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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
10 minutes ago, TEITS said:

If im going to have the Tut taken out of me then I won't bother.

Suffice to say the mistake everyone is making is they are ignoring the fact the UKMO at +144 is very different to every model at that timeframe. The +144 like last night is a text book classic of an impending 1980s type E,ly. Just wait and watch how the high to the N will extend SW with its associated cold pool whilst at the same time any atlantic intrusion heads SE. The date of arrival for a classic 1980s E,ly is around 15th Jan!

FWIW I'd like to see please

Edited by ribster
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

It's my birthday on the 15th and all I've ever wanted is a chunk of the Polar Vortex:

gfs-0-252.png?6

Uppers below -4 in that so you'd think snow for some particularly with altitude.

I've been on this earth nearly 57 years and the number of years I've had snow lying on my birthday - 3 or 4 at most.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

Trying to keep my focus on the reasonably forecastable future and it is quite encouraging to see that the three models which allow us to see out to +168h still have a ridge of some sort in place over Scandiniavia or the Baltic generally:

ECM     image.thumb.gif.c4c49077e7d5657776677ce981b32d17.gif

GFS      image.thumb.png.cfe36847e2466952731cdc6929d2b92b.png

GEM     image.thumb.png.d20b4c8927010962f1c037e9ecdfeb86.png

The UKMO at +144h also shows that the ridge is still hanging about:

UKMOimage.thumb.gif.8e73365620555238fe8dd5d659011cad.gif

The ECM appears to be the weakest of the three but at least they all agree that the Atlantic could remain blocked out for another seven days, possibly longer.  This might allow for subtle changes in the position of the ridge to allow colder air to move our way from time to time but at the very least it's keeping things on the cold, more settled side.  This is much preferred, by me anyway, to windy, wet and/or stormy conditions which we have had enough of already this winter in these regions far to the west.....where dragons still exist by the way.  :)

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning.

The Forecast has ( & still is ) the original GEM / ECM blend from day 1 with a possible slightly more SE flow.

This is one of the 06z ENS which still feels about right.

D0D6D2C1-58B7-4FB7-8015-D544FAC7E129.thumb.png.31de25662e3de0c5d098158ab02930c4.png

 

 

Something along these lines ?

what sort of time frame was you thinking ?

619EF30A-8197-4B1B-9BE5-079EC40A8A7B.png

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Posted
  • Location: (Previously Mitcham) North End, Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Warm sunny days with the odd cloud.
  • Location: (Previously Mitcham) North End, Portsmouth
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning.

The Forecast has ( & still is ) the original GEM / ECM blend from day 1 with a possible slightly more SE flow.

This is one of the 06z ENS which still feels about right.

D0D6D2C1-58B7-4FB7-8015-D544FAC7E129.thumb.png.31de25662e3de0c5d098158ab02930c4.png

 

 

Hello Steve. Thanks for posting. Just a quick question from me. What are the 850s temps for that timeframe please? I only ask as the best falls in recent history barring 2010, for my area (Portsmouth) have come from a windflow coming off of a frigid continent. And would the continent have cooled enough in time in your opinion?

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10 minutes ago, fat chad said:

Hello Steve. Thanks for posting. Just a quick question from me. What are the 850s temps for that timeframe please? I only ask as the best falls in recent history barring 2010, for my area (Portsmouth) have come from a windflow coming off of a frigid continent. And would the continent have cooled enough in time in your opinion?

Will do you one in my break later

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

STEVE O!!!STEVE O!!!STEVE O!!YESS!!YOUR BACK AND ABOUT TIME!!ARPEGE STILL HOLDS THAT HIGH IN A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVOURABLE POSITION THAN GFS SO DEW POINTS ARE FREEZING OUT TO 72 HOURS!!

PTB 2 similar @72–

weather toad that’s to early in the run

timeframe ~156

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
48 minutes ago, TEITS said:

If im going to have the Tut taken out of me then I won't bother.

Suffice to say the mistake everyone is making is they are ignoring the fact the UKMO at +144 is very different to every model at that timeframe. The +144 like last night is a text book classic of an impending 1980s type E,ly. Just wait and watch how the high to the N will extend SW with its associated cold pool whilst at the same time any atlantic intrusion heads SE. The date of arrival for a classic 1980s E,ly is around 15th Jan!

As I read it, it looks like there's differences over the Arctic and Siberia on the UKMO relative to the ECM/GFS at 120 hours. 2 areas of low heights over Siberia which UKMO is slower at merging than the other 2 models - which results in a cold pool staying further West across Russia on the UKMO - which then makes the higher heights over Scandi more stubborn to shift.  Either solution could be correct, but it just highlights again that no one should take anything past t96-120 as gospel right now as the differences over Russia at t96-120 could result in major changes for the weather the UK experiences. 

I'd argue that it also shows that in a blocking scenario, 'downstream patterns' can be important - as well as the upstream flow out of the US/Canada.

Edited by beng
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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

There are a number of developing dynamics that are shouting a quick change in modeling.

Some very interesting synoptics rearing.

Going to await 12z suites before further divulge/analysis.

I look forwards to your own analysis teits.

