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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

I like the look of that:D

 

Funny, I was looking through the output tonight, looking at the heights pushing into the Arctic, looking at the way the Atlantic is going and I was thinking exactly the same thing - maybe a bit earlier than them - from looking at the charts I have a "gut-instinct" for a northerly sometime between 15th and 20th January. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict the pattern to be even faster than forecast in the next 10 days (when is it not??) and heights cut-off to the north to push back on the Atlantic trough causing a breakthrough near Greenland. I've seen this once a few years back.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

It’s a shame that shortwave energy near the UK waits around and attaches to the upstream troughing .

This stops more energy from heading se, and a cleaner pattern to the n/ne would mean the troughing approaching more favourably.

Enough to keep the interest going though.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
6 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Ok,so after all the upheavals of the last few days GFS and ECM agree on cold zonality by day 9.

Suits me fine, that half arsed easterly was never going to amount to much anyway!

Andy

A lot can happen between now and then!

this is gfs 18z at 216 compared to the 18z 240 last night

gfsnh-0-216.png?18gfsnh-0-240.png?18

trough sharpening up to the west of the BI against a stronger block(forcasted) plus more of a block than last night

it has been a step back again from the gfs on this instance,like i said last night that with a block modeled to be some 1030-1040 mb to our NE it will be a stuggle to shift it

nine days is a long time in Meteology but quiet interested to see how this evolves:)

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Funny, I was looking through the output tonight, looking at the heights pushing into the Arctic, looking at the way the Atlantic is going and I was thinking exactly the same thing - maybe a bit earlier than them - from looking at the charts I have a "gut-instinct" for a northerly sometime between 15th and 20th January. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict the pattern to be even faster than forecast in the next 10 days (when is it not??) and heights cut-off to the north to push back on the Atlantic trough causing a breakthrough near Greenland. I've seen this once a few years back.

GP was alluding to the idea that the Alaskan ridge was to form in the Pacific after an initial one in earlier post's and head east waning the thaw in the US,maybe this will amplify off the east coast of US.

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

It's rare I pull out the Vardy,but the last 30pgs or so merit it. 

S80106-243726.jpg

As many and I mentioned, an easterly can be a beauty but if they go wrong u get dry and a bit cold. BUT even worse they can stick around just waste time away.

However, if we are lucky as it's looking thankfully, it will throw some warm air into the pole, which is a very good sign at this time of year and it's not looking to fester where it is, so it should keep the jet South which opens lots of doors, rather than being reliant on one golden solution.

Keep the faith, changes a coming.

Edited by geordiekev
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice, thunderstorms
  • Location: Oldbury
1 hour ago, More Snow said:

might be talking about us in the North East of Scotland AKA the UK  we really need to thaw out after the last 4 weeks of sub zero temps at least 16 days of snow on the ground and ice day a plenty..... some need to remember or realise that the UK winter does not just happen in the south east....

Midlands have also faired well this winter with about 4 decent falls and one very heavy fall that blanketed the Midlands in a foot of snow. But I would like an Easterly for the Southerns even though a NW PM incursion does the job for me from an imby point of view. I want to see the whole country get in on the act and it's clear as day the models still haven't got a good grasp on how much energy is going to come from NE America and fire up the Atlantic. Expect the Models to look very diffrent in a few days time.

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Posted
  • Location: Bishop Auckland, Durham NE
  • Location: Bishop Auckland, Durham NE

PM.... Polar mass?

 

Sorry, seen the abbreviation used a few times and never been sure what it means,

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
33 minutes ago, Chris. said:

PM.... Polar mass?

