Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

The issue is, although heights are better aligned to our NE (with greater latitude) they are still attached to heights somewhere down towards the Middle East....you can trace it all the way down. This allows the HP to potentially slip quite easily further SE under any pressure from troughing to our NW.

Still, more interesting than the 12z, let's see how it develops further on.

EDIT:

By 162 Heights have fallen around the SE limb of the HP so the above less of an issue. Let's see how the next bit of troughing interacts from the W.

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Realised and edited accordingly, doh 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Just now, Sweatyman said:

Both 12??

Its the placebo effect.

Wishful thinking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Steve wtf are you!!massive upgrade early on in this run!!come back man!!scandi high looks perfectly rounded!!please please upgrade tomorrow!!nothing like pulling it out last minute??

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Much better from the gfs and a poss easterly is still on at 144 hrs,has the gfs swapped genders with the ecm,crazy this.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Steve wtf are you!!massive upgrade early on in this run!!come back man!!scandi high looks perfectly rounded!!please please upgrade tomorrow!!nothing like pulling it out last minute??

?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
50 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yes yes yes frosty,people need to wait until the Easterly is in the reliable time frame before writing it off.Which is about 5 days or less when we are talking about an Easterly .The models always struggle in these set ups,because it’s different to the norm.Maybe by this time tomorrow we will know how potent this Easterly is 

Posting those GEFS 12z perturbations show i haven't given up on a much colder extended outlook, it's not dead in the water and we certainly have plenty of  time to see the type of stonking charts we have seen plenty of in the last few days..fingers crossed!:)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Steve wtf are you!!massive upgrade early on in this run!!come back man!!scandi high looks perfectly rounded!!please please upgrade tomorrow!!nothing like pulling it out last minute??

Oh matron!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Steve wtf are you!!massive upgrade early on in this run!!come back man!!scandi high looks perfectly rounded!!please please upgrade tomorrow!!nothing like pulling it out last minute??

You really need to look at those last seven words Shaky...:D

But yes GFS 18z much better.

C.S. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Need something from the SE of the block running west. This is how you get classic easterly nearly all them have a low/shortwave running under the block from the SE of the block.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

The gfs leading the way, what a great model:D

IMG_0295.PNG

Edited by That ECM
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Just now, That ECM said:

The gfs leading the way, what great model:D

IMG_0295.PNG

It shouldn’t come as a shock runs like this have appeared in GEFS consecutively. :) 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

How on earth this didn’t slide is beyond me...

86841526-8CD4-4C2A-8D4B-F9886DB65A58.thumb.jpeg.2e69cef1a4924e7d9137f4f1bb438bca.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Although this is better, its the other shortwave which heads north and attached to the upstream trough that's spoiling this.

More energy needs to go se around T120hrs onwards, still better than the 12hrs but still the block is going to struggle to back westwards.

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

How on earth this didn’t slide is beyond me...

86841526-8CD4-4C2A-8D4B-F9886DB65A58.thumb.jpeg.2e69cef1a4924e7d9137f4f1bb438bca.jpeg

In reality, I think it will....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Like i said earlier,block to our NE will be stubborn to shift,yes this is one run but....

i will bank it!:D

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Very good if we can somehow get this to T 12...

Can see the little low cutting SW around the base of the HP which would give the potential for the cold pool to back west if the Atlantic behaves itself and actually sends some jet under the block...

gfsnh-0-186.png?18

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

How on earth this didn’t slide is beyond me...

86841526-8CD4-4C2A-8D4B-F9886DB65A58.thumb.jpeg.2e69cef1a4924e7d9137f4f1bb438bca.jpeg

Because things like that don't happen to us. To be honest I'm thinking that there will be a calm period for east and wetter in the west with no wintry weather except for hills ie Snowdonia, Highlands,lake District. Before a more pronounced high to set up nw of the uk. Let's see if I'm right. It will be against most people's views. I just need snow and cold 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Dumping coming up here.

gfsnh-0-192_dad8.png

Uppers easily cold enough for a slider.

gfsnh-1-198_qvh1.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Not posted in a while but very intrigued by this evenings GFS. The far reaches of high res suggesting it could be a second bite at the cherry for the slider, if it comes to fruition. Bets on ECM going full blown zonal at midnight? Quite high ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

Okay so gfs upgrades on 18z but some said a couple of days ago that gfs is 2days behind Ecm so if that's the case the gfs is just lagging behind and is showing what the ecm did show 2 days ago and will revert to what ecm is showing now in 2 days time??

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

The block is holding

image.thumb.png.b7e446d2c1d13f9681ced4305b431534.png

It's not mild either

image.thumb.png.636224904d0bcedacbcafc869f32e4cc.png

The shape and orientation of the blocking HP is much better on this run, the energy just needs to slip south via trough disruption as is being hinted at.

image.thumb.png.53fd79c0e0642da6af2ce73e9d93a31c.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Huge upgrade?   Well it's interesting to see the gfs swing back a bit but it could go back to where the 12z was on the 00z. Worth seeing how many scandi highs are showing on the ens re trends. 

Are we going to lose the connection of the scandi surface high from the se European high?  the ec 46 is nowhere near showing any sign of winter so would be nice to see a block delvelop somewhere which will aid the cold establishing and hanging around 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...