Model output discussion - into 2018

[blizzard81]

The models just take it in turns to mess with our heads. It's the ukmo's turn today. 

[bobbydog]

39 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon Everyone -

As the day evolves today with the UKMO 144/168 being epic  - there could be a decent meeting point that UKMO 168-192 seeing’s Atlantic moving SE a la GFS & engaging the cold air ahead of it - that way we have fronts with cold air ahead & behind - a sure fire recipe for snow....

 

S

i would say the UKMO 144 looks more like the ECM- 

is there not a risk that the UKMO follows the path of the ECM? (which is not so epic...)

though not boring!

Edited January 6, 2018 by bobbydog

[The Enforcer]

3 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

I have observed this 'detached PV over UK synoptic' projected at range on several occasions over the years. Can anyone post a chart where it has actually happened?

Edited January 6, 2018 by The Enforcer

[Dennis]

we need to see how details will be take place but when very cold air is coming over sea --- then you may guess what the outcome will be 

[comet]

21 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The models just take it in turns to mess with our heads. It's the ukmo's turn today. 

I had been thinking the same thing lol. I must admit to not being totally convinced by the UKMO, sure there is definite improvement and amplification from the ecm 12z to this mornings 0z and even on the gfs 06z but it take a leap of faith to go from the ukmo t96 to t120 .

Edited January 6, 2018 by comet

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Dennis said:

we need to see how details will be take place but when very cold air is coming over sea --- then you may guess what the outcome will be 

I think it’s crazy already hanging hopes on a chilly sleety PM flow. Give me cold air off the east any day, UKMO says yes to a prolonged E’ly cold spell & FAX charts this morning are less inclined for Atlantic to break through. A typical case of the models underestimating the block I wouldn’t look past day 6 at the moment. 

[KTtom]

4 minutes ago, Dennis said:

we need to see how details will be take place but when very cold air is coming over sea --- then you may guess what the outcome will be 

Yep, it'll head south into France and Spain?

[ArHu3]

6 minutes ago, Dennis said:

we need to see how details will be take place but when very cold air is coming over sea --- then you may guess what the outcome will be 

Sleet, hail and freezing rain?

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

I have observed this 'detached PV over UK synoptic' projected at range on several occasions over the years. Can anyone post a chart where it has actually happened?

further to my last post, the ECM and the GFS both show a similar scenario evolving but the GFS gets there sooner-

so whilst they may not be as "epic" as the UKMO, there is the possibility that whatever path we end up going down (other than the garden path!) it could lead to a snowy outcome for most of us...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM too progressive, still but coming round.

Ukmo more on the money

GFS 00z showing the Atlantic coming in around 15-17 with chunk of PV on negative tilt....looking positive.

As I said, the ECM I didn’t believe coz I believe it was and still is wrong...yet coming round.

Around 17th is up for grabs.....the pv segment may barrel through on W to E BUT I believe it will be classic battleground territory.  Block to East to hold.  Potential for slider action but I’ll go for general SE flow until it comes through last week of Jan when the main course is anticipated to be served.   TheWest be aware.

Either way watch for very cold uppers off the Atlantic.  Talk of not cold enough feed from Continent, maybe not deep cold but watch the West....every chance it won’t matter much.

Some great model watching ahead, solar wind to hit next day ir two......don’t assume the SW regime will win as many submitted to yesterday and Thurs.

Enough ramblings, the changes and swinging are pleasing and encouraging.

BFTP

 

 

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, comet said:

I had been thinking the same thing lol. I must admit to not being totally convinced by the UKMO, sure there is definite improvement and amplification from the ecm 12z to this mornings 0z and even on the gfs 06z but it take a leap of faith to go from the ukmo t96 to t120 .

I'm not buying the ukmo. It is too out of kilter at very short notice. I am sure the 12z run will be much less blocked unfortunately. 

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm not buying the ukmo. It is too out of kilter at very short notice. I am sure the 12z run will be much less blocked unfortunately. 

It's happened before ..............

[Chris101]

I said a couple of nights ago, as long as you have heights to the NE for such a lengthy timeframe models will be in turmoil trying to pin its movement down (unlike that more predictable thing to the SW) things can change very quickly from past experience.

I also find it absolutely brilliant that we now have 2 camps building, getting colder conditions from different synoptics, Now c'mon..........We don't see that too often!!

The next week or so could be some of the best model watching ever!!

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

CFS says March winds will be cold across much of Europe and keeps it a bit colder than average across the UK into April too. We had snow showers at the end of April last year, could it happen again this year who knows we might end up with a white Easter? Lol 

[joggs]

41 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM too progressive, still but coming round.

