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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Just now, Steve Murr said:

It still fails exactly the same when it comes to energy seperation- as being born out now at 96/120.

maybe something they didnt fix... i just think it often gets a raw deal on its historic failings when its actually been improved drastically over the years.

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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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Looking at the 18z gfs at 240hrs its not in a bad place tbh.its know ecm but the pv is dismantled and it is slowly but surely getting towards something not without interest! !!

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2 hours ago, stewfox said:

When did FI start at 1800 hrs ? . ECM held steady GFS flip flops and now a flip flop from the ECM. Await GFS 18z with interest. It's out come will have a bearing on the cost of entry to the GFS 0z . This exclusive club meets at 4am every day in the hope of a chart showing a flake of snow in the reliable. .just don't wake her in doors when you set off for it.

Have you replied to the wrong person, as it doesn't relate to what I said? 

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22 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

no, GFS lost the plot again, around next weekend

How on earth can the GFS (or any model, for that matter) have already lost the plot - next weekend? Does it have a TARDIS?:shok:

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I remember many disappointments over the years when it felt like everyone was laughing at stupid old GFS and banking the UKMO option of an Easterly only for GFS to claim the prize. 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

maybe something they didnt fix... i just think it often gets a raw deal on its historic failings when its actually been improved drastically over the years.

I dont get this at all??ecm showed the uk being close to a big freeze 3-4 days ago which vanished.ukmo today looks pretty good at144 hours then ecm puts out another corcker .why is gfs continually slagged off?.surely the end result is what matters not what is shown at 120 hours.best to stick to fax charts then if thats the case!!!

 

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9 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Poor in the end, losing the cold PM air that even the 12z had and way short of anything that GFS was coming up with for a few runs before that. The block is slowing eastward movement and bringing nothing of its own to the table as far as GFS is concerned, an ECM solution would be much better but this middle ground is nobody's friend.

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FI has to be between 96 and 120hrs going by the last week! It would be nice for our sanity in the morning if the big 3 could agree for  once and give us coldies something to look forward to:)

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1 minute ago, Wivenswold said:

I remember many disappointments over the years when it felt like everyone was laughing at stupid old GFS and banking the UKMO option of an Easterly only for GFS to claim the prize. 

And don't forget the disappointments in which all the models and all the pundits/experts have ended up egg-faced?:D

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13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And don't forget the disappointments in which all the models and all the pundits/experts have ended up egg-faced?:D

It beggers belief sometimes! !! If you look how often how many people hang there hat on the daily"meto extended outlook"updates which change daily then talk about ten day charts in regard to snowfall??

My point being the meto dont no!!!

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Well all I can say is it’s a good job the weather models don’t have feelings, or they would all be in a specialist unit by now seeking treatment....  

?

GFS has been a bit shocking recently, ECM hasn’t covered itself in glory, UKMO has done rather well, but the ecm is like a a free night in Ibiza, everyone wants a bit when it’s game :D

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16 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

For ECM the block is creating the colder outcome.

For GFS the block is derailing it.

It's a conundrum......

Why is it??? Its a computer generated forecast!!! It could all change next week and gfs could show 1947  850s and snowfall to the rafters. would you believe it possibly if ecm had the uk in a pm flow from the north west

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5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well all I can say is it’s a good job the weather models don’t have feelings, or they would all be in a specialist unit by now seeking treatment....  

?

GFS has been a bit shocking recently, ECM hasn’t covered itself in glory, UKMO has done rather well, but the ecm is like a a free night in Ibiza, everyone wants a bit when it’s game :D

I bet this block to the east will throw up a few surprises. The UKMO is consistently hinting at this. The longer the cold pool builds to the east the better. As many have said, these easterlies usually fail at first, only to come back stronger later. Maybe the 0z will start to show this.

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31 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

How on earth can the GFS (or any model, for that matter) have already lost the plot - next weekend? Does it have a TARDIS?:shok:

I don’t know about a Tardis but this Guys reaction was a classic when he realised we ate on the rollercoaster of chasing another easterly .

