually comes around when over-excited expectations of 'The Beast is Nigh' start to get watered down by allusions to 'shortwave dramas', imperfect 'energy ejections' and the sudden realisation that 'the GFS has gone off on one', and the like?:D

All good fun though, innit!:yahoo:

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5 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Exeter updates rarely change much after an updated text forecast the day before...

Example: yesterdays 16 to 30 day changed from prevoius text the day before, so todays will stay the same regardless of model imput. Mondays will read differnet. Normally two days text are identical.

Thats how i read into them anyway

* unless you mean the extended/further outlook?

the meto updated talked about a disturbed Atlantic dominated pattern with chances of snow in the north- much as 6z shows.It had no mention of an easterly at all.

Lets see what todays brings..

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

the meto updated talked about a disturbed Atlantic dominated pattern with chances of snow in the north- much as 6z shows.It had no mention of an easterly at all.

Lets see what todays brings..

That is true, not denying that. 

Just pointing out it will almost certainly say the same as yesterday. Never or rarely changes the next day.... Always says the same thing two days in a row..

Therefor not very helpfull if models are showing something different today as it wont be reflected in there update today

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The 6z GEFS also moving in the right direction (some of the GEFS are getting close to the UKMO/ECMWF solution).

Edited by mulzy
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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

the meto updated talked about a disturbed Atlantic dominated pattern with chances of snow in the north- much as 6z shows.It had no mention of an easterly at all.

Lets see what todays brings..

But they also  mention  something dryer and colder in the south east .

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread - 

So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed.

updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

DAA4BA6A-F2BA-431A-947D-6790E046428B.thumb.png.1941058fcf759a0b0f1c47831f5a2c72.png

Think thats a bit harsh Steve :(

You know full well from my perspective i would love nothing more than a convective snow packed easterly- at the moment i can't see one coming off, thats based on EC/EC mean /GFS/GEFS, and Exeters musings.

I accept its not impossible but at this juncture i feel its a long shot.

Keep posting matey i love reading your posts :)

 

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All easterlies are long shots but they do happen although granted it has been quite a long time since the last one. I think the will it, won't it situation is getting snow lovers down but it's all about the thrill of the chase isn't it?

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread - 

So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed.

updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

DAA4BA6A-F2BA-431A-947D-6790E046428B.thumb.png.1941058fcf759a0b0f1c47831f5a2c72.png

Morning steve.bit of a randem question

Given our weather is generally in a west to east mode ete why does the formation of a scan based easterly seem so difficult to land?probably same with greenland and my first comment prob ans my own question. Just seems so rare these days 

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think thats a bit harsh Steve :(

You know full well from my perspective i would love nothing more than a convective snow packed easterly- at the moment i can't see one coming off, thats based on EC/EC mean /GFS/GEFS, and Exeters musings.

I accept its not impossible but at this juncture i feel its a long shot.

Keep posting matey i love reading your posts :)

 

To be honest pal I doubt it was aimed at you ?

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Perhaps we should rename the thread "Wishing Well" because some people are trying to wish this thing into existence. I'm in the "miserable git" club at the moment. And here's my reasoning.

Clusters.thumb.png.21c5bce15e7e49752ef1a4b9127dcc16.png

The ECM clusters show little support for a sustained, cold Easterly. In fact, there's such a large range of solutions that it's difficult to pin-point any particular outcome but the EPS seemingly leaning more towards low pressure dominated (though some more zonal than others) rather than a cold, convective Easterly.

ECM mean isn't too bad, but more cold zonal than Easterly.

5a5205436dff7_ECMMean.thumb.gif.7f7d05355ce2cdbdcbebd58e51e7e9a7.gif

The GFS mean singing a similar tune

5a520572cf2f0_240hmean.thumb.png.cd945be2c0319dc682bc052d14f4e3e2.png

So we have two ensemble suites going for cold zonal with weaker heights to our North-East than the ops currently show. A look at the ensemble charts show massive spread in the mid-long term range with not a huge amount of support for anything particularly bitter.

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.d62fc70ed9b9468f2ffab1612ed08b32.gif5a5205cd81cbd_GFSENS.thumb.png.f8faedd5ceb40d0486f77825236e7514.png

So going forward? Yes it will turn colder with both ensembles suites representing that change. Yes, the ops are pointing towards an Easterly (though, none of them are actually showing one yet, just a trend towards stronger heights in the NE that currently don't depict freezing weather as some on here seem to be suggesting)

As I see it, cold zonal looks like the most likely outcome. We saw just a few days ago how the ops can massively overestimate blocking and give us bitter cold synoptics only for them to spectacularly back away from them. 

