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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Looks like the azores high may be moving into Europe at 168-:nonono:

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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Looks like the azores high may be moving into Europe at 168-:nonono:

    Could be but the low could disrupt - let's see...

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The ECM just killed Bambi.

    From hero to public enemy number one!

    You can trace the descent of recent runs to the insurance policy that it originally had upstream with the amplifying shortwave which latched onto the PV and helped pull some of the energy away from the north and west. With that gone and the flatter pattern upstream the insurance policy just got ripped to shreds .

    Now it’s sinking without trace and the new Bambi hero is the UKMO which is the best of an underwhelming bunch!

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The ECM just killed Bambi.

    From hero to public enemy number one!

    You can trace the descent of recent runs to the insurance policy that it originally had upstream with the amplifying shortwave which latched onto the PV and helped pull some of the energy away from the north and west. With that gone and the flatter pattern upstream the insurance policy just got ripped to shreds .

    Now it’s sinking without trace and the new Bambi hero is the UKMO which is the best of an underwhelming bunch!

    Nice 192 though TBF.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The ECM just killed Bambi.

    From hero to public enemy number one!

    You can trace the descent of recent runs to the insurance policy that it originally had upstream with the amplifying shortwave which latched onto the PV and helped pull some of the energy away from the north and west.

    Now it’s sinking without trace and the new Bambi hero is the UKMO which is the best of an underwhelming bunch!

    It's making a 2nd attempt at a scandi high @192 but postponing a cold spell often leads to complete cancellation 

     

    ECH1-192.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The picture at day 7 reminds me of the mess that the 18z gfs got into yesterday 

    i cant make much sense out of this run although it can be seen to be a broad follow on from the 00z but in a pretty progressive fashion 

    @feb1991blizzard - one thing the model hasn’t done is promise decent snowfall on its output - the uppers have barely shown low enough to interact with the North Sea, even on its more easterly runs 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Scandy high reastablishing at 192

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Nice 192 though TBF.

    The ECM is briliant at being brilliant days 8/9/10...that's one thing I've noticed over the past few years. The thing is if we had had a N'ly or E'ly for every time one was progged at that time frame by the ECM we would be sick to the back teeth of cold/snow by now...

    Once again tonight, the ECM gives renewed hope at day 8- but TBH until it gets to within 4/5 days I'm past caring.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    This forum is a like a Shakespearean tragedy.

    Just recently there have been calls to end GFS, to euthenize the ECM and now Bambi has been slaughtered!  

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, Mucka said:

    This forum is a like a Shakespearean tragedy.

    Just recently there have been calls to end GFS, to euthenize the ECM and now Bambi has been slaughtered!  

    Yes it’s great fun! :D

    You need a good sense of humour if you follow the models especially when anything Scandi related comes into view.

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    NAVGEM 12z ( again ) carbon copy of UKMO

    old fashioned Easterly 168-180

    1B6EC0C4-9B64-416B-9647-28294E10C115.thumb.png.6eeb3f7ea6d5ff8e30430812b0a0188d.png9D9DC083-A7EC-4752-9095-7C4CE461023D.thumb.png.d6287b3407ffb6af5204fc45f2c72c49.pngACD580D4-A99F-4519-8173-D40A6B43A23A.thumb.png.513aeb9595bc5911da8c0255b557fc89.png

    Sorry Steve but I just think you are trying to wish this easterly here now.

    Looking at the models I think we're struggling to even have a sniff at even a half arsed breakdown.

    Missed the bus(again on this one)and I think the models will continue pulling away from anything remotely cold at all.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    So much to say, but I'm pretty sure it's all been said regarding the current output!

    Lots of modelling to come with this upcoming period. So for now UKMO 144 is my favourite chart of the evening :) I won't post it as I'm sure it's been posted.

    happy rollercoastering :0 

     

     

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Nice 192 though TBF.

    Whats nice about that?...trough disruption but not with a negative tilt. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The picture at day 7 reminds me of the mess that the 18z gfs got into yesterday 

    i cant make much sense out of this run although it can be seen to be a broad follow on from the 00z but in a pretty progressive fashion 

    @feb1991blizzard - one thing the model hasn’t done is promise decent snowfall on its output - the uppers have barely shown low enough to interact with the North Sea, even on its more easterly runs 

    True - but in a way that's the point I am making - I am no way bigging up the GFS's handling of this episode, I'm just saying there were people suggesting that the cold uppers would come, I just don't know why when the median of all the output was what is now being modelled by the ECM op, why some people expected something to occur practically outside the spread and then shooting people like CC down for suggesting it might not, and also ridicule ensembles - but I always repeat this, unless you have a really good number (like a majority) of members with frigid upper temps as it comes into high res, its more than likely to hit the buffers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    No wonder we voted for Brexit you just can't trust those euro's:D

    Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Flat as a pancake upstream...no chance of getting cold back from 168 on wards. Another ECM balls up over the last few days!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Whats nice about that?...trough disruption but not with a negative tilt. 

    It was possible undercut still - look at the elongation, and look to the East, however - it didn't.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Kudos to the teleconnect gurus, they trumped the models.

    Here's hoping they're right for later in the month. 

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