131DCE90-2595-47A4-A579-A6D3A3C52E13.jpeg

Good to see spirits higher in here today , have been following closely for over a week and it really has been a roller coaster whilst learning from the better knowledgeable all the time . 

Edited by Mark wheeler
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8 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I bet this block to the east will throw up a few surprises. The UKMO is consistently hinting at this. The longer the cold pool builds to the east the better. As many have said, these easterlies usually fail at first, only to come back stronger later. Maybe the 0z will start to show this.

I think it’s already been shown for a few days now. It’s almost been 1 step back 2 steps forward (maybe 1.5 steps forward) usually it’s the reverse, but these heights to our east or north east setups aren’t “standard fair” so Models will struggle. 

Will we get to that easterly we all crave? Who knows, but the Atlantic sure as hell won’t just fire through without a fight, no way. 

Ps thanks @Nick F , top analysis ! :good:

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I think it’s already been shown for a few days now. It’s almost been 1 step back 2 steps forward (maybe 1.5 steps forward) usually it’s the reverse, but these heights to our east or north east setups aren’t “standard fair” so Models will struggle. 

Will we get to that easterly we all crave? Who knows, but the Atlantic sure as hell won’t just fire through without a fight, no way. 

Yes, I’ve been following it and see that. My point being, ‘if’ we get that second bite at the cherry, it’s best to build the cold pool further and therefore have something to tap into down the line. I agree though, it’s all finely balanced.

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

It still fails exactly the same when it comes to energy seperation- as being born out now at 96/120.

True enough but the other two models have not covered themselves in glory either.

Even though the 18z goes down a different path what it is showing is the extra amplification in the upcoming pattern which I have been banging on about and which will effectively govern the pattern post t144. Hopefully we will wake to some great charts in the morning.

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4 minutes ago, comet said:

True enough but the other two models have not covered themselves in glory either.

Even though the 18z goes down a different path what it is showing is the extra amplification in the upcoming pattern which I have been banging on about and which will effectively govern the pattern post t144. Hopefully we will wake to some great charts in the morning.

Don’t expect the ecm to better or you’ll be disappointed, it really cant, gfs however, needs some work! UKMO stick to your guns please!  

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Although the GFS 18hrs run hasn't jumped on board it at least showed some interest in doing so in the early stages before its shortwave love in developed that shortwave to the ne to attach itself to the upstream troughing.

With still a trend to take the jet se'wards its at least not interested in barrelling the Atlantic eastwards and still develops that high to the north.

I'd rather not see some shortlived PM flow and take my chances that blocking to the ne will deliver something better.

Rather gamble a few hours of slush and some overhyped reporting from the BBC and go for the bigger prize. PM flows although good for some parts simply don't have the cold to deliver to most and we want to move to the Ritz rather than continually slumming it at the Premier Inn!

 

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You’d be hard pushed to call the ecm an outlier, but not exactly in the middle of its members that’s for sure towards the end of the run. Decent

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Night y’all ( trying some American to usher the cold in :whistling:)

 

Edited by karlos1983
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It’s fairly clear that the models are still under playing the Scandinavian high that will develop next week; hence why the models are still backtracking and strengthening the ridge next week (the latest being the ECMWF this evening). So I still think we will experience an easterly wind at some point in the near future, even if it isn’t for very long, and I still think our coldest spell of the winter is yet to come.

It almost feels as if the models have been so arrogant in ridding the Scandinavian high next week, and now that next week is approaching, they’re suddenly realising that their usual zonal rhetoric isn’t going to cut it this time. So I’m expecting the models to just keep the high lurking to our NE until they work out what they actually have to do with it. I’m personally with the UKMO model atm because the ECMWF has been even more indecisive than my dog recently, the GFS has been very different every run and slowly tiptoeing towards a stronger Scandinavian high, and the GEM, well, it’s the GEM...

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