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Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

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Anyway- while most of us discuss the euro models 6z gfs is rolling out and to be fair its not in the slightest bit interested in any block over scandy as per EC/UKMO so this run will be interesting ..

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Maybe Catacol, GP or Tamara might know the real answer here, could be faulty data? But where has the AAM reading gone to on this latest plot over night?

image.thumb.png.741d754da9278d82a3a48a66f34d93af.png

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29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Blue-

Id be interested in your thoughts on a potential cold north westerly as progged by the EC/EC Mean this morning- wintry suprises potentially for the north and west or not cold enough?

:)

Absolutely impossible to have a strong opinion based on evidence and experience.  nothing has changed over the past day really - the latest eps are indicating, for the first time I can recall on this evolution, that the scandi ridge has not sharpened as time has ticked down bit this is around Day 10/12 so not so relevant. If you place your confidence is the ecm/ukmo idea of getting the cold uppers heading west then the ecm solution of Atlantic trough meeting beast and phasing the low heights makes some sense but where does that happen? 

peeps may not want to hear it but the only sensible option re week 2 is to watch for a few days and wait to see where this goes.

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Anyway- while most of us discuss the euro models 6z gfs is rolling out and to be fair its not in the slightest bit interested in any block over scandy as per EC/UKMO so this run will be interesting ..

It's only at T66 - how can you see any obvious differences ?????

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Just now, bluearmy said:

It's only at T66 - how can you see any obvious differences ?????

sorry i meant gfs-not the 6z :)

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Gfs is a small step forward at t72/78 with regards to the block.

Edited by That ECM

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It's only at T66 - how can you see any obvious differences ?????

Looks a better run to me - further west wih cold uppers making better inroads this time.

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Some nice charts from UKMO / ECM, but chances of an Easterly no more than 10% at the moment. That could change of course.

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Absolutely impossible to have a strong opinion based on evidence and experience.  nothing has changed over the past day really - the latest eps are indicating, for the first time I can recall on this evolution, that the scandi ridge has not sharpened as time has ticked down bit this is around Day 10/12 so not so relevant. If you place your confidence is the ecm/ukmo idea of getting the cold uppers heading west then the ecm solution of Atlantic trough meeting beast and phasing the low heights makes some sense but where does that happen? 

peeps may not want to hear it but the only sensible option re week 2 is to watch for a few days and wait to see where this goes.

Very realistic appraisal Blue. Unfortunately we live in a gotta have  it today society but Amazon don't deliver Convective Easterly outcomes so it really is a question of just wait and see.

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There's no denying that this is a better run out to 114 vs the 0z.  Definite movement towards the UKMO with heights better aligned....getting interesting!

0z  gfsnh-0-120.png?0 6z gfsnh-0-114.png?6 UKMO Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

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The GFS is still having absolutely none of it though, and given what happened just a couple of days ago I'm not letting myself get excited.

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6z beginning to look more euro-ish -

Apart from a brief Atlantic incursion the azores high ridges north and blocks off the lows in the Atlantic..probably cold again by thurs :)

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The ridge from the Azores high extends north towards Norway. This looks good so far.

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

sorry i meant gfs-not the 6z :)

Gfs backtracking big style here and at a very early time frame aswell!!12z could maybe complete the move to euros!!

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

The ridge from the Azores high extends north towards Norway. This looks good so far.

I agree K :)

The dew point /2m plots shows the UK very cold by thur ..

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

I agree K :)

The dew point /2m plots shows the UK very cold by thur ..

Yes, no wind under the high pressure is great for frosty weather.

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

Yes, no wind under the high pressure is great for frosty weather.

Depends on cloud amounts trapped under the ridge / high:)

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29 minutes ago, grca said:

Maybe Catacol, GP or Tamara might know the real answer here, could be faulty data? But where has the AAM reading gone to on this latest plot over night?

image.thumb.png.741d754da9278d82a3a48a66f34d93af.png

We are certainly in a -AAM environment, potentially could be off the charts kind of -AAM. Certainly plausible, if it verifies on WDT and tomorrow's GFS analysis, for a deep -AAM Phase. But until we get that data, I am holding my horses before making that assumption.

 

Edited by Snowy Hibbo

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10 minutes ago, Danny* said:

The GFS is still having absolutely none of it though, and given what happened just a couple of days ago I'm not letting myself get excited.

Wow, talk about speaking too soon. (though this was about the past few runs, I hadn't looked at the 6z when I posted)

Massive backtrack from the GFS on the 6z, much larger block and the Atlantic being held way back.

Edited by Danny*

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Gfs different to the east so no CAA 

It changes by day 6 compared to its 00z run but we know this model reverts in small steps so it could look quite different by the morning 

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More often than not we never get a nailed easterly, one that we go straight into it! There's nearly always model changes downgrades and upgrades, then about a week to two week later it arrives :D

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4 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

LOL

So the GFS 06Z In last few posts go from a better run to GFS Having none of it,Good luck to all the newbies trying to get a grip of things 

C.S

Indeed, didn't quite understand the 'Having none of it' post.  This is an improvement if cold is your thing.  Compare the Scandi high at 144 vs the same time on the previous run. Much more robust

6z gfsnh-0-150.png?6 0z gfsnh-0-156.png?0

 

 

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