See you all for 12z...

Another crucial set of runs coming up later this afternoon then ;) 

Is it bad that I’d prefer a NW incursion to a Easterly? 

Models are still up in the air between cooler weather and mild weather imo

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
36 minutes ago, shaky said:

STEVE O!!!STEVE O!!!STEVE O!!YESS!!YOUR BACK AND ABOUT TIME!!ARPEGE STILL HOLDS THAT HIGH IN A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVOURABLE POSITION THAN GFS SO DEW POINTS ARE FREEZING OUT TO 72 HOURS!!

have you got posters of certain members on your bedroom wall or something Shaky?....calm down old bean, or you'll do yourself a mischief!....lol

the overnight runs show a chilly few days are in the offing with a few showers particularly from NE & eastern regions with a weakening band of wintry mix guff petering out as it moves south tomorrow....but apart from that relatively settled until midweek.......a bit IMBY, but after the huge amount of rain we've had the past 2 weeks here, I'll take that....after wednesday?....who knows, it's all a bit up in the air (no pun intented)

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
46 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning.

The Forecast has ( & still is ) the original GEM / ECM blend from day 1 with a possible slightly more SE flow.

This is one of the 06z ENS which still feels about right.

D0D6D2C1-58B7-4FB7-8015-D544FAC7E129.thumb.png.31de25662e3de0c5d098158ab02930c4.png

 

 

Which ECM and GEM are you talking about Steve? 

This ECM

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.b24c9552915d51841bcdf75e9c66d233.gif

Or this GEM

gem-0-144.thumb.png.24fb451d7572a477b066df18cd5ebaec.png

?? 

The initial easterly (post this weekend) that you were chasing is goosed. Simple as. No amount of plucking GEFS ensembles out of thin air will change that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
Just now, CreweCold said:

Which ECM and GEM are you talking about Steve? 

This ECM

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.b24c9552915d51841bcdf75e9c66d233.gif

Or this GEM

gem-0-144.thumb.png.24fb451d7572a477b066df18cd5ebaec.png

?? 

The initial easterly (post this weekend) that you were chasing is goosed. Simple as. No amount of plucking GEFS ensembles out of thin air will change that. 

Yes, i was just about to post something similar. There is no point sugar coating things, the easterly that was offered a few days ago, no longer is. The cold is simply not there, not to say that we won't get more opportunities in the future, but this is looking like nothing more than a few chilly days. Posts like that can therefore maybe be a bit misleading to newer members.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Just for clarity, here are a couple of ECM charts for the 0z and 12z a couple of days back

ECH1-216.thumb.gif.a5931b41f9947a18e74666526d0a7c91.gif

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.12715e7b776b7024aa875820ba82f8d7.gif

It was quite clear in its notion of advecting cold uppers across the UK and holding Canadian PV lobe further west. 

Both the GEM and ECM were showing nirvana charts that were very similar so I've no idea how the current projections can be a blend of the two. What we have got is an ECM GFS blend which was always likely and which I was at pains to point out, was probably not sufficient to get the weather us cold weather lovers crave to our shores. 

Edited by CreweCold
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26 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Which ECM and GEM are you talking about Steve? 

This ECM

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.b24c9552915d51841bcdf75e9c66d233.gif

Or this GEM

gem-0-144.thumb.png.24fb451d7572a477b066df18cd5ebaec.png

?? 

The initial easterly (post this weekend) that you were chasing is goosed. Simple as. No amount of plucking GEFS ensembles out of thin air will change that. 

No sorry should have been clear the runs from 2 days ago ^^ that look like my image

ECM Was discounted today just like about a week ago when it was deemed to be an outlier

S

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Why this cold spell being written off now?? It’s turning colder soon and the met talking about severe frosts and the threat of snow next week with PERHAPS milder weather into parts of the WEST later.

 

I wouldn’t go writing off any cold spell yet and the ukmo 144 timeframe showed bags of potential .fronts stalling against a cold block usually provide plenty of snow for some .

Watch this space ....

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No sorry should have been clear the runs from 2 days ago ^^ that look like my image

ECM Was discounted today just like about a week ago when it was deemed to be an outlier

S

Well there's one thing about it Steve, this situation highlights perfectly why I'd rather take my chance with some Atlantic sector heights rather than chase an easterly! 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

ECM was having an off morning clearly from about D6-7 onward. 

5a4f731bb4274_ensemble-tt6-londonfriday.thumb.gif.50630b9e835ef4f2bbc796236de2c1a4.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

why I'd rather take my chance with some Atlantic sector heights rather than chase an easterly! 

You don't have a choice in the matter, the weather will do what the weather will do :D

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Why this cold spell being written off now?? It’s turning colder soon and the met talking about severe frosts and the threat of snow next week with PERHAPS milder weather into parts of the WEST later.

 

I wouldn’t go writing off any cold spell yet and the ukmo 144 timeframe showed bags of potential .fronts stalling against a cold block usually provide plenty of snow for some .

Watch this space ....

You can be fairly certain the high will sink southeast and the cold spell will end before any deep cold from Siberia /Scandinavia arrives 

Edited by ArHu3
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