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Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

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ARPEGE keeps colder air for longer next week. If you take a look at the ThetaE 850hPa on meteociel, you can see the colder air still in the south on Monday evening. 

In terms of comparing the Ukmo 144 chart above with GFS from two days, the UKMO has a more negatively tilted trough, better CAA down eastern Scandi, better angled heights north and lower heights over Central Europe than GFS had. Although there’s no doubt the GFS was closer at that point in time than ECM’s chart. But it had moved towards euros even at that point.

D7D34BDD-66E1-4CFE-A59B-AF9588C2B4D9.png

79DDFB75-3B6E-4975-ACEB-BA2F571F61E6.png

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

The problem is without a proper undercut or cold to tap into, this chart is essentially cold with rain. To get an easterly from this would be at best day 8, even then unlikely.

 

dont mean to be a negative nelly but I feel it's realistic 

The Azores high is just about to ridge in the raise height over Europe..... not a great chart really

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PM incursion lasted about 12 hours lol.

Lets hope for a nice EC, although as mucka posted above, its been way to optimistic with the blocking signal-

still it was nice to have a bit of interest for a few days- the wife will be glad its gone pete tong tho - :D

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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The problem is without a proper undercut or cold to tap into, this chart is essentially cold with rain. To get an easterly from this would be at best day 8, even then unlikely.

 

dont mean to be a negative nelly but I feel it's realistic 

There is some evidence of energy going SE so that can not be ruled out further ahead - I think folk should be looking at the big picture here. UKMO is perfectly good what’s looking clear to me we may need a second bite of the cherry to get them cold uppers in, UKMO is primed to do so IMO.

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The Met Office have described the high as a cold block......, Is that an accurate description to me it looks like a standard ridge thrown up with Cold air going down its eastern flank, had the ridge been thrown up over the Atlantic it would be described as a toppler.

Speaking of topplers
gfs-0-324.png?12

Edited by frosty ground

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Nice bit of cold zonal showing again and again in the FI just the South misses out but not to worry next frame the south joins in as well.

Untitled.png

Untitled.png

 

Then signs at the end that the pv will locate eastwards.

Untitled.png

Edited by booferking

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well there's hopes, upper air temperatures over the east of the USA will become much milder early next week, so in theory that should take a lot of the oomph out of the jet and perhaps bring us something colder but even if doesn't, it should at least bring an end to the severe gales and very frequent rain for a while 

image.png

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Is there some secret group where only the favoured members have the actual charts for next Wednesday, if so how do i get in?

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4 minutes ago, Hot & Sunny said:

GFS on the money.

Yesterday's & today's 

The MetO have also updated now with no wintry showers.

Roll on Spring and thunderstorms, nothing to see here.

 

Roll on thunderstorms? You got to be joking, they have become rarer around here than even than decent Scandi  winter highs......

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11 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Or we could say ECM smashed it way back on December 31st...ECM1-240.thumb.gif.745611ec6e0beca3bfce2e8fb2a70a0a.gif GFS december 31st...gfs-0-240.thumb.png.40be8e4c64262080b0fedb5d307b3d95.png

Todays UKMO 12z....UW144-21.thumb.gif.e3cf8c752c74cac2db2729756ad17c4d.gif

 

We can all pick charts to suit our own thoughts in here. 

this debate on which model has called it right is getting a little old hat, at the end of the day they will always change from run to run, look closer to ecm one day then to the ukmo the next till they meet up at a different soloution at T+0

I think it is a fair point to make that no model smashed the other, it is one I have been trying to make myself.

That said you have cherrypicked charts to suit your argument. I know you haven't responded to my posts but I have posted sequential 12z charts and 00z charts over many days and it is very clear that the GFS was too progressive and ECM very erratic and too optimistic with blocking.

That is the takeaway here as other people have said, ALL the models struggle with these finely balanced situations and small changes can create seemingly massive divergence later over our small patch from model to model.

I expect as long as there is more than one model the debate will be eternal and that's okay, some great points are made about inbuilt model bias, just so long as we are not selective with our memories when making conclusions.

Edited by Mucka

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

PM incursion lasted about 12 hours lol.

