Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

Recommended Posts

What are the chances of 18z showing a better run now😂😂!!sure gona miss steve murr this evening though😔!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Dennis said:

we see a high wave2

Was going to post the wave 2 berlin chart up but it wont let you do it now, yes they aren't bad, it would be feb though now before any SSW would be felt at surface, and that's assuming the SSW models all the way in from now without any put backs and it propagates quickly.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There is some interest from the GEFS 12z in terms of stronger blocking and undercutting with increasingly cold and even snowy conditions next week onwards as an Ely / SEly flow becomes firmly established so things could yet upgrade on the operationals.:)   

8_168_850tmp.png

8_168_2mtmpmax.png

8_192_850tmp.png

8_192_2mtmpmax.png

8_264_2mtmpmax.png

8_264_850tmp.png

8_288_850tmp.png

8_336_850tmp.png

8_336_2mtmpmax.png

8_384_850tmp.png

8_384_2mtmpmax.png

9_216_2mtmpmax.png

9_216_850tmp.png

20_264_2mtmpmax.png

20_264_850tmp.png

20_336_2mtmpmax.png

Yes yes yes frosty,people need to wait until the Easterly is in the reliable time frame before writing it off.Which is about 5 days or less when we are talking about an Easterly .The models always struggle in these set ups,because it’s different to the norm.Maybe by this time tomorrow we will know how potent this Easterly is 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We’ll see how the next few days go...but just to say it all seems a bit too quick for me.  I don’t buy today yet.  4th day in row of zero sunspots, Earth facing Coronal hole and decent solar wind burst to hit on about 8th so I don’t buy the flatter pattern.  Now not saying Beast, but it’s all moving away too quickly.

 

BFTP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, comet said:

All part of the amplification post t144 that I spoke of in a post earlier today. Strat charts show a split vortex developing right up to the 30mb level out to t 300 ish . I do not think that this is being reflected accurately in the h500 charts and we will see a trend for more amplified runs and a much greater chance of sustaining a potent cold spell for several days.

I can only assume that the strat ridge is the trop imprint from day 4/5 working its way up. Seems to be a two/three  day delay to get to 30 hpa which is still pretty quick!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Excuse me whilst I pour another whisky ! They’re not all bad but for lovers of crunchy  snow only a few survive the mediocrity!

They’re not like blowtorch sw erlies but generally a bit underwhelming.

I’ve seen worse and sometimes the eps can flip as quickly as the op runs. I think we need to give it a few days, enough time to get more drink supplies in!

Well we had pigs lips earlier

if we don't get crunchy snow then i will settle for this:D

IDShot_540x540.jpg:rofl:

i would prefer crunchy snow though

back to the models:-

there is quiet a few in here looking for a breakdown at such and such +7 days away when the cold snap/poss cold spell hasn't even started yet,stick with in the realms and you will not be dissapointed,the more experienced folk  on here say this time and time again every day,week and every winter and it's like a stuck record,we don't know the outcome "yet"

the block is forecast to be placed over Scandinavia that is a dead cert,how long it last's is still up for debate and will be for some time

when we have a block to our NE it is quiet hard to shift,how many times has the gfs for instance shown to blow the block away past the BI but not doing so and been held west of here

ok the models show a downgrade to some extent but is it right to right it off,we haven't come to that hurdle yet

there are too many people on here that look at the micro-climate and forget about the bigger picture

and if things go t*ts up,then we have plenty of time yet:)

thanks.

P.S i am going to spread the likes around now because there is some very good discussions today:D

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Changes on 18z icon at 60 hours out!!deeper cold cominng in from the north east and getting further south aswell into the continent!!might not come to much but at least its not gone further north!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This slider high,which is going to happen in the reliable timeframe,will bring an end to a 14 day cold spell in Scotland.Whilst many down south have been buffeted and rained on,Scotland has witnessed calm,benign conditions with snow drifts still prevailing in points as low as 300m   Point being,comments about how mild,wet and windy it has been are rather biased from a southerly viewpoint.Trust me,if you hate the weather in England,come to Scotland,where the weather is seldom mentioned in English media.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For fear of jinxing things the GFS is better at T66hrs.

The ridge might get a bit further north, and energy from the trough head a bit further west up the east of Greenland.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

US in the freezer, ghost easterlies from ECM, mid latitude highs alternating with raging zonality, its the same every winter, our winters are stuck in a never ending groundhog day!

Absolutely appalling and if someone mentions the word Slider once more I swear I will...............

Andy

And this man thinks so too:rofl:

image.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

For fear of jinxing things the GFS is better at T66hrs.

The ridge might get a bit further north, and energy from the trough head a bit further west up the east of Greenland.

Yes I was thinking that but I couldn’t get my head out of the drinks cabinet in time to post it. 

Interesting to see where it goes 

Edited by karlos1983

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

its not good -short lived

78.png

Edited by Dennis

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z looking better early on

hope steve can pop in with a little snippet as his insight on this will be missed

helps me anyway with what to look out for

Edited by snowbob

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The re-curve SW on the eastern flank of the high is there on the 18z where as the 12z sends it SE

gfsnh-0-102.png?18gfsnh-0-108.png?12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting... only small changes but if we could keep getting these adjustments you never know...

IMG_8778.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could be a stonker this, as pointed out orientation of block better but I have my beady eyes to the East, very far East.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmm changes early on on both the icon and gfs!!this aint over yet!!dew points are still sub zero according to the icon at 96 hours for england!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Interesting... only small changes but if we could keep getting these adjustments you never know...

IMG_8778.PNG

It’s that potential link up with arctic heights that’s catching my eye on that chart. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, snowbob said:

18z looking better early on

hope steve can pop in with a little snippet as his insight on this will be missed

helps me anyway with what to look out for

no, uppers 4 degrees, want it dry, could still be cold at surface if dry

gfs-1-114.png?18

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This model watching really is a great way wile away the evenings.  We're all about to throw the towel in on this cold spell then the 18z looks to start upgrading the scandi high. Big improvements out to 126.....is this another false dawn or heralding a day of upgrades tomorrow.  Tune in tomorrow to find out!

18z gfsnh-0-126.png?18 12z gfsnh-0-132.png?12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could be a stonker this, as pointed out orientation of block better but I have my beady eyes to the East, very far East.

The back door springs to mind

but if i keep on looking on this pc 24/7 my other half might show it me:rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A change upstream here. The GFS phases both arms of the jet and develops that more amplified shortwave running east, this leaches some of the energy away from the trough near the UK.

The phase and pivot on the PV helps to do that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is much better 12z vs 18z 

2A5F471C-1019-4DC1-A88A-777088BD2F62.thumb.png.d250be043cead38ca5277a0a0b10169f.pngA0A127F8-1E2F-4067-9FDF-89C05058E999.thumb.png.8efa2581f7e3365fc83352c73bb2b680.png

Edited by karlos1983

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Better aligned more of a southwesterly push to of the very cold air into Eastern Europe.

8233462D-A900-4779-9BDD-BAD2DBF05009.thumb.png.765ee7f3fc2a152bbdc64671e9ffba4a.png4ACFEC97-1D96-4B39-8E8C-2F3750CF3815.thumb.png.0a1985aa9de6e5c2af417f35887de9e9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...