Model output discussion - into 2018

[ArHu3]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I would like to see the cold block at least put up a decent fight, the Ecm 00z just blows it apart with ease. I still think next week could be interesting if the block holds its ground and the atlantic struggles to make inroads.as the ukmo suggests.

The cold has been canceled, just 1 member left 

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

TEN DAYS OUT KEV !!!

at the risk of repeating myself ................

the ecm ens mean remains the best tool in this type of circumstance as its neither over progressive or under progressive.  A check on the spreads against this mean would have consistently told you that the Atlantic was going over the blocking. It would also have told you that the uppers were not going to be low enough to bring convectively snowfall from any easterly flow.  Before the Icelandic clusters were available, I would have posted the above days ago. Yet they didn't point in this direction. I'm going back to tried and tested methods now !!!!

We know what your saying is absolutely on the money Blue but it does beg the question why have an operational run on public view if it is going to be so out of kilter with its ens and spreads in forecasting situations such as a possible change from mild wet to an easterly based outlook. 

[West is Best]

Or just stick to GFS?  

[ArHu3]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

We know what your saying is absolutely on the money Blue but it does beg the question why have an operational run on public view if it is going to be so out of kilter with its ens and spreads in forecasting situations such as a possible change from mild wet to an easterly based outlook. 

The operational is the free teaser, they want you to pay for the full package 

[mulzy]

Yep - nothing of note from the extended eps. - classic +NAO signal.

Edited January 5, 2018 by mulzy

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

TEN DAYS OUT KEV !!!

at the risk of repeating myself ................

the ecm ens mean remains the best tool in this type of circumstance as its neither over progressive or under progressive.  A check on the spreads against this mean would have consistently told you that the Atlantic was going over the blocking. It would also have told you that the uppers were not going to be low enough to bring convectively snowfall from any easterly flow.  Before the Icelandic clusters were available, I would have posted the above days ago. Yet they didn't point in this direction. I'm going back to tried and tested methods now !!!!

But the mean has shifted and now broadly backs the op in te 6-10d range.

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yep - nothing of note from the extended eps. - classic +NAO signal.

Plenty of mild, wet and windy weather on the way if that's right with low pressure generally to the NW and high pressure to the SW / S / SE..some cold zonality at times though I would think with the jet occasionally digging further south as the pattern ebbs and flows.

Edited January 5, 2018 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yep - nothing of note from the extended eps. - classic +NAO signal.

Not even a jet digging south?

[mulzy]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not even a jet digging south?

Last night's set hinted at such but not this morning's set...

Edited January 5, 2018 by mulzy

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But the mean has shifted and now broadly backs the op in te 6-10d range.

Nope 

[frosty ground]

13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yep - nothing of note from the extended eps. - classic +NAO signal.

O no the Extended EPS have changed again, is almost like they change day to day like all the other extended models and ensembles forecast.,

[Jason T]

I will just say Morning and leave the good out. Anyway it is Friday and we still have some wintry stuff this weekend. Whilst we all await for today's runs here is a link for all models in postage stamp NH, Probably most already have but for those that do not it is very helpful.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=7&ech=42&size=1

 

 

[karyo]

1 minute ago, Jason T said:

I will just say Morning and leave the good out. Anyway it is Friday and we still have some wintry stuff this weekend. Whilst we all await for today's runs here is a link for all models in postage stamp NH, Probably most already have but for those that do not it is very helpful.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=7&ech=42&size=1

 

 

Really? Where? Unless you mean a bit of frost and a cold wind.

[karlos1983]

Just remember folks, before this attempt at an easterly, the outlook was very bleak indeed with no sign of cold on the horizon!  So although we may see a more mobile period of weather again, (after a significant weekend cool down) We could very well be sitting here in a weeks time eying the next bout of possible cold weather. Who knows , it might even verify next time 

good opportunity to recharge the old model watching batteries me thinks! Unless we get an historical reversal in the output and I’ll be back quicker than a moaning football fan when your team wins again.

[seabreeze86]

7 minutes ago, karyo said:

Really? Where? Unless you mean a bit of frost and a cold wind.

Snow showers forecast in North East England and Scotland nothing to get excited about but the chance none the less.

Really has been a strange few days of model watching don't think we seen the last of the swings yet but deep cold remains out of reach for the time being IMO

[MR EXTREMES]

48 to 78 hr easterly well what complete climb down ECM and gem.

Ukmo is definitely the model I will be watching more closely from now on.

I've definitely learned a massive lesson.

In 2009 before the famous cold spell it was the Azores that built into the mid Atlantic and started a chain of events, 

This has been an extremely rare feature since.

The models show now worse than ever charts.

But fingers crossed for a real pattern change around mid month maybe were get lucky in February maybe start of march.

But seriously seriously deflated.

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, Nicholas B said:

Yes but easy to forget that for our neck of the woods if we were a dice 1-5 would be mild and 6 would be cold so always more chance of calling mild correct, synoptics would quite likely look different at t0 to whenever the model's' called it 

My take on this is that from three dice we need to hit of score of 16 or more and we spend a lot of time getting excited when the first die comes up with 4 or more to give us a chance.