 

Sorry, seen the abbreviation used a few times and never been sure what it means,

Polar Maritime buddy, air that originates from the pole region (greenland ) then travels over the atlantic ocean so its normally tempered somewhat , unlike a polar flow from the north (straight down) or polar continental (air from the north east/east originating from the pole). All are shown on the link ?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/how-weather-works/air-masses/types 

 

Edited by Nicholas B
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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
4 hours ago, abbie123 said:

I felt that the meto update today was  positive today for cold and just seen  long range BBC outlook and where in south westerly by end of next week .:cc_confused:

It's been coming for 48 hrs or so despite some despots on here.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

From the undercutting will come the full blown easterly. ECM hasn't got anything wrong yet because its all still in the future. I'm still looking forward to a prolonged January easterly.    

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

at 120 on gfs 00z

stronger Bering/Alaska low

the rest remains. upstream experts pls discuss

gfsnh-0-120.png

may help pump arctic high..theoretical cfd, of course.

Edited by kumquat
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I think there will be one or two eyebrows raised at this mornings UKMO.

UN144-21.GIF?06-05

More WAA into N latitudes and Atlantic backed West.

The 168 chart should look quite promising.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Signs of life!!!!

ukmo resusitates coldies hopes!!!!

You couldnt make it up!!

Ps shaky seeing as your probably snoring oblivious to the upgrades im stealing your exclamation marks (!!!!)

:yahoo:

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

UKMO T+144 is a shocker a good one of that as I said easterlies dropped and them for to reamerge is not uncommon / unheard of. Easterly back on if this is right. 

31CA00E6-4D04-4B2E-AACB-BAE5FFE089B8.thumb.jpeg.eb03db45dc434abf375036287eb4fb28.jpeg

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

Further out at 192 cold uppers advancing more rapidly through Poland than 18z would have us believe:

gfsnh-1-192.png

Edited by kumquat
wrong image doh
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
11 minutes ago, kumquat said:

gfs 144 and S Murr vertical waa very much in play

gfsnh-0-144.png

Confused.com springs to mind looking at that chart GFS doesn’t know what to do! Interesting how the models have recently been in extending +ve heights to the north. Azores ridge could be quite influential here for the good.

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

with every run that holds that line, reinforcements of colder air sneak in from the east. Of course the near term Ely won't deliver much at all, but the set-up is good.

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Signs of life!!!!

ukmo resusitates coldies hopes!!!!

You couldnt make it up!!

Ps shaky seeing as your probably snoring oblivious to the upgrades im stealing your exclamation marks (!!!!)

:yahoo:

Morning NWS

that was a pleasant shock to wake up to !! Where did that come from? Do u expect GFS and ECM to follow suit ??

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

:cold: :yahoo:

EC946658-5CAF-4C22-BB0C-EC842F42CD6E.thumb.png.19290647187ccb62b0453051c6365869.pngE114C68D-DDBF-40E7-B82C-04B7BEF3ACEC.thumb.png.0b5e9a1909e64ee21381f96d8413b1ec.png

Notice the first signs of blue now across the Easterly & lower 850s...

minus 6- .....

62299984-BCF3-49BF-882B-5AD33C6461AC.thumb.png.9263777b0e2ad7b393e92b5d52c5d823.png

S

Quite amazing do u expect this colder trend to continue throughout the model output Steve?

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

:cold: :yahoo:

EC946658-5CAF-4C22-BB0C-EC842F42CD6E.thumb.png.19290647187ccb62b0453051c6365869.pngE114C68D-DDBF-40E7-B82C-04B7BEF3ACEC.thumb.png.0b5e9a1909e64ee21381f96d8413b1ec.png

Notice the first signs of blue now across the Easterly & lower 850s...

minus 6- .....

62299984-BCF3-49BF-882B-5AD33C6461AC.thumb.png.9263777b0e2ad7b393e92b5d52c5d823.png

S

Haha Steve i think thats the 1st time ive seen you use the :yahoo: emotions-

Shakys going to stalk you today :D

PS EC better play ball this morning!!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
25 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Morning NWS

that was a pleasant shock to wake up to !! Where did that come from? Do u expect GFS and ECM to follow suit ??

I'm still in shock at the ukmo this morning :)

TBH I dont have a clue how EC will play out- 

Just got to hope its flipped to a colder setup like ukmo :)

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