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Model output discussion - into 2018

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Well the ECMWF 00z ens mean looks pretty good at t120/t144 to me. We are on the verge of very cold easterly winds here. Given the recent UKMO operational runs I wouldn’t be at all surprised whether one of the next few runs delivers the beast that has been waiting in the wings for many years now.

054C1562-6264-4DD6-A8C3-532C1E451AB5.gif

93E2E36B-8B73-4C14-BC22-49E59DD18287.gif

34EB98F5-240F-456A-B079-888263A50855.png

Edited by Guest

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well to me the EC mean shows quite a cold north westerly signal longer term- could be very exciting for those in NW Britan esp :)

EDH1-240.GIF?07-12

Another cold rain / slush fest for us in the south.

Personally going for the stuck in no man's solution. Think this could resemble feb 12' where Europe went in the freezer but we were 300 miles too far west!

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That’s a very good mean at day 5 in all honesty, easterly back for eastern half of the country. I look at that and I wonder whether ECM is being too progressive in shunting block east, I think it will put on more of a fight. 

93B68A4F-B801-4773-BF4F-5DDE849918DB.thumb.png.d60e1b75a352c9480d07db226e6ad8a7.png 24 hours later.. 61C1093A-24CD-4B27-94ED-B980D433C1BA.thumb.png.226a453e0c61f9d96469baa46ab04864.png

 

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Just as I depart for another Christmas celebration...

Control better than the Op and brings -8/-10 uppers to the north sea, very close to England. Then colder air also moves in from the west. Meaning that even if an easterly doesn't deliver, the atlantic would.

The mean still has the atlantic winning out, which looks no bad thing.

Edited by jvenge

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1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Another cold rain / slush fest for us in the south.

Personally going for the stuck in no man's solution. Think this could resemble feb 12' where Europe went in the freezer but we were 300 miles too far west!

TBH yes, the further north you go (esp with some altitude) it could be very snowy - difficult to know, the EC op shows quite a bit of snow the further north you go ..

That said, i'm sure there will be twists and turns to come, ukmo , as steve says, could produce the easterly at 168-

Not sure what time that comes out :)

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1 minute ago, jvenge said:

Just as I depart for another Christmas celebration...

Control better than the Op and brings -8/-10 uppers to the north sea, very close to England. Then colder air also moves in from the west. Meaning that even if an easterly doesn't deliver, the atlantic would.

The mean still has the atlantic winning out and the atlantic eventually winning out, which looks no bad thing.

Yes i think thats a good point :)

Lots going on- as i said earlier, could do with Exeter being a bit more optimistic with more of the S word and less of the R word...

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12 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Another cold rain / slush fest for us in the south.

Personally going for the stuck in no man's solution. Think this could resemble feb 12' where Europe went in the freezer but we were 300 miles too far west!

Back then the south east went into the freezer to be fair. I remember seeing people walking on the frozen ponds in Richmond park.

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To me the UKMO 00z leaves us in a much better position for an easterly post t144 due to the stronger ridge over Scandinavia as well as the direction of travel of the low to the south of Greenland really doesn’t make much progress between t120 and t144 and actually pushes back further north. It also appears as if the high pressure is in charge as the heights extend slightly further into Greenland at t144 as well; that wouldn’t happen if an Atlantic onslaught was likely beyond the time frames we can see.

AF2B90E3-933E-42E9-8AEC-573BAFB9AFB5.jpeg

0EF01BEE-67B8-4FB2-AFA6-D484BC6E754A.png

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

It is now a week since we started chasing a cold Easterly that was due in a weeks time. At that point ECM and UKMO were on board. By midweek the models had found a middle ground where the Easterly didn’t quite make it so we have a week fairly mild Easterly and then the Atlantic comes back in potentially giving a blast of PM air as it takes a more south East tagedtory. Since then a few rouge runs have shown the easterly but it is only the UKMO and forecasts from a couple of memebers that are keeping the cold Easterly dream alive now. Don’t get your hopes up people! A cold Snowy easterly is very unlikely and people who tell you otherwise will go very quiet for a few days when it is completely off the table. I won’t be popular for this post but I’m just being honest and want to save people from disappointment. 

Yes you could be right Tim.

Its fascinating viewing though!

Fingers crossed the models upgrade the scandy high over the next day or two.

All eyes on Exeters musings later on .. :)

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Morning all

Overall today not much change from last night. I think what needs to be made clear at this stage is that we’re not realistically chasing what people would call a typical easterly within the ten day period. That’s a low probability at the moment.

