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Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

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There is some interest from the GEFS 12z in terms of stronger blocking and undercutting with increasingly cold and even snowy conditions next week onwards as an Ely / SEly flow becomes firmly established so things could yet upgrade on the operationals.:)   

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Edited by Frosty.

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on a more positive note, i've saved about  £400 by not buying snow tyres!

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37 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Quick question, so hopefully a simple answer....re. 12z GFS, it looks odd T60 - T84 with the mixing out of T850's..... A 10 degree plus rise in the T850's within the Scandi HP  despite only a modicum of change both in positioning and orientation, what's the simple reason for this....inversion?...cheers

The modicum of change is sufficient to change the airmass characteristics and see the rise in temp IMHO

gfs_t850a_eur_11.thumb.png.dbe293df61fdbc14f6c6dd4932952753.pnggfs_t850a_eur_15.thumb.png.a050e2a95309ca084f36f4e2a8fc7449.png

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ens trend on uppers is down on the back of pm incursions - it's not blocked! 

The pig is covered in lipstick at the moment ...............

It’s back to chasing slush with a BBC reporter stuck on a hill espousing the next ice age as driving sleet bears down on the poor soul! :D

I’ve looked at all 50 eps and needed to raid the drinks cabinet after !

 

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2 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Who is ready for a crucial set of 18z GFS runs?!

It would be ironic if it turned it around

Oh I am it can’t get anymore crucial it’s so crucial tonight it is make or break :p the almighty godlike GFS will know the answer our oracle and saviour! Praise be...

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

It’s back to chasing slush with a BBC reporter stuck on a hill espousing the next ice age as driving sleet bears down on the poor soul! :D

I’ve looked at all 50 eps and needed to raid the drinks cabinet after !

 

That dyer?

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its a bit like watching the Football tonight is this... Spurs (ECM) the glory model all singing all dancing V West Ham (GFS) just saying I don't think so pal... COYI

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

The modicum of change is sufficient to change the airmass characteristics and see the rise in temp IMHO

gfs_t850a_eur_11.thumb.png.dbe293df61fdbc14f6c6dd4932952753.pnggfs_t850a_eur_15.thumb.png.a050e2a95309ca084f36f4e2a8fc7449.png

Jeez knocker back posting in this thread, the cold is done for:D only joking knocker, enjoy your posts.

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1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Jeez knocker back posting in this thread, the cold is done for:D only joking knocker, enjoy your posts.

No no it is very much a one off guest appearance. :)

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BBC long range high pressure to north mid week cold coming in from scandi with some snow but also say milder weather trying push right a cross uk at end of week 

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That dyer?

Excuse me whilst I pour another whisky ! They’re not all bad but for lovers of crunchy snow only a few survive the mediocrity!

They’re not like blowtorch sw erlies but generally a bit underwhelming.

I’ve seen worse and sometimes the eps can flip as quickly as the op runs. I think we need to give it a few days, enough time to get more drink supplies in!

Edited by nick sussex

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i say bring back atlantic first next week for new fresh setup - this Scandi High for now isnt working (real coldair in the east is not there) 

Edited by Dennis

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10 minutes ago, knocker said:

The modicum of change is sufficient to change the airmass characteristics and see the rise in temp IMHO

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much obliged :hi:

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3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

BBC long range high pressure to north mid week cold coming in from scandi with some snow but also say milder weather trying push right a cross uk at end of week 

Where can I view this please 

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15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It was obvious what was going to happen on the 144 chart.... 

However the interest for any subsequent development is to the north east (which we can't see) and if the Azores high can link up to the Scandi high.

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Just now, Hull snow said:

Where can I view this please 

BBC weather website .:)

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2 minutes ago, Dennis said:

i say bring back atlantic first next week for new fresh setup - this Scandi High for now isnt working 

Ah the classic wish for a zonal 'reset' - which in reality ends up with 6 weeks of Atlantic dross.🌧️

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Excuse me whilst I pour another whisky ! They’re not all bad but for lovers of crunchy snow only a few survive the mediocrity!

They’re not like blowtorch sw erlies but generally a bit underwhelming.

I’ve seen worse and sometimes the eps can flip as quickly as the op runs. I think we need to give it a few days, enough time to get more drink supplies in!

So there must be some with the slushy wet snow then?

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The 18z gonna turn out a blinder "NOW" for sure...We will be able envisage polar bears walking past our lounge window. It is never easy getting the Cold in, I am sure all will become clearer from more runs over the next few days...

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5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Ah the classic wish for a zonal 'reset' - which in reality ends up with 6 weeks of Atlantic dross.🌧️

i meant for this - it shows a new and better possibility for cold

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Edited by Dennis

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

120 The key is that vertical WAA up towards the pole...

NB : no ones mentioned the Pacific high creeping over the pole in the last few runs...

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All part of the amplification post t144 that I spoke of in a post earlier today. Strat charts show a split vortex developing right up to the 30mb level out to t 300 ish . I do not think that this is being reflected accurately in the h500 charts and we will see a trend for more amplified runs and a much greater chance of sustaining a potent cold spell for several days.

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4 minutes ago, Dennis said:

i meant for this - it shows a new and better possibility for cold

76.png

A long way to go after  that chart before it would deliver although apparently they (SSW's) do deliver more when the PV is strong rather than when we are already blocked.

 

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A long way to go after  that chart would deliver although apparently they (SSW's) do deliver more when the PV is strong rather than when we are already blocked.

we see a high wave2 atm 

756.JPG

Edited by Dennis

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A long way to go after  that chart before it would deliver although apparently they (SSW's) do deliver more when the PV is strong rather than when we are already blocked.

 

 

Yes the trop response is greater when you have  a positive AO.

They did some research on that and I suppose its quite logical. Whether we actually see a major  SSW though is another matter. We live in hope.

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