Ukmo more on the money

GFS 00z showing the Atlantic coming in around 15-17 with chunk of PV on negative tilt....looking positive.

As I said, the ECM I didn’t believe coz I believe it was and still is wrong...yet coming round.

Around 17th is up for grabs.....the pv segment may barrel through on W to E BUT I believe it will be classic battleground territory.  Block to East to hold.  Potential for slider action but I’ll go for general SE flow until it comes through last week of Jan when the main course is anticipated to be served.   TheWest be aware.

Either way watch for very cold uppers off the Atlantic.  Talk of not cold enough feed from Continent, maybe not deep cold but watch the West....every chance it won’t matter much.

Some great model watching ahead, solar wind to hit next day ir two......don’t assume the SW regime will win as many submitted to yesterday and Thurs.

Enough ramblings, the changes and swinging are pleasing and encouraging.

BFTP

 

 

Sorry but disagree.The models backed off the phantom easterly and to me suggest no detachment of segments of the vortex towards us.

We will probably stay on the wrong side of the rotating trough out west with wintry weather restricted to hills in the north.

We shall see.

[joggs]

3 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

CFS says March winds will be cold across much of Europe and keeps it a bit colder than average across the UK into April too. We had snow showers at the end of April last year, could it happen again this year who knows we might end up with a white Easter? Lol 

Yes,cold spring again lol.

Coldies,including myself should start model watching end of February.

Edited January 6, 2018 by joggs

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, The Enforcer said:

I have observed this 'detached PV over UK synoptic' projected at range on several occasions over the years. Can anyone post a chart where it has actually happened?

This was a famous example from December 2010

This led to the frigid February of 1986

This led to a big snowfall for parts of the Midlands

Edited January 6, 2018 by Weather-history

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, joggs said:

Sorry but disagree.The models backed off the phantom easterly and to me suggest no detachment of segments of the vortex towards us.

We will probably stay on the wrong side of the rotating trough out west with wintry weather restricted to hills in the north.

We shall see.

Fine re what might happen....but models are showing this today

BFTP 

[Jason M]

28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It's happened before ..............

I can think of a good few occasions where the METO has been on its own in saying 'no' only to be proved right. Though that's probably true of ECM and GFS as well and given that saying no to a cold spell leans towards climatology its not a great surprise really and why we really need to see multi run, full model agreement before getting excited as a 'blend' almost always means 'close but no cigar'.

On this occasion though Meto is saying the opposite with zero support that I can see from anything else (not that even meto is that convincing IMHO in showing anything meaningful). I guess we will find out soon enough but I'm surprised some on here are still seeing a big easterly (not saying you are).

Would love to be proved wrong but it all just looks like normal winter fare for the foreseeable. 

 

[winterof79]

26 minutes ago, joggs said:

Sorry but disagree.The models backed off the phantom easterly and to me suggest no detachment of segments of the vortex towards us.

We will probably stay on the wrong side of the rotating trough out west with wintry weather restricted to hills in the north.

We shall see.

Surely this is a suggestion of a chunk of detached vortex? That is not to say it will pan out that way but it is suggested on the models shown.

ECM

GFS

A cold signal starting to show on the ensembles too around the 15th at the end of high res.

Edited January 6, 2018 by winterof79

[joggs]

14 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Surely this is a suggestion of a chunk of detached vortex? That is not to say it will pan out that way but it is suggested on the models shown.

ECM

GFS

A cold signal starting to show on the ensembles too around the 15th at the end of high res.

Moving slightly more towards us but no detachment to give us real cold.

We just stay on the wrong side with wintryness restricted to hills,especially in north.

The models have been threatening detachment of the trough towards us for a few days now but just ain't happening.

That's just my oppion of course.

[bluearmy]

Re the ukmo being different - if it weren’t for the day 7 chart I wouldn’t be that interested but it clearly goes on to undercut so let’s see what the 12z  does

given the Exeter update you would expect it to revert a bit 

 

 

[andymusic]

gfs 12z on it's way out - what pm air/easterly will it go with this time

spot the deliberate met mistake here - We are likely to see spells of rain, showers and strong winds moving across the country, along with a risk of show at times especially in the north.

Edited January 6, 2018 by andymusic

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

The GFS 12z, has a cut off low across Iberia, that's disappointing news for those going on holidays there in the next few days as it looks wet windy and cooler than recently too.

Much more settled for the UK & Ireland at this stage but quite cold. 

Edited January 6, 2018 by Draig Goch

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

Turning milder with some rain moving into Ireland by Tuesday morning. Drizzle in central & eastern UK, drier in the north & west.

Edited January 6, 2018 by Draig Goch