Model output discussion - into 2018

[Banbury]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS6Z is a bust -

Far too much energy in the old Atlantic- esp the northern arm!! Looks very wet after a couple of days of an easterly waft..

I wouldn’t be too sure there is a lot of cold heading into the U.K. on that NWly

Then gets shunted out of the way by the HP

Edited December 31, 2017 by Banbury

[nick sussex]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL..

I just posted about how its taking an age longer to sink the colder uppers south next weekend-

The pseudo easterly isn't going to be sustained, its a bit part actor.

The GFS 06hrs run was better over the USA that's why you see the troughing trying to disrupt with that shortwave. We don't get that ejecting se but its a start.

I think we have to call time on prospects for any decent easterly this early, it will be colder but the troughing to the west will try and move in , its about getting the trough disruption at that point.

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

I wouldn’t be too sure there is a lot of cold heading into the U.K. on that NWly

Its poor Banbury.

The azores high is ridging in and the jets going North...

[markw2680]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Nick im sure you'll agree?!..

Id rather be viewing a weak diluted easterly incursion 7+days out.

As a vigorous beast will only be watered down!..

And exeter-met- are shouting this one on.

And the signal is eye-opening!

Im looking for gain from midweek onward-via output on this one.

I always enjoy posts your it’s even though I do get a bit confused but I get there in the end lol. Keep up the good work mate ?

Edited December 31, 2017 by markw2680
Mistake

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its poor Banbury.

The azores high is ridging in and the jets going North...

Just edited but that’s way into FI

[SMU]

Don’t worry about the FI part of 06z look at the air on the 144-192 part using the Theta E charts shows a better flow

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Just edited but that’s way into FI

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Don’t worry about the FI part of 06z look at the air on the 144-192 part using the Theta E charts shows a better flow

Iv'e already dismissed it in FI steve

 

[Banbury]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

No worries

I'm not suggesting 6z is correct- just commenting on it, and its crap lol.

The Op is .......but as always we need to see just how much support there is in the ENS

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its poor Banbury.

The azores high is ridging in and the jets going North...

It isn’t poor near time, and unless you are looking for an easterly sub zero lock out for weeks.....which just isn’t and wasn’t likely at all.  However, it will be a wintry period of 5-7 days and I reckon more wintry than some may think.  

 

BFTP

Edited December 31, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

John, I think you really are a bit of a latent coldie. Get yourself down to Spec Savers, they are doing a great offer for dear old folk ! All the best from Austria.

 C

Two ops this coming year might help both cataracts and cornea issues, until then not much hope of reading the 168h Met O chart, but I doubt it verifies very often so not a major issue.

Happy New Year to you too, 17 days to Wengen.

 

[northwestsnow]

OK so we get a cold PM attack in FI -

Looks very January 1984

 

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

You can see from the EPS T850s mean, that the -4 to -6C temperatures gradient is further south (in means) compared to the deterministic

T+168

Det. EPS mean

T+198

det. EPS mean

 

Yes it goes off on one from the 4th and then never recovers fully.

[JBMWeatherForever]

What we are currently seeing is how many a good easterly has been shown at five or so days out. Plenty of time for this story to be confirmed as a prolonged spell of cold from the east. Looks like a classic battleground scenario with trough disruption after the initial North Easterly, with a full on easterly being set up after that. That's where I would put my money now!

[winterof79]

20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The pseudo easterly isn't going to be sustained, its a bit part actor.

The GFS 06hrs run was better over the USA that's why you see the troughing trying to disrupt with that shortwave. We don't get that ejecting se but its a start.

I think we have to call time on prospects for any decent easterly this YEAR, it will be colder but the troughing to the west will try and move in , its about getting the trough disruption at that point.

 

Edited for you Nick

[Day 10]

Not posted many charts for a while as didn't think it worth it from a cold setup perspective, however I am gaining interest in what is happening again. Had a few near misses here so far regards to snow so still searching.

So upto 144 we have a trend of some form of blocking developing to our North, as some have already mentioned the UKMO being the pick of the bunch. A nice looking setup and one which I feel has good scope to upgrade as we go along. Let's see how things evolve, another interesting period coming up.

Wouldn't it be nice to have a proper cold spell and lying snow for all.

