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Model output discussion - into 2018


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We’ll see how the next few days go...but just to say it all seems a bit too quick for me.  I don’t buy today yet.  4th day in row of zero sunspots, Earth facing Coronal hole and decent solar wind burst to hit on about 8th so I don’t buy the flatter pattern.  Now not saying Beast, but it’s all moving away too quickly.

 

BFTP

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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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12 minutes ago, comet said:

All part of the amplification post t144 that I spoke of in a post earlier today. Strat charts show a split vortex developing right up to the 30mb level out to t 300 ish . I do not think that this is being reflected accurately in the h500 charts and we will see a trend for more amplified runs and a much greater chance of sustaining a potent cold spell for several days.

I can only assume that the strat ridge is the trop imprint from day 4/5 working its way up. Seems to be a two/three  day delay to get to 30 hpa which is still pretty quick!

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38 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Excuse me whilst I pour another whisky ! They’re not all bad but for lovers of crunchy  snow only a few survive the mediocrity!

They’re not like blowtorch sw erlies but generally a bit underwhelming.

I’ve seen worse and sometimes the eps can flip as quickly as the op runs. I think we need to give it a few days, enough time to get more drink supplies in!

Well we had pigs lips earlier

if we don't get crunchy snow then i will settle for this:D

IDShot_540x540.jpg:rofl:

i would prefer crunchy snow though

back to the models:-

there is quiet a few in here looking for a breakdown at such and such +7 days away when the cold snap/poss cold spell hasn't even started yet,stick with in the realms and you will not be dissapointed,the more experienced folk  on here say this time and time again every day,week and every winter and it's like a stuck record,we don't know the outcome "yet"

the block is forecast to be placed over Scandinavia that is a dead cert,how long it last's is still up for debate and will be for some time

when we have a block to our NE it is quiet hard to shift,how many times has the gfs for instance shown to blow the block away past the BI but not doing so and been held west of here

ok the models show a downgrade to some extent but is it right to right it off,we haven't come to that hurdle yet

there are too many people on here that look at the micro-climate and forget about the bigger picture

and if things go t*ts up,then we have plenty of time yet:)

thanks.

P.S i am going to spread the likes around now because there is some very good discussions today:D

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Changes on 18z icon at 60 hours out!!deeper cold cominng in from the north east and getting further south aswell into the continent!!might not come to much but at least its not gone further north!

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This slider high,which is going to happen in the reliable timeframe,will bring an end to a 14 day cold spell in Scotland.Whilst many down south have been buffeted and rained on,Scotland has witnessed calm,benign conditions with snow drifts still prevailing in points as low as 300m   Point being,comments about how mild,wet and windy it has been are rather biased from a southerly viewpoint.Trust me,if you hate the weather in England,come to Scotland,where the weather is seldom mentioned in English media.

 

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2 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

US in the freezer, ghost easterlies from ECM, mid latitude highs alternating with raging zonality, its the same every winter, our winters are stuck in a never ending groundhog day!

Absolutely appalling and if someone mentions the word Slider once more I swear I will...............

Andy

And this man thinks so too:rofl:

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

For fear of jinxing things the GFS is better at T66hrs.

The ridge might get a bit further north, and energy from the trough head a bit further west up the east of Greenland.

Yes I was thinking that but I couldn’t get my head out of the drinks cabinet in time to post it. 

Interesting to see where it goes 

Edited by karlos1983
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18z looking better early on

hope steve can pop in with a little snippet as his insight on this will be missed

helps me anyway with what to look out for

Edited by snowbob
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8 minutes ago, snowbob said:

18z looking better early on

hope steve can pop in with a little snippet as his insight on this will be missed

helps me anyway with what to look out for

no, uppers 4 degrees, want it dry, could still be cold at surface if dry

gfs-1-114.png?18

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This model watching really is a great way wile away the evenings.  We're all about to throw the towel in on this cold spell then the 18z looks to start upgrading the scandi high. Big improvements out to 126.....is this another false dawn or heralding a day of upgrades tomorrow.  Tune in tomorrow to find out!

18z gfsnh-0-126.png?18 12z gfsnh-0-132.png?12

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could be a stonker this, as pointed out orientation of block better but I have my beady eyes to the East, very far East.

The back door springs to mind

but if i keep on looking on this pc 24/7 my other half might show it me:rofl:

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A change upstream here. The GFS phases both arms of the jet and develops that more amplified shortwave running east, this leaches some of the energy away from the trough near the UK.

The phase and pivot on the PV helps to do that.

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