So we are in for a cold blip for a couple of days around the 7th. Pretty sure Steve Murr was suggesting this about 10 days ago.

Personally I'll get excited when two of the big three show potential as long as one of them is GFS.

Winter is no busted flush though. I'm expecting to see a 6 come in around the 10th followed by another one on the 11th. Then we really are in with a 50/50 chance!

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended looks quite unsettled with another spell of strong winds and heavy rain possible

[pureasthedriven]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks quite unsettled with another spell of strong winds and heavy rain possible

Joyful. Absolutely contemptible out there this morning yet again. Never mind cold. Any chance of dry??

[kev238]

There is no doubt ECM and GEm got in wrong - lots of praise about how consistent the latter was but that's no good when it's consistently wrong.

The GFS was also way off but there was far too much wishing for the ECM/GEM to be correct. 

Personally , I was enjoying the cold westerly driven weather we had been experiencing and consider this interlude to be somewhat tiresome. Hopefully some active weather with a NW/SE jet resuming . What I fear is shaping up though is a milder second half of January with the more traditional SW/NE jet and a block to the east merely preventing anything interesting from occurring over us. 

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

TEN DAYS OUT KEV !!!

at the risk of repeating myself ................

the ecm ens mean remains the best tool in this type of circumstance as its neither over progressive or under progressive.  A check on the spreads against this mean would have consistently told you that the Atlantic was going over the blocking. It would also have told you that the uppers were not going to be low enough to bring convectively snowfall from any easterly flow.  Before the Icelandic clusters were available, I would have posted the above days ago. Yet they didn't point in this direction. I'm going back to tried and tested methods now !!!!

This is what the 00Z mean chart has had for 11th Jan:

        

At T216 and T192, I'd say it certainly looked like energy was going to go under. So a forecast at that time would not have been in line with what the mean chart is showing now. The T240 was the most like today.

Corresponding clusters:

      

The T240 clusters, accordingly, cast significant doubt over whether a Scandi High would get established. T216 / T192 clusters looked far more likely. T168 started to see the Atlantic pushing in more. Today's clusters not out yet of course.

To me, the mean was a fair reflection of the clusters - maybe the slightly different angles between Meteociel and Brunnur cause a little confusion, but I think the trends were still evident.

So I think - actually - the ECM ensembles did go off track for a while (if this is to be the final outcome) - both on the mean and the clusters. A shame!! They had done so well with the North Atlantic ridging from a long way out. Perhaps Scandi heights is the ECM's new weakness, considering it's mini-fail last January too.

 

Edited January 5, 2018 by Man With Beard

[Nick123]

Right. I am taking a break from here. If for nothing else other than my sanity. (Watch the models now flip to snowmageddon) I love this forum and I am in awe of some of the people in here with their vast knowledge of the weather and some of the posts this season have just been amazing. Thanks for the ride, everyone! See you all soon

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

 Never mind cold. Any chance of dry??

This weekend and early next week looks dry or at least drier as high pressure builds in with some welcome sunshine and frosty nights. 

Edited January 5, 2018 by Frosty.

[pureasthedriven]

Just now, Frosty. said:

This weekend and early next week looks dry or at least drier as high pressure builds in with some welcome sunshine and some frosty nights. 

Thanks Frosty. I think there was an element of exasperation in my message! Cold rain (yet again this season) to look forward to here near Gatwick over the weekend before it all stars to look more mobile after the briefest of respites. 

[stodge]

Morning all

Oh dear, it's all doom and gloom here this morning, isn't it ? We aren't even half way through winter and you'd think we'll never see a frost let alone a flake of snow again.

It's not a question of "learning lessons" and being all "I'm not believing it until every model agrees at T+3" - fine, but it'll be a grumpy old place if we all thought like that. It's chaotic science at best looking 6-10 days out - the Ens are helpful because there are more attempts to get it right - think infinite number of monkeys and Hamlet.

Anyway, before the Mods throw me off for hesitation, obfuscation and obstruction, my take on where we are this morning looking forward:

ECM goes for a full Atlantic breakthrough and a serious old storm at T+240 but we can probably ignore that. Neither GFS 00Z OP nor GEM bring the Atlantic through in strength and indeed the HP rallies later next week so could be quite a quiet, chilly spell for southern and eastern parts in particular.

The other observation is the continued negative tilt in the trough going forward so it's less a case of positive tilt and blowtorch SW'lies than back to square one with the jet running over or just to the south so while I wouldn't call it "cold zonality", the periods of PM air are and would be noticeable but not what most want.

UKMO at T+144 looks worrying as the Azores HP is coming in and the trough is tilting positive but we'll see and I also note the GFS 00Z OP scrubs the PV out of NE Canada by the end of FI and I wonder if that could be the next direction of travel in 10-14 days or so. Until then, after our brief flirtation with something colder and drier we have to accept that in the words of the song "all we can do is just sit and wait".

There's plenty to look at and the medium term is far from resolved this morning.