Currently there’s a bit too much energy from the Atlantic , essentially we’re trying to force low heights into Central Europe and hoping for a lobe of high pressure to hang onto the ne.

Within this set up theres a scope of solutions , still a chance for a colder undercut from the se . Sometimes in these situations it can take several goes to back the pattern west and eventually get something from the east/ne.

If you’re glass is half empty  then it seems like a stalemate , if it’s half full you’ll be happy to see the outputs agree on a se tracking jet.

Detail at this point is still not possible because we still see earlier differences regarding the handling of shortwave energy near and to the n/ne of the UK.

However the se jet has good support from the models.

 

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Granted this is for the Netherlands, but the control run on ECM shows that the at least one of the high res op's still finds a path to very cold possibilities and in the short term too. Not saying this will happen though..

image.thumb.png.ddd73f5b5f141e71f84f6b005438ac62.png

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31 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It is now a week since we started chasing a cold Easterly that was due in a weeks time. At that point ECM and UKMO were on board. By midweek the models had found a middle ground where the Easterly didn’t quite make it so we have a week fairly mild Easterly and then the Atlantic comes back in potentially giving a blast of PM air as it takes a more south East tagedtory. Since then a few rouge runs have shown the easterly but it is only the UKMO and forecasts from a couple of memebers that are keeping the cold Easterly dream alive now. Don’t get your hopes up people! A cold Snowy easterly is very unlikely and people who tell you otherwise will go very quiet for a few days when it is completely off the table. I won’t be popular for this post but I’m just being honest and want to save people from disappointment. 

Yes I think I agree. In 2012 we got a little nearer to the prize but not for long. I remember it being 1.5c on the east coast with leaden skies with snow grains.

9C81FAF7-0330-4ECB-B851-AB768DCFB368.jpeg

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ext eps are a bit underwhelming actually- for de bilt the overwhelming majority say no to any easterly...

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well to me the EC mean shows quite a cold north westerly signal longer term- could be very exciting for those in NW Britan esp :)

EDH1-240.GIF?07-12

While obviously I love chasing a possible easterly further down the line as the ukmo  hints at, however, I would gladly accept cold / snow from other sources too!! ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄:cold-emoji::D

Edited by Frosty.

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well to me the EC mean shows quite a cold north westerly signal longer term- could be very exciting for those in NW Britan esp :)

EDH1-240.GIF?07-12

I think it's quite exciting actually - polar front through the centre of the UK, anything to the right on the NE side of the flow, jet way way south. Of course the mean isn't for the fine details, though, just an indication (hopefully!)

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19 minutes ago, grca said:

Granted this is for the Netherlands, but the control run on ECM shows that the at least one of the high res op's still finds a path to very cold possibilities and in the short term too. Not saying this will happen though..

image.thumb.png.ddd73f5b5f141e71f84f6b005438ac62.png

The control developed in a way steve hoped the op would. 

take the broad themes and little has changed in the past twelve hours. Nothing has left the table and nothing new has landed

 

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The control developed in a way steve hoped the op would. 

take the broad themes and little has changed in the past twelve hours. Nothing has left the table and nothing new has landed

 

Blue-

Id be interested in your thoughts on a potential cold north westerly as progged by the EC/EC Mean this morning- wintry suprises potentially for the north and west or not cold enough?

:)

Edited by northwestsnow

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UKMO extended has a band of heavy rain stretching from Scotland right down to North Africa

ukm2.2018011400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.9e48fc6034affaf6d4819a1a715fae70.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has a band of heavy rain stretching from NE Scotland right down to North Africa

ukm2.2018011400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.9e48fc6034affaf6d4819a1a715fae70.png

 

How do you know thats rain without seeing the picture to the NE Gavin?

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7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has a band of heavy rain stretching from Scotland right down to North Africa

ukm2.2018011400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.9e48fc6034affaf6d4819a1a715fae70.png

 

Why is the UKMO 168hr available only in that form and not where it matters the most ie the UK!?  It is after all a UK model and therefore the UK gets priority.

 

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13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has a band of heavy rain stretching from NE Scotland right down to North Africa

ukm2.2018011400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.9e48fc6034affaf6d4819a1a715fae70.png

 

To be it looks like there is a weakening front with precipitation over the Irish sea, western mainland and all the way down to Iberia. The flow is still continental for much of England at this stage. No proper easterly but this could be a snow event.

The Atlantic looks very active though so some kind of westerly/northwesterly should follow this chart.

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