Model output discussion - into 2018

[koeleboe]

UKMO goes again for it!

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Low pressure in charge by the early hours of Wednesday bringing widespread rain turning a bit colder again from the west

[SLEETY]

Ukmo not going with gfs again.lolThis saga never ends

[Ice Day]

UKMO at 120 looks pretty good to me, heights surging up towards the pole.  Can't see the uppers unfortunately, 144 'could' be very good.

[northwestsnow]

Yes ukmo making more the of the block but i'm not convinced the 144 chart will be as good as this morning..

[Day 10]

GFS & UKMO similar at 72

But at 96 the UKMO starts to dig lower heights into europe and tries to get under the block

[ArHu3]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

UKMO at 120 looks pretty good to me, heights surging up towards the pole.  Can't see the uppers unfortunately, 144 'could' be very good.

[ribster]

3 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Low pressure in charge by the early hours of Wednesday bringing widespread rain turning a bit colder again from the west

It's going to be a long aftetnoon/evening if you provide a comment on every frame ?

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Cheers ArHu3.  The cold is there to the east, can we get it west?

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Snow over parts of northern Scotland Wednesday night, a ridge of high pressure pushing in on Thursday from the southwest. Another deep low south of Greenland  

Edited January 6, 2018 by Draig Goch

[Day 10]

Maybe a few bites of the cherry needed but UKMO looks decent to me.

[Day 10]

Nothing like the models agreeing though

[winterof79]

24 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

The GFS 12z, has a cut off low across Iberia, that's disappointing news for those going on holidays there in the next few days as it looks wet windy and cooler than recently too.

Much more settled for the UK & Ireland at this stage but quite cold. 

I am There and the colder air has arrived.

[karyo]

The 12z UKMO has shifted the pattern slightly further east. However, it is not a lot different to its earlier output which is surprising given the Meto update. Also, the 12z gfs and the ICON are having none of it.

[ukpaul]

Low pressure system taken not elongating enough this time, so the colder PM air likely to be held back, unfortunately, maybe cleared by the 15th or 16th?

EDIT: UKMO looks better, more stretched.

Edited January 6, 2018 by ukpaul

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That deep low south of Greenland is very slowly moving east by midnight Saturday. 

[Ice Day]

No inter run consistency with the GFS out to 168.

12z  6z 

Some encouragement however, is the block is putting up a better fight on this run

Edit.  The 144 uppers on UKMO look decent....incoming!

Edited January 6, 2018 by Ice Day

[Singularity]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

No inter run consistency with the GFS out to 168.

12z  6z 

Some encouragement however, is the block is putting up a better fight on this run

The Canadian vortex is focused quite a bit further west on this run due to a very poleward EPO ridge taking shape, which is a very interesting development as it should mean less intensification of the N. Atlantic jet during next weekend, meaning less to push the blocking to the E and NE out of the way.

 

Question is, do we now see a stalemate with both the cold sinking vortex lobe and cold easterly scenarios denied, or does this adjustment allow the blocking high to extend sufficiently back west?
Combine this upstream adjustment with the 12z UKMO and you have some intriguing prospects to say the least.
 

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

That deep low moves south and fills, very strong jet stream pushing out of the USA but dives to the south (at this stage anyway). Strong Azores & Scandinavian high. 

So very little snow this week but on the plus side, we do lose the frequent heavy rain/squally showers and severe gales we saw this week and instead, replace it with more relatively benign weather. 

[SMU]

There has NEVER been any 1 time with an UKMO Easterly at 120 ( jan 13 / Feb 9 ) where it’s then backtracked to follow a non agreeing GFS.

ever.

Edited January 6, 2018 by Steve Murr

[ukpaul]

As I said earlier, a middle ground on GFS, pleasing nobody. We either need a perfect block and undercutting or allow the PM air to flood out from the North West.

[SLEETY]

Gfs looks a complete mess in the important part of the run between 120 and t 144.I  bet their is huge scatter in the ensembles later

[andymusic]

pm air incoming - but held up a tad

[snowice]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

There has NEVER been any 1 time with an UKMO Easterly at 120 ( jan 13 / Feb 9 ) where it’s then backtracked to follow a non agreeing GFS.

ever.

Until there's cross model agreement, after ecms failure I think we need to wait but it's a valid statistic  

Edited January 6, 2018 by snowice

[ukpaul]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

pm air incoming - but held up a tad

Jet diving into Iberia.