Are the ops/means/ens underestimating the Scandi block? Probably, and I expect we'll see it become a bit more robust within the models suite, but that still doesn't necessarily lead to bitter cold Easterlies.

People are talking like it's a done deal, but I'm struggling to see widespread support for that in the ensembles. Easterlies are the holy grail here so I'd love for the enthusiastic members to be right but the models currently aren't suggestive of that.

Edited by Danny*
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It does seem that this is turning into last year were we chased an Easterly to kingdom come just to far out of reach for me I'm afraid, going forward best we can hope for is cold zonal & the chance of height rises towards greenland & vortex heading east.

Screenshot_20180107-114044.png

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For what it's worth, the 6z Arpege shows a minor improvement over the 0z, albeit this run only goes out to T72.

0z

arpegenh-0-78.png

6z

arpegenh-0-72.png?6

Note the more robust scandi block, the reduced influence of the upper ridge over the Balkans, and a smidgen more amplification over the mid-Atlantic.

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6 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I shall sum up this morning very easily.

The E,ly is possible and I shall stick with my predictions. However I could be completely wrong. Having said that though their isn't a professional forecaster on this planet who wouldn't rule out an E,ly based on this mornings UKMO/ECM!

The fact is the UKMO/ECM are effectively trying to hold back the tide. These models I believe use historical weather patterns and of course our norm is movement W-E. So this is why the models the models really struggle. I believe the UKMO struggles less because the way it has been programmed.

Could be wrong but that is my experience.

I don't believe ukmo uses historical patterns, glosea does that, iirc Ian Ferguson posted a link to a met office presentation about how after a certain pattern some other patterns are much more likely to follow than others and how glosea uses those probabilities. Don't know about the ecm but these alternating pattern ssems more longer range stuff than the 10-15days ecm runs

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Just caught up with the GFS 06 hrs run.

A better start then hits the buffers. I do think it would be wise to not look too far ahead given some of the changes seen over the last few days.

The first hurdle re shortwave energy and the GFS determined to initially have them all over the place to the n and ne looks like slowly being resolved.

Whilst the UKMO continues to stick to its guns and supported by the ECM then we should be a bit more confident .

The UKMO has form with these set ups, it’s often been the decider against the ECM/GFS.

As for any proper easterly I still think it might take several attempts to get there but as long as you keep high pressure to the ne then there’s still a chance but it might be after the initial Atlantic push.

For the timebeing the key thing is to get low heights digging into Central  Southern Europe.

Your short waves only develop IF the upper air pattern is conducive to this happening Nick. The key to what will happen is what the upper air pattern is and may be in the 5-15 day period in my view

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11 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Your short waves only develop IF the upper air pattern is conducive to this happening Nick. The key to what will happen is what the upper air pattern is and may be in the 5-15 day period in my view

I like my shortwaves ! When they behave . It’s easier to explain things by highlighting the message rather than going into vast detail.

Shortwaves are easy pointers and things to look out for. And I am aware how and why they develop . I’ve only been on here for close to 14 years! :cold-emoji:

PS do you have an alarm system set up which fires off anytime someone mentions shortwave in here ! 

We’ve been here before, I like talking about shortwaves you like talking about the upper air pattern.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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1 hour ago, beng said:

Can someone find me an archive chart similar to this morning's UKMO - with low pressure over Greece and the high over Finland?  I just don't remember that really happening - to me it either ends up several hundred miles further east, or more likely (given the trends) the whole pattern should be shifted several hundred miles West, with the low pressure over Italy and the centre of the high Sweden/Norway.

UMKO is leading the way probably, but still too progressive at 144h.

 

EDIT, the closest I can find is Jan 31st 2009

 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

 

Jan 31st 2009

archivesnh-2009-1-31-0-0.png

 

 

Fantastic, I remember well what happened two days later. 

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BTW Yes looking at the ECM and UKMO op's, if you just froze them and you could only see that one frame, you would definitely say odds on not just an Easterly but a good Easterly, but the fact is there are 73 ensembles and only a few of them show anything severe afterwards.

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21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I like my shortwaves ! When they behave . It’s easier to explain things by highlighting the message rather than going into vast detail.

Shortwaves are easy pointers and things to look out for. And I am aware how and why they develop . I’ve only been on here for close to 14 years! :cold-emoji:

PS do you have an alarm system set up which fires off anytime someone mentions shortwave in here ! 

We’ve been here before, I like talking about shortwaves you like talking about the upper air pattern.

 

Chill out nick, love your posts, John is someone I also have great respect for. As for the latest models, I continue to see plenty of cold interest..as a cold lover, the output could be a lot worse.:)

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