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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Quick Tropospheric Response

    In that case....

    EADC7BB2-0898-43A2-8379-DD9BE5C31621.thumb.jpeg.599f2e44a39f748d276773a8e48e749a.jpeg

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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes it must have been practically instant, and so was the 2013 Jan one - 6th Jan SSW, Jan teens - cold spell arrives.

    The 2013 SSW was spotted well well out by the Metoffice...back in the middle of December 2012 the Metoffice were briefing agencies about the January cold. I know this because a local council worker (gritting) told me they had been briefed. It arrived bang on cue.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Image result for image of an audi quattro in the air

    I think GP should send the missile as this is what happened last time I sent one to nuke the Trop

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    Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
    Just now, Glacier Point said:

    Keep an  eye on that flattish anomalous ridge in the central Pacific. GEFS and GFS both moving it eastwards through day 9 - sure sign of evolution in the MJO. The ideal for subsequent amplification is for this ridge to weaken and a second ridge to develop in the North Pacific towards the Aleutians.

    Many reasons to be positive for cold going into the final third of the month.

    Short but sweet! Cheers GP! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Where did all them little snow symbols all go?:sorry:

    graphe_ens3-2.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    The 2013 SSW was spotted well well out by the Metoffice...back in the middle of December 2012 the Metoffice were briefing agencies about the January cold. I know this because a local council worker (gritting) told me they had been briefed. It arrived bang on cue.

    Yes, I remember well - I told people it was coming, but maybe if this starts getting modelled consistently and on their own output, they will mention something for February, don't forget that wording has been there for a while now, it might be out of date and due an update.

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    Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and/or snow in Winter and Thunderstorms any time of the year.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
    3 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    Keep an  eye on that flattish anomalous ridge in the central Pacific. GEFS and GFS both moving it eastwards through day 9 - sure sign of evolution in the MJO. The ideal for subsequent amplification is for this ridge to weaken and a second ridge to develop in the North Pacific towards the Aleutians.

    Many reasons to be positive for cold going into the final third of the month.

    Can Ian Pennell pull it out the bag again? Pretty sure he is going for a decent cold spell later this month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    4 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Where did all them little snow symbols all go?:sorry:

    graphe_ens3-2.gif

    Here :cold-emoji:

    Diagramme GEFS

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

    Here :cold-emoji:

    Diagramme GEFS

    45% snow risk with +3 uppers...

    I know the UK often seems to defy weather physics but still...

    Nice job :p

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Here :cold-emoji:

    Diagramme GEFS

    Where is that Ens from? I'm moving there!!!:rofl::D

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Another good one for you, Western Alps near Cuneo Italy.:whistling:

    graphe_ens3.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow or Heat
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
    1 minute ago, snowray said:

    Where is that Ens from? I'm moving there!!!:rofl::D

    Northeast of Iceland :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Thats the real reason we don't get much snow in the UK, Altitude, most places where people live are at or near sea level.

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Getting better

    13F7EAAD-2FEE-4483-8C52-F69DB56034B2.thumb.gif.e87962afa113c5b0a2fbef6a17c904f6.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    Just now, karlos1983 said:

    Getting better

    13F7EAAD-2FEE-4483-8C52-F69DB56034B2.thumb.gif.e87962afa113c5b0a2fbef6a17c904f6.gif

    Thing is we keep losing the near term snow symbols but maintain the ones in the D7/8 plus time frame, in other words FI. Ohhh well.:nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    14 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Where is that Ens from? I'm moving there!!!:rofl::D

    Pyrenees   1576m who needs uppers?

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, snowray said:

    Thing is we keep losing the near term snow symbols but maintain the ones in the D7/8 plus time frame, in other words FI. Ohhh well.:nonono:

    We need to forget next week delivering snow imo and look further ahead. 144 onwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and/or snow in Winter and Thunderstorms any time of the year.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
    8 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Thats the real reason we don't get much snow in the UK, Altitude, most places where people live are at or near sea level.

    They can get tons of snow at sea level in New York City, and its a lot further south than the UK. Its where the UK is located thats the problem, not solely altitude.

    Edited by Frost HoIIow
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex
  • Location: Near Southend, Essex
    10 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Thats the real reason we don't get much snow in the UK, Altitude, most places where people live are at or near sea level.

    The reason is the Atlantic and the weather predominantly coming from the West.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    Just now, karlos1983 said:

    We need to forget next week delivering snow imo and look further ahead. 144 onwards.

    Ohh I'm fully away of that Karlos.

    Maybe The almighty ECM will be the "on form" model this evening? Come on ECM, give us your best effort! :laugh:

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    Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
    7 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

    12z ECM coming out soon, I'm sure we will see a complete turn around to a strong easterly. 

    Another essential run pahahahahahaa!!!

    I'll be watching that GFS trend closely....

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    16 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

    They can get tons of snow at sea level in New York City, and its a lot further south than the UK. Its where the UK is located thats the problem, not solely altitude.

    True, but I'm just making a comparison nearer to home, if we had the plunge of cold air that the USA gets every years I can assure you that it would snow in the UK alright, even at below sea level. -20/-24c uppers around New York remember.

    Its just that we would get a lot more in the way of snow events from cold zonality for example, and marginal events would be much less marginal if there was more higher ground, even 100m can make a big difference. Steve M has talked about this before, thats why he's moved to the Kent Alps at about 150m asl from where he lived before at sea level. 

    Don't get my wrong, I'd much prefer the NYC style cold plunges and the PV sitting over us, but they are after all very rare in our neck of the woods, small Island surrounded be sea or whatever the scenario.

    gfsna-0-6.png

    gfsna-1-6.png

    Edited by snowray
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