Model output discussion - into 2018

[nick sussex]

The morning upgrades seem to have ground to a halt in the shorter term although the GFS is interesting later but I’m very dubious of anything churned out at the moment .

Differing views of that shortwave energy over the UK. The GFS attaches that to the upstream troughing and then the pattern is pulled east . The UKMO has a cleaner evolution and the net result is a stronger high better orientated, you want that facing the incoming trough so aligned more ne/sw which it just about manages.

I’d put FI as just T96 hrs because the handling of that shortwave energy is crucial to how the pattern evolves afterwards.

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, andymusic said:

pm air incoming - but held up a tad

Delayed by a few days and also downgraded. 

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Delayed by a few days and also downgraded. 

agreed - this gfs run a bit limp lettuce with no bite - can only upgrade from here - so we hope

[Singularity]

   

Somehow or other, GFS sees extensive HLB to the N and NW developing by days 10-12 for the second run in a row. 

Make of that what you will .

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Delayed by a few days and also downgraded. 

Who needs slush! 

We’re getting to that part of the winter where people are bored of the selection of starters and want the main course. 

Founder member CLAS.

Cold Lovers Against Slush ! 

[karyo]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Who needs slush! 

We’re getting to that part of the winter where people are bored of the selection of starters and want the main course. 

Founder member CLAS.

Cold Lovers Against Slush ! 

Nick, sadly this is the UK not the Pyrenees! Slush is the new powder snow. 

[ukpaul]

8 minutes ago, karyo said:

Delayed by a few days and also downgraded. 

Yes, that low became detached and wasn't able to move through quickly enough. We need to see a clearer path for it to pass through us to get any chance of the delights of GFS as shown recently via PM snow, that hold up for a couple of days just allowed that colder air to mix out.

EDIT: It's not going to be denied though, it manages it late in FI.

Edited January 6, 2018 by ukpaul

[bluearmy]

Fi gem and gfs quite different and gem makes more sense keeping the Scandi upper ridge 

however, it also brings uppers around -22c as far south as Alabama ! 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Yes, that low became detached and wasn't able to move through quickly enough. We need to see a clearer path for it to pass through us to get any chance of the delights of GFS as shown recently via PM snow, that hold up for a couple of days just allowed that colder air to mix out.

EDIT: It's not going to be denied though, it manages it late in FI.

We had the cold uppers at the 190 hour mark on the 6z, now they come after the 300 hours. :-)

[booferking]

Nice strat warming showing again on 12z.

Edited January 6, 2018 by booferking

[comet]

Once bitten twice shy. There is obviously disagreement between the ukmo and gfs as early as t96- t120 again with essentially the gfs further east with the pattern and not quite as amplified. A blend of these two models would still leave us in no mans land and fast approaching the middle of Jan. personally I think I am ready to throw the towel in on a possible easterly and instead concentrate on the amplification across the pole that may well lead to a prosperous cold snap/spell from the N/ NE down the line.

Must admit beginning to dread easterlies being modelled as they rarely come off but leave us in a state of limbo eating up valuable days or even weeks of winter without bearing any fruit.

[Tim Bland]

24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

There has NEVER been any 1 time with an UKMO Easterly at 120 ( jan 13 / Feb 9 ) where it’s then backtracked to follow a non agreeing GFS.

ever.

Problem is it’s the most toothless Easterly ever! V light winds, lots of cloud and uppers around -1c. Would rather the GFS outcome ! 

[N/A]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

Nick, sadly this is the UK not the Pyrenees! Slush is the new powder snow. 

And sadly for us on the coast of south Wales, hail is the new slush 

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Fi gem and gfs quite different and gem makes more sense keeping the Scandi upper ridge 

however, it also brings uppers around -22c as far south as Alabama ! 

Annoying but at least you can go buy a pint of milk in the UK without getting your head blown off!

They can keep their bomb cyclones and frigid air, we’ll keep our safer streets and civilized society here in Europe!

[Singularity]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Fi gem and gfs quite different and gem makes more sense keeping the Scandi upper ridge 

however, it also brings uppers around -22c as far south as Alabama ! 

Yikes. How about a slice of Alabama Freezecake?!

Meanwhile, GFS putting -20*C 850s into Scandinavia, just to remind us what we're missing out on next week in terms of potential cold air supply from the east.

Cheeky blighter 

GEM... needs some tweaking but I can see how the Scandi blocking could make a move to the WNW if the jet aligned NW-SE sufficiently;


 

[The Enforcer]

53 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

But at 96 the UKMO starts to dig lower heights into europe and tries to get under the block

This is the key timeframe to focus on the ECM output. With such differences remaining at that point anything that happens afterwards is only conjecture.

[nick sussex]

So far tonight the UKMO and NAVGEM have a better shortwave clearance.

The GEM and GFS messier.

The Arpege looks closer to the GFS at T120hrs. The ICON messier but shortwave energy is kept away from the main trough to the ne.

Theres not much middle ground apart from the ICON,  as soon as shortwave energy attaches to the troughing to the nw of the UK its basically game over as that will pull energy east and ne.

 

[snowray]

Gfs does look like a complete mess and is very inconsistent from run to run even in the relative short term. Having said this, the ens show full agreement for the complete lack of any significant cold into next week so thats the one thing that is consistent. 

Ens for London and central Scotland.

Edited January 6, 2018 by snowray

[stewfox]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

This was a famous example from December 2010

This led to the frigid February of 1986

This led to a big snowfall for parts of the Midlands

 We all want to see snow but.a bit.of straw clutching to suggest Dec 2010 model out put led to Feb 1986 synoptics. ? 

[bobbydog]

then, all of a sudden....

[bluearmy]

More strat jam in 16 days Bobby 

note ukmo at day 6 should strengthen the scandi ridge at day 7 with that vertical WAA up the west side 

[The Enforcer]

.... the omnipresent SSW at T+384.

[bobbydog]

Just now, bluearmy said:

More strat jam in 16 days Bobby 

note ukmo at day 6 should strengthen the scandi ridge at day 7 with that vertical WAA up the west side 

yeah, i know, would be nice though, i believe Feb 1991 came off the back of a late Jan SSW. and by their very nature they have to appear... suddenly...

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:

.... the omnipresent SSW at T+384.

thing is, there hasn't been any sign of it for a good few runs. at best, a displaced vortex or a mild hint at warming. then suddenly...

[tight isobar]

'Random'-snap gfs..

And we'll talk more about/after ecm 12z..

Also mjo phasing...things tightening!