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Model output discussion - into 2018


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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

You miss read NWS post. He was referring to the GFS in general not the 06z. 

I was not responding to NWS it was a general Observation and not just Today,Happens all the time,Just wish some folk would wait a bit longer before posting.and let the run develop.

C.S

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21 minutes ago, Danny* said:

The GFS is still having absolutely none of it though, and given what happened just a couple of days ago I'm not letting myself get excited.

Very wise indeed it trumps the others but only because none of them have a very good handle on what in reality is going on !!

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Nope. 

GFS not really interested again- any easterly is about 2500 miles away in Russia!!

It did make a big move towards it in the early stages of the run, then managed to concoct a way to derail it.

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nope. 

GFS not really interested again- any easterly is about 2500 miles away in Russia!!

Hmmm.small steps forward early on I guess but the problem is it could end up as a holding feature without actually producing any wintry weather! !! Maybe something from the nw may be more productive .btw do you know what 850s are required at sea level in a pm nw flow for snow.my brain oa a bit fried this morning tia

 

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Just now, swfc said:

Hmmm.small steps forward early on I guess but the problem is it could end up as a holding feature without actually producing any wintry weather! !! Maybe something from the nw may be more productive .btw do you know what 850s are required at sea level in a pm nw flow for snow.my brain oa a bit fried this morning tia

 

I'm not sure mate- i'm not throwing in the towel on an easterly yet- gfs6z is crap though..(out to 216hrs).

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

well theres no dressing that run up- its garbage!!

Hopefully,its wrong.

I would disagree, upto t120 it's a good step forward. IF it does the same later FI will look very different.  But heyho all part of the fun of discussing.

Edited by That ECM
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1 minute ago, Glenn Redwood said:

Can someone post some charts please. Lots of one line comments and none the wiser.

That's what imo is the step forward. Look at the block to the ne. 

IMG_0328.PNG

IMG_0329.PNG

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm not sure mate- i'm not throwing in the towel on an easterly yet- gfs6z is crap though..(out to 216hrs).

Since when has GFS been able to display a high degree of accuracy at T+216 anyway?

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3 minutes ago, Glenn Redwood said:

Can someone post some charts please. Lots of one line comments and none the wiser.

Go on metiociel or look on netweather to follow the charts.it will make things clear in regard to the posts on here

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1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:

Since when has GFS been able to display a high degree of accuracy at T+216 anyway?

I agree- i was just commenting on this run in isolation, not saying its correct :)

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15 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

then again we've been told ad nauseum to ignore the 06/18z GFS as it's pig-swill.....but wait! if it shows cold, then it's the best thing since sliced bread...  :rolleyes:........that's why new and old members alike get confused, they get inundated with contradictions.........

still,, in terms of the output itself (and to make this post on-topic) I'm following TEITS's posts with interest, he initially and correctly posted a few days ago that this initial easterly would fail, a correct prediction so a big tick in the box as one has to get the initial solution correct to have any chance of offering a remotely accurate medium term forecast prediction 

I also predicted it would fail, and I'm predicting any potent Easterly much before months end will also fail

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whether we like it or not GFS6Z looks exactly like the meto update yesterday sounded- ie no easterly to speak of and unsettled with perhaps snow in the north at times amongst an Atlantic dominated pattern.

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5 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Since when has GFS been able to display a high degree of accuracy at T+216 anyway?

None of the models do . Exeter have problems with anything past 7 days along with most professional forecasting agencies

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I agree- i was just commenting on this run in isolation, not saying its correct :)

Indeed, in my opinion, the viewer should always be looking at charts beyond 5 days with a high degree of scepticism, whether they are showing cold or mild.

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

whether we like it or not GFS6Z looks exactly like the meto update yesterday sounded- ie no easterly to speak of and unsettled with perhaps snow in the north at times amongst an Atlantic dominated pattern.

FI is at 90 hours or so. Anything after that is anyone's guess. NWS don't let yourself get hung up on op runs like the 6z just sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

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Just now, SN0WM4N said:

FI is at 90 hours or so. Anything after that is anyone's guess. NWS don't let yourself get hung up on op runs like the 6z just sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

Yes im thoroughly enjoying it :)

But as i said, 6z is a perfect fit to exters update yesterday- naturally im hoping the update today is more positive :)

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I also predicted it would fail, and I'm predicting any potent Easterly much before months end will also fail

Predictions are one thing but backing up your reasonings behind  your predictions as teits has done is priceless.

 

Maybe give a balanced view on why any potent easterly will fail because imo anything past 96+ at the moment is dubious. There is a wide range of options on the table which is why i refrain from calling any option going forward at the moment. 

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Just now, london-snow said:

Predictions are one thing but backing up your reasonings behind  your predictions as teits has done is priceless.

 

Maybe give a balanced view on why any potent easterly will fail because imo anything past 96+ at the moment is dubious. There is a wide range of options on the table which is why i refrain from calling any option going forward at the moment. 

I'm with Feb at the moment- i'm leaning against an easterly anytime soon, and the reason is GFS/GEFS AND EC/EC mean is against it too.

TEITS may be right, i'm certainly not saying anything is set in stone, but imho, if he is predicting an easterly, he will be wrong unfortunately.

But, as i say, things could change.

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