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Model output discussion - into 2018

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

This is much better 12z vs 18z 

F07F7131-C735-4177-B26E-2A83986A4120.thumb.png.1399486adecf163b1601f1a32b6743ba.pngA0A127F8-1E2F-4067-9FDF-89C05058E999.thumb.png.8efa2581f7e3365fc83352c73bb2b680.png

Both 12??

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Pretty sure mr murr said it would take 3 days for the gfs to catch up with the ecm....just checking and oh thats about now! Shame the ECM downgraded mind....what will be will be but cold it will be just for how long???

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The issue is, although heights are better aligned to our NE (with greater latitude) they are still attached to heights somewhere down towards the Middle East....you can trace it all the way down. This allows the HP to potentially slip quite easily further SE under any pressure from troughing to our NW.

Still, more interesting than the 12z, let's see how it develops further on.

EDIT:

By 162 Heights have fallen around the SE limb of the HP so the above less of an issue. Let's see how the next bit of troughing interacts from the W.

Edited by CreweCold

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Just now, Sweatyman said:

Both 12??

Its the placebo effect.

Wishful thinking.

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Steve wtf are you!!massive upgrade early on in this run!!come back man!!scandi high looks perfectly rounded!!please please upgrade tomorrow!!nothing like pulling it out last minute😎😎

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Much better from the gfs and a poss easterly is still on at 144 hrs,has the gfs swapped genders with the ecm,crazy this.

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Steve wtf are you!!massive upgrade early on in this run!!come back man!!scandi high looks perfectly rounded!!please please upgrade tomorrow!!nothing like pulling it out last minute😎😎

😮

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50 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yes yes yes frosty,people need to wait until the Easterly is in the reliable time frame before writing it off.Which is about 5 days or less when we are talking about an Easterly .The models always struggle in these set ups,because it’s different to the norm.Maybe by this time tomorrow we will know how potent this Easterly is 

Posting those GEFS 12z perturbations show i haven't given up on a much colder extended outlook, it's not dead in the water and we certainly have plenty of  time to see the type of stonking charts we have seen plenty of in the last few days..fingers crossed!:)

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Steve wtf are you!!massive upgrade early on in this run!!come back man!!scandi high looks perfectly rounded!!please please upgrade tomorrow!!nothing like pulling it out last minute😎😎

Oh matron!

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A HUGE upgrade from GFS 18z here clear to see now that’s much more like it! 

12z1E5C09DD-6C1F-475B-A40D-1D79CD4B5F8D.thumb.png.0ad8b48a7ff8d3f545bfeb16b8b2b15a.png v 727EA48F-8E74-4C94-A3EA-E0F6EAB65B03.thumb.png.7c567bc6de96d60208889fef45e984a1.png

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Steve wtf are you!!massive upgrade early on in this run!!come back man!!scandi high looks perfectly rounded!!please please upgrade tomorrow!!nothing like pulling it out last minute😎😎

You really need to look at those last seven words Shaky...:D

But yes GFS 18z much better.

C.S. 

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Need something from the SE of the block running west. This is how you get classic easterly nearly all them have a low/shortwave running under the block from the SE of the block.

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The gfs leading the way, what a great model:D

IMG_0295.PNG

Edited by That ECM

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Just now, That ECM said:

The gfs leading the way, what great model:D

IMG_0295.PNG

It shouldn’t come as a shock runs like this have appeared in GEFS consecutively. :) 

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How on earth this didn’t slide is beyond me...

86841526-8CD4-4C2A-8D4B-F9886DB65A58.thumb.jpeg.2e69cef1a4924e7d9137f4f1bb438bca.jpeg

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Although this is better, its the other shortwave which heads north and attached to the upstream trough that's spoiling this.

More energy needs to go se around T120hrs onwards, still better than the 12hrs but still the block is going to struggle to back westwards.

 

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5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

How on earth this didn’t slide is beyond me...

86841526-8CD4-4C2A-8D4B-F9886DB65A58.thumb.jpeg.2e69cef1a4924e7d9137f4f1bb438bca.jpeg

Oh it shall slide tomorrow you watch😎

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

How on earth this didn’t slide is beyond me...

86841526-8CD4-4C2A-8D4B-F9886DB65A58.thumb.jpeg.2e69cef1a4924e7d9137f4f1bb438bca.jpeg

In reality, I think it will....

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Like i said earlier,block to our NE will be stubborn to shift,yes this is one run but....

i will bank it!:D

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Very good if we can somehow get this to T 12...

Can see the little low cutting SW around the base of the HP which would give the potential for the cold pool to back west if the Atlantic behaves itself and actually sends some jet under the block...

gfsnh-0-186.png?18

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

How on earth this didn’t slide is beyond me...

86841526-8CD4-4C2A-8D4B-F9886DB65A58.thumb.jpeg.2e69cef1a4924e7d9137f4f1bb438bca.jpeg

Because things like that don't happen to us. To be honest I'm thinking that there will be a calm period for east and wetter in the west with no wintry weather except for hills ie Snowdonia, Highlands,lake District. Before a more pronounced high to set up nw of the uk. Let's see if I'm right. It will be against most people's views. I just need snow and cold 

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Dumping coming up here.

gfsnh-0-192_dad8.png

Uppers easily cold enough for a slider.

gfsnh-1-198_qvh1.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Not posted in a while but very intrigued by this evenings GFS. The far reaches of high res suggesting it could be a second bite at the cherry for the slider, if it comes to fruition. Bets on ECM going full blown zonal at midnight? Quite high 😋

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