Edited December 31, 2017 by Day 10

[johnholmes]

This output is, as far as I can recall, never quoted in here, UK Met Fax charts, not the usual outputs that do get comments but their furthest outputs.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#UKmet-prognosis-00z

click on T+144 and scroll down for their latest outputs for 500 mb and the surface, currently the 00z goes out to Saturday 6 January 00 z

[nick sussex]

I think we’re looking at around day ten as being the possible pivotal moment in terms of colder prospects for the UK leading into January.

The models are generally agreed on the overall pattern with the short easterly then the trough trying to move in from the west .

The energy distribution at that point will determine what happens.

If more energy heads se then you’re likely to see the high to the ne extend a ridge further west.

More energy over the top and you’ll end up with the trough winning the battle.

In these situations models at longer range hardly ever get the balancing act of energies correct.

The key thing though is the high to the ne is orientated favourably , that’s why it’s important to get a ridge extending towards the Svalbard region , this stops the jet from running over the top.

And of course our all important tilt to the troughing which signifies what the trough might do in terms of energy.

Overall an interesting period coming up. Hopefully things can fall kindly to deliver what most people would like to see. 

[DIS1970]

30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 Not sure what has yet existed to go 'pear shaped' .

we seem to be getting a handle on how the ridging will interact with the various players but detail still fairly sketchy. beyond day 8 and the Atlantic still favoured but is that into Europe or scandi or west of scandi ???

Sorry, for that quote , it's just that i am recovering from a brain tumour, so my memory and typing speed is very poor, so again sorry, i'll try to put in better quality sentences in future.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I think we’re looking at around day ten as being the possible pivotal moment in terms of colder prospects for the UK leading into January.

The models are generally agreed on the overall pattern with the short easterly then the trough trying to move in from the west .

The energy distribution at that point will determine what happens.

If more energy heads se then you’re likely to see the high to the ne extend a ridge further west.

More energy over the top and you’ll end up with the trough winning the battle.

In these situations models at longer range hardly ever get the balancing act of energies correct.

The key thing though is the high to the ne is orientated favourably , that’s why it’s important to get a ridge extending towards the Svalbard region , this stops the jet from running over the top.

And of course our all important tilt to the troughing which signifies what the trough might do in terms of energy.

Overall an interesting period coming up. Hopefully things can fall kindly to deliver what most people would like to see. 

Brilliant post Nick

Plenty of runs between now and next weekend- as a coldie i just worry things never really seem to fall for us these days but as you say, the trough disruption is somethng that will only be sorted much closer to the time ...

[comet]

42 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Nothing to get excited about as this goes pear shaped yet again i'm afraid.

Yes I think most people reading this thread know exactly what you mean. It is very frustrating looking at the abundance of deep cold across the pond while in our locale the models try to eek out some very diluted cold uppers from a shallow surface high to the north/north east. The only saving grace this morning is the ukmo and although its accuracy at the end of its range is suspect it leaves some hope of a east/ north easterly with a bit more bite to it.

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by comet

[nick sussex]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Brilliant post Nick

Plenty of runs between now and next weekend- as a coldie i just worry things never really seem to fall for us these days but as you say, the trough disruption is somethng that will only be sorted much closer to the time ...

Thanks. It’s easy to always expect the worst which is of course generally the norm with UK Cold Synoptics.

Things though can and do go right from time to time .

Let’s hope that’s the case this time .

 

[Banbury]

53 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Nothing to get excited about as this goes pear shaped yet again i'm afraid.

Can you add some meat to the bones of your comment please?  

 

See your reply to J H .

Hope the recovery goes well 

Edited December 31, 2017 by Banbury

[johnholmes]

10 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Sorry, for that quote , it's just that i am recovering from a brain tumour, so my memory and typing speed is very poor, so again sorry, i'll try to put in better quality sentences in future.

You do not need to apologise, best wishes for a complete recovery

[tight isobar]

12 minutes ago, comet said:

Yes I think most people reading this thread know exactly what you mean. It is very frustrating looking at the abundance of deep cold across the pond while in our locale the models try to eek out some very diluted cold uppers from a shallow surface high to the north/north east. The only saving grace this morning is the ukmo and although its accuracy at the end of its range is suspect it leaves some hope of a east/ north easterly with a bit more bite to it.

 

Continental europe has a tendancy to quickly go 'cold/deep cold.(this time of year)

Thats exactly why chewing on modeled upper air temps, and cold pooling at this range is all very much speculative.

The overall signal remains very possitive in terms of potential cold..

And dont be suprised at-all to begin the note of deeper 850s showing up as things progress!!!

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by tight isobar