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Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

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Strangely, the fact that the ec op goes out of spread with its 00z mean output as early as day 6 says that there is plenty of wriggle room on this evolution 

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see some support from the eps later but there is currently little credence to this solution 

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Uppers aren’t cold but is that a possible snow event Tue evening as that front comes in from the West ?

Ireland and n Pennines plus w Scotland but I wouldn’t take it too seriously for the time being 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like the azores high may be moving into Europe at 168-:nonono:

Could be but the low could disrupt - let's see...

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The ECM just killed Bambi.

From hero to public enemy number one!

You can trace the descent of recent runs to the insurance policy that it originally had upstream with the amplifying shortwave which latched onto the PV and helped pull some of the energy away from the north and west. With that gone and the flatter pattern upstream the insurance policy just got ripped to shreds .

Now it’s sinking without trace and the new Bambi hero is the UKMO which is the best of an underwhelming bunch!

Edited by nick sussex

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM just killed Bambi.

From hero to public enemy number one!

You can trace the descent of recent runs to the insurance policy that it originally had upstream with the amplifying shortwave which latched onto the PV and helped pull some of the energy away from the north and west. With that gone and the flatter pattern upstream the insurance policy just got ripped to shreds .

Now it’s sinking without trace and the new Bambi hero is the UKMO which is the best of an underwhelming bunch!

Nice 192 though TBF.

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM just killed Bambi.

From hero to public enemy number one!

You can trace the descent of recent runs to the insurance policy that it originally had upstream with the amplifying shortwave which latched onto the PV and helped pull some of the energy away from the north and west.

Now it’s sinking without trace and the new Bambi hero is the UKMO which is the best of an underwhelming bunch!

It's making a 2nd attempt at a scandi high @192 but postponing a cold spell often leads to complete cancellation 

 

ECH1-192.GIF

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The picture at day 7 reminds me of the mess that the 18z gfs got into yesterday 

i cant make much sense out of this run although it can be seen to be a broad follow on from the 00z but in a pretty progressive fashion 

@feb1991blizzard - one thing the model hasn’t done is promise decent snowfall on its output - the uppers have barely shown low enough to interact with the North Sea, even on its more easterly runs 

Edited by bluearmy

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Scandy high reastablishing at 192

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Nice 192 though TBF.

Whatever! :D

You should know better ! 

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nice 192 though TBF.

The ECM is briliant at being brilliant days 8/9/10...that's one thing I've noticed over the past few years. The thing is if we had had a N'ly or E'ly for every time one was progged at that time frame by the ECM we would be sick to the back teeth of cold/snow by now...

Once again tonight, the ECM gives renewed hope at day 8- but TBH until it gets to within 4/5 days I'm past caring.

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This forum is a like a Shakespearean tragedy.

Just recently there have been calls to end GFS, to euthenize the ECM and now Bambi has been slaughtered!  

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Jma offers support for the extension of low heights towards Denmark at day 6 ............

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Just now, Mucka said:

This forum is a like a Shakespearean tragedy.

Just recently there have been calls to end GFS, to euthenize the ECM and now Bambi has been slaughtered!  

Yes it’s great fun! :D

You need a good sense of humour if you follow the models especially when anything Scandi related comes into view.

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

NAVGEM 12z ( again ) carbon copy of UKMO

old fashioned Easterly 168-180

1B6EC0C4-9B64-416B-9647-28294E10C115.thumb.png.6eeb3f7ea6d5ff8e30430812b0a0188d.png9D9DC083-A7EC-4752-9095-7C4CE461023D.thumb.png.d6287b3407ffb6af5204fc45f2c72c49.pngACD580D4-A99F-4519-8173-D40A6B43A23A.thumb.png.513aeb9595bc5911da8c0255b557fc89.png

Sorry Steve but I just think you are trying to wish this easterly here now.

Looking at the models I think we're struggling to even have a sniff at even a half arsed breakdown.

Missed the bus(again on this one)and I think the models will continue pulling away from anything remotely cold at all.

 

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So much to say, but I'm pretty sure it's all been said regarding the current output!

Lots of modelling to come with this upcoming period. So for now UKMO 144 is my favourite chart of the evening :) I won't post it as I'm sure it's been posted.

happy rollercoastering :0 

 

 

Edited by chris55

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nice 192 though TBF.

Whats nice about that?...trough disruption but not with a negative tilt. 

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The picture at day 7 reminds me of the mess that the 18z gfs got into yesterday 

i cant make much sense out of this run although it can be seen to be a broad follow on from the 00z but in a pretty progressive fashion 

@feb1991blizzard - one thing the model hasn’t done is promise decent snowfall on its output - the uppers have barely shown low enough to interact with the North Sea, even on its more easterly runs 

True - but in a way that's the point I am making - I am no way bigging up the GFS's handling of this episode, I'm just saying there were people suggesting that the cold uppers would come, I just don't know why when the median of all the output was what is now being modelled by the ECM op, why some people expected something to occur practically outside the spread and then shooting people like CC down for suggesting it might not, and also ridicule ensembles - but I always repeat this, unless you have a really good number (like a majority) of members with frigid upper temps as it comes into high res, its more than likely to hit the buffers.

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No wonder we voted for Brexit you just can't trust those euro's:D

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Whats nice about that?...trough disruption but not with a negative tilt. 

It was possible undercut still - look at the elongation, and look to the East, however - it didn't.

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