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Model output discussion - into 2018

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1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Very good post illustrating what I suggest to folk, stick with one model and see how it changes or not rather than watching every frame of every run WHEN in distant time scales, say beyond T+144h. Below that the fine to compare each model as they slowly zero in on T+00.

It does work, honest.

Agree forget F1 too far away and majority of the time cold gets watered down or completely shunted. 

I personally think that Azores high needs to super duper far westward or a mid Atlantic high needs to just sit allowing northerly lows with trailing fronts bringing deep cold with then potential incursions from the Northeast. And of course a north high or east is great too but ideal an mid Atlantic vertical high to block the powerful horizontal jet but take it over the top instead. 

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14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Look a bit lame to me hand on heart.

Need one of the colder members to gather support if its going to be anything other than well, not much.

Whilst it may appear tame take it V the context of the last few runs

watch the dip get deeper...

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep- i said about the same Blue.

I assume you are referencing GEFS?

Yes - but I did edit it to extended. The detail pre day 8 is tough to analyse and as I stated later, may make the extended look rather different if it heads down the more ukmo path 

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

Whilst it may appear tame take it V the context of the last few runs

watch the dip get deeper...

Hope so mate-

Will keep a beady eye on Exeters musings shortly :)

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Modeling suggests that It looks unlikely we will see a true Continental easterly from this split flow at the end of the week.

We do see trough disruption with the Atlantic being held back for a short while as the trough gets cut off by rising pressure from the Azores linking with the heights further east.We then end up with a cyclonic easterly as the low drops south into the continent.The problem with relatively weak heights extending from south of the jet,which essentially is what we have here, is that often too much energy remains running over the top and wedge of surface heights comes under pressure from the Canadian/Greenland vortex..

The later frames of the ECM mean continue to show a similar scenario to yesterdays

EDH1-168.GIF?31-12EDH1-192.GIF?31-12EDH1-240.GIF?31-12

 

Just flicking through the Icelandic eps they do show increasing influence from heights further east with a 39% cluster now showing +ve anomalies extending towards Iceland by day 15.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017123100_360.

The blocking however is still looking too far east with the mean pattern showing the UK still under the influence of the Atlantic.As ever though the later GFS Op looks over keen on firing the northern jet right through and looking at the main clustering in the eps those heights further ne are not going away so something may develop further into January,something worth monitoring.

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Looking at the clusters at T240, it seems clear to me that the Atlantic trough is struggling to remove heights to the NE. Not that this necessary means an easterly for the UK beyond D7/D8 (in fact a block too far east could mean very mild and wet), but it does leave the carrot dangling, and memories of models underestimating the strength of eastern blocks in winters past...

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017123100_240.

Edited by Man With Beard

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Im a bit reluctant to post the meto update as i don't want to cause offence but its a very positive one for coldies,showers turning to snow next fri and a very cold weekend/early part of next week.

With the models in mind i cannot see anything that suggests showers turning to snow by next friday?

 

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If we do end up with a weak easterly followed by a cold north westerly this maybe no bad thing as such transitions often bring widespread snow as fronts move east.

20th January 1978 was a classic example, it was a month dominated by cold zonality but a brief easterly in the 3rd week was followed by a nationwide snowfall as north westerly winds took over. Snow depths varied from 5cms at Heathrow, 10 cms at Birmingham and 15cms atGlasgow airport. At dawn that day snowfall extended from Southern England toNorthern Scotland and you were unlucky to miss out.

Andy

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im a bit reluctant to post the meto update as i don't want to cause offence but its a very positive one for coldies,showers turning to snow next fri and a very cold weekend/early part of next week.

With the models in mind i cannot see anything that suggests showers turning to snow by next friday?

 

Only one way for snow to arrive Friday is that wedge of heights over Iceland to grow bigger each run and the low crossing the country pushed further South and going by what we have seen this winter that is a big possibility.

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49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hope so mate-

Will keep a beady eye on Exeters musings shortly :)

Hope they go with their own model t144 was a peach.yet most seem to be ignoring it and going on what the models are showing beyond that time frame,which makes no sense 

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afternoon all, on this fine... last day of 2017.

been busy with festivities and work so not been on much. nothing particularly exciting in the very near term in the models. however... its been said that the GEFS are not great. i dont think they are bad at all. (obviously longer range has to be viewed with the usual caution but...) 

height rises around scandi seem to be on the cards in some guise or another and a few perturbations throw up some cracking easterlies, like this one at +240-

gensnh-5-1-240.thumb.png.33dc8e17f6900d179c23133344237053.png

then this one at +300

gensnh-18-1-300.thumb.png.7016f01279e9915bfe8e6757a317224a.png

but what i noticed more, is the mean at +300. it highlights a pacific ridge and aleutian low

gensnh-21-1-300.thumb.png.24c8c8d4962d7e21265fdd9b03e7e2b7.png

the 06z op is pretty 'zonal'. this goes against most of its ensembles which are setting up a much more meridional flow.

keep your sledges accessible, this winter is far from over.....

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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im a bit reluctant to post the meto update as i don't want to cause offence but its a very positive one for coldies,showers turning to snow next fri and a very cold weekend/early part of next week.

With the models in mind i cannot see anything that suggests showers turning to snow by next friday?

 

Yes it looks good, and a tweet from Ian F saying unsure of how long cold will last is good to hear - maybe not a simple shove from the west 🤔

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45 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Hope they go with their own model t144 was a peach.yet most seem to be ignoring it and going on what the models are showing beyond that time frame,which makes no sense 

Their own model doesnt show 850s cold enough for snow out to 144?

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2 hours ago, DIS1970 said:

Thanks for that, i don't think i'll post anything again, as finding the correct words is difficult, so i think i will just watch from a distance. Been trying to recover for 10 years, and 3 from the op, so it's unlikely. Forget about that, this is a weather forum, so i won't interfere again.

You are NOT interfering at all, keep posting 

 

BFTP

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48 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Hope they go with their own model t144 was a peach.yet most seem to be ignoring it and going on what the models are showing beyond that time frame,which makes no sense 

They have mogreps which will put the eps into more perspective. the two clusters away from the op one were more amplified and would therefore advect more cold. no one should be surprised about showers being of snow in January when it's cold! 

we can only interpret what we have access to - as has been said already, no one knows how this will play out but the trend is one of the ridge not bringing notable cold to the uk. However, this could easily reverse as small differences around day 5/6 will have larger consequences later on. With blocking set ups, the orientation of the blocking is everything for our small island. 

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Whilst it may appear tame take it V the context of the last few runs

watch the dip get deeper...

Are you thinking of pressure dropping towards E Europe/Germany (lower than currently modelled) with the pressure build near Scandi which will then send more cold West - assuming the models are right about the pressure rise to begin with?

We've seen this before with this kind of setup.

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26 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

Happy New Year from here in Australia (now in 2018).

AAM currently negative and stuck in Phase 2.

IMG_3552.thumb.GIF.26632daabb9bdfe0a26b014be942f535.GIF

FT currently negative.

Worldwide MT driven by a +Rockies MT into positive values, but EAMT moving negative.

IMG_3553.thumb.GIF.d6667145d0e511e0d0bec4b0f6bf858a.GIF

Interesting times momentum wise....

I meant Weak Phase 2, because it is in the weak circle, so it really isn't in a phase. Just highlighting the -AAM.

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I don’t think that’s accurate at all 

Just now, Malcolm Edwards said:

Off topic but have just notice 154 mph gust in farnborough?is this correct on xc weather?

 

 

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