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Model output discussion - into 2018


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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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Thanks for the reply Dave. It does feel like a win win situation at the moment. GFS is being very consistent in bringing cold zonality and a snow risk on 15th / 16th and ECM is going that way too. 

If you look at the Northern Hemisphere view you will see this isn’t a bog standard north west flow...Heights over the pole are pushing the Jet well south and the anomalous cold over Canada is pushing south east. Uppers of -8c associated with a chunk of the PV could be very exciting! 

 

 

B82F522B-5748-416B-9577-B64AB31107E5.png

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very snowy next weekend should GFS be correct, Monday after especially in -6c uppers so pretty much anywhere - forget the East feed, get this on.

now this is a chart ?

6B7B4318-27D8-437F-B8F9-E5B110F5238B.png

Indeed

Maybe this is one of the significant snow events the professionals  have been hinting at.

C.S

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I quite like gfs 6Z this morning. Good points by teits regarding both below av temps either from the east or nw. Interesting output either way and late on quite wintry on the gfs 6z.Bank!!!

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3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Indeed

Maybe this is one of the significant snow events the professionals  have been hinting at.

C.S

They were suggesting a block being attacked from the Atlantic and hitting cold air imho.

 

With regards to the output. Until t96 to t120 is sorted everything else is JFF. The fax charts are interesting and would suggest to me that they think ecm and gfs are being to keen with regards to moving the block. We will see.

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I should add that I am still on the side of the UKMO. The 06Z GFS is way to progressive with its movement towards the E. The block to the E and the low moving SE will occur much further W than GFS is suggesting.

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6 hours ago, snowfish1 said:

Morning NWS

that was a pleasant shock to wake up to !! Where did that come from? Do u expect GFS and ECM to follow suit ??

Eventually yes, may take a few runs though.

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17 minutes ago, snowbob said:

I’m with teits regarding this mornings ukmo

feels like it could be a classic easterly on the cards, when models drop the idea completely and then start showing signs again. (Albeit only ukmo at the moment)

12z may shed a bit more light on this.

imo the block to our east is being hugely underestimated/ under modelled at the moment.

The fact that only the UKMO is showing this doesn't fill me with confidence. The 0z gfs was closer to the UKMO than the 6z.

We have been led up the garden path by the UKMO before when it showed the coldest outcome.

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I’m also not convinced of this easterly, especially as the latest weather on news 24 shows milder temperatures by mid week coming from the west.  There is no model agreement between the big 3 which also throws up further doubts.

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The GFS 06hrs run shows the difference when you have too much shortwave energy hanging around the UK.

As soon as that attaches to the upstream trough the whole pattern will be shunted east with less energy going se.

The ensembles will generally be even worse handling that because of their lower resolution.

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33 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Long time since I've seen members go so low on DE BILT

image.thumb.png.da37bcb0250ffe93b6ea0dc9eef99026.png

It happens at least every 2 weeks, or so every winter past 120h and even more so later,  even (late) December 2015, just when you are about to give up model watching and with even more members following. It just never comes to fruition.  When the plume looks like below is the time to get excited 

 

weerpluim-januari-20131.png

Edited by ArHu3
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Two options, both interesting, but the middle ground is the concern wasting that colder PM air via a stronger block. This would end up sending the elongated system too far south to benefit us in the way that GFS and others do at 210h whilst being too weak and shaped poorly to deliver anything.

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3 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

The MetO seem to be painting a fairly unsettled period with rain and strong winds though snow at times in the north going of the latest update. So not sure if MOGREPS is singing from the same hymn sheet as what the UKMO amd other model suites are showing, though the GFS seems nearer to the update?

Not just reserved for the North if you read it again. So the chunk of vortex scenario ala GFS with a blend of UKMO becomes a distinct possibility further down the line with the block doing just enough to keep us on the colder side hopefully

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13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The extended ens in general heading towards the ec46 from the past few runs - for perspective, meto further just issued is less battleground than earlier and more mobile sw/ne 

While the Met Office update isn't encouraging it does still mention possible snow and temps varying around average so not so sure on SW-NE, maybe more W-E with the Jet directed at us averaged out over the period as opposed to to the NE, GEFS still fairly chilly although tbf these are moderating run by run now.

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16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

While the Met Office update isn't encouraging it does still mention possible snow and temps varying around average so not so sure on SW-NE, maybe more W-E with the Jet directed at us averaged out over the period as opposed to to the NE, GEFS still fairly chilly although tbf these are moderating run by run now.

The sw/ne based on their more unsettled further nw than se 

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