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Model output discussion - into 2018

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13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You sort of are karlos  😉) - I can only see evidence of snowfall on the tops of the hills from the regionals (and TM's fell yesterday!)

anyway, the 06z looks under amplified over scandi so perhaps not the best guidance 

 

Defamation of character :nonono:you’ll hear from my lawyers.... :D

granted I’m on my phone so can’t see people’s altitude, but I also didn’t state low level snow :p

What’s your punt late next week BA? Or you on the fence..?

CS,  I’m fairly thick skinned I didn’t take offence. I probably should have looked at people’s altitude first anyway.

 

Edited by karlos1983

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GFS 06z has a portion of the polar vortex moving towards the UK but noticeably it drags some intensely cold air off Canada with it. Interesting if that were to come off.

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Looking like the arctic high will link up across Greenland and split the PV, leaving most of it our side of the NH.  Could be an interesting FI coming up

gfsnh-0-228.png?6

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dissed the 06z earlier but note in week 2 it heads towards ventrice's analogue (though way too early !)

on the fence karlos because we are between two big features 

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Thanks for the reply Dave. It does feel like a win win situation at the moment. GFS is being very consistent in bringing cold zonality and a snow risk on 15th / 16th and ECM is going that way too. 

If you look at the Northern Hemisphere view you will see this isn’t a bog standard north west flow...Heights over the pole are pushing the Jet well south and the anomalous cold over Canada is pushing south east. Uppers of -8c associated with a chunk of the PV could be very exciting! 

 

 

B82F522B-5748-416B-9577-B64AB31107E5.png

AE0A3493-76F5-4A07-A084-ED6ADDC812B8.png

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very snowy next weekend should GFS be correct, Monday after especially in -6c uppers so pretty much anywhere - forget the East feed, get this on.

now this is a chart 😳

6B7B4318-27D8-437F-B8F9-E5B110F5238B.png

Indeed

Maybe this is one of the significant snow events the professionals  have been hinting at.

C.S

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And 240 isn't without interest. The uppers possibly just the right side of marginal for most?  All for fun though at this range of course 

gfsnh-0-240.png?6 gfsnh-1-240.png?6

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I quite like gfs 6Z this morning. Good points by teits regarding both below av temps either from the east or nw. Interesting output either way and late on quite wintry on the gfs 6z.Bank!!!

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3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Indeed

Maybe this is one of the significant snow events the professionals  have been hinting at.

C.S

They were suggesting a block being attacked from the Atlantic and hitting cold air imho.

 

With regards to the output. Until t96 to t120 is sorted everything else is JFF. The fax charts are interesting and would suggest to me that they think ecm and gfs are being to keen with regards to moving the block. We will see.

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I should add that I am still on the side of the UKMO. The 06Z GFS is way to progressive with its movement towards the E. The block to the E and the low moving SE will occur much further W than GFS is suggesting.

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hmm... sooner or later the GFS has to get the evolution correct.

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.674b1adfd0700440f86209c38e12c6a0.png

snow tyres going on the ebay watch-list.

just in case....

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6 hours ago, snowfish1 said:

Morning NWS

that was a pleasant shock to wake up to !! Where did that come from? Do u expect GFS and ECM to follow suit ??

Eventually yes, may take a few runs though.

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17 minutes ago, snowbob said:

I’m with teits regarding this mornings ukmo

feels like it could be a classic easterly on the cards, when models drop the idea completely and then start showing signs again. (Albeit only ukmo at the moment)

12z may shed a bit more light on this.

imo the block to our east is being hugely underestimated/ under modelled at the moment.

The fact that only the UKMO is showing this doesn't fill me with confidence. The 0z gfs was closer to the UKMO than the 6z.

We have been led up the garden path by the UKMO before when it showed the coldest outcome.

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Sky Full

Genius!!!!!!!! Absoloutely love it 

 

Going to save that of thats ok. 

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I’m also not convinced of this easterly, especially as the latest weather on news 24 shows milder temperatures by mid week coming from the west.  There is no model agreement between the big 3 which also throws up further doubts.

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The GFS 06hrs run shows the difference when you have too much shortwave energy hanging around the UK.

As soon as that attaches to the upstream trough the whole pattern will be shunted east with less energy going se.

The ensembles will generally be even worse handling that because of their lower resolution.

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Long time since I've seen members go so low on DE BILT

image.thumb.png.da37bcb0250ffe93b6ea0dc9eef99026.png

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The team are having to remove some off topic content which should be in other threads.

In busy times we can't always msg everyone involved so if you find your post has gone then take it that was deemed off topic.General chat/banter,met office outlooks,snow memories of yesteryear etc just clog the thread up.

We do try and let discussion flow within reason but posts with no sensible content based on outputs are not for here.

Please help to keep this thread useful and enjoyable for us all by keeping to views around the charts.

Ok thanks all- onwards we go.:)

 

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The extended ens in general heading towards the ec46 from the past few runs - for perspective, meto further just issued is less battleground than earlier and more mobile sw/ne 

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33 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Long time since I've seen members go so low on DE BILT

image.thumb.png.da37bcb0250ffe93b6ea0dc9eef99026.png

It happens at least every 2 weeks, or so every winter past 120h and even more so later,  even (late) December 2015, just when you are about to give up model watching and with even more members following. It just never comes to fruition.  When the plume looks like below is the time to get excited 

 

weerpluim-januari-20131.png

Edited by ArHu3

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Two options, both interesting, but the middle ground is the concern wasting that colder PM air via a stronger block. This would end up sending the elongated system too far south to benefit us in the way that GFS and others do at 210h whilst being too weak and shaped poorly to deliver anything.

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