Lets hope for a nice EC, although as mucka posted above, its been way to optimistic with the blocking signal-

still it was nice to have a bit of interest for a few days- the wife will be glad its gone pete tong tho - :D

At least I can get back on with my life now. This is the problem with model watching. It takes up a good part of your life and then you realise it's all been for nothing!! One of these days we will get lucky.... I hope!!!

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I’m not surprised the ECM and UKMO showed real cold when it isn’t looking like becoming reality, I am surprised MOGREPS had nearly full support of an Easterly or SE’ly which looks like now being non existent at said time frame.. GFS isn’t half as good as MOGREPS so if proved correct I’m putting it down to luck 😂 and same old no luck for us 👎🏼

I though we had a decent cold spell in the bag, wrong , again!! Tough to get these in the last few years

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Looking at hemisphere view the Meto is pretty good

UN144-21.GIF?04-17

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3 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

well there's hopes, upper air temperatures over the east of the USA will become much milder early next week, so in theory that should take a lot of the oomph out of the jet and perhaps bring us something colder but even if doesn't, it should at least bring an end to the severe gales and very frequent rain for a while 

image.png

Oh thank heavens for that, we've had more gales, rain and heavy/thundery showers during this one week in south Pembrokeshire than any given week during the stormy winter of 2013-14 and that's saying something! 

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Just now, Ali1977 said:

I’m not surprised the ECM and UKMO showed real cold when it isn’t looking like becoming reality, I am surprised MOGREPS had nearly full support of an Easterly or SE’ly which looks like now being non existent at said time frame.. GFS isn’t half as good as MOGREPS so if proved correct I’m putting it down to luck 😂 and same old no luck for us 👎🏼

I though we had a decent cold spell in the bag, wrong , again!! Tough to get these in the last few years

Just noting though that METO 144 looks interesting still. It might be MET Office products are running on a similar view hence seeing a cold spell that's not evident to us at present. I suspect not, but its a straw to grasp. 

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GFS ensembles are pretty much clustered around UKMO 144 if it were used as a mean.

Some are better , some are worse, but there is still plenty of opportunity for something colder down the line.

Fingers crossed we start to see some eye candy develop again within the Op runs over the next few days in the run up toward mid month.

Something like the cherrypicked ensemble members below perhaps?

gensnh-8-1-156.pnggensnh-9-1-162.png

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4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I think it is a fair point to make that no model smashed the other, it is one I have been trying to make myself.

That said you have cherrypicked charts to suit your argument. I know you haven't responded to my posts but I have posted sequential 12z charts and 00z charts over many days and it is very clear that the GFS was too progressive and ECM very erratic and too optimistic with blocking.

That is the takeaway here as other people have said, ALL the models struggle with these finely balanced situations and small changes can create seemingly massive divergence later over our small patch from model to model.

I expect as long as there is more than one model the debate will be eternal and that's okay, some great points are made about inbuilt model bias, just so long as we are not selective with our memories when making conclusions.

I did indeed cherry pick and stated this in my post. Only as i feel it happens often in here and there is most likely to be a chart in the archives to back someones point of view.

Don't get me wrong, i am no expert here and take the points of others seriously that know there stuff. I also like the banter between members too as it makes this weather malarky enjoyable :D

PS wasn't having a dig by the way :friends:

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11 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Is there some secret group where only the favoured members have the actual charts for next Wednesday, if so how do i get in?

Yes and because its secret you are not allowed :rofl:  (only kidding)

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10 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Roll on thunderstorms? You got to be joking, they have become rarer around here than even than decent Scandi  winter highs......

Sorry to hear that. We had six storms in one day last year. Quote in news “I don’t think we’ve had as many thunderstorms one after another like this before. We must have had six or seven and that’s quite exceptional.“

 

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4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles are pretty much clustered around UKMO 144 if it were used as a mean.

Some are better , some are worse, but there is still plenty of opportunity for something colder down the line.

Fingers crossed we start to see some eye candy develop again within the Op runs over the next few days in the run up toward mid month.

Something like the cherrypicked ensemble members below perhaps?

gensnh-8-1-156.pnggensnh-9-1-162.png

Yep quite a few ens are good not over just yet by the looks of it.

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@mucka - pet hate of mine is over analysis and reliance on op runs post day 6/7. 

If we check what the eps mean was showing tues 12z we get this

C7D0C62E-B520-4784-8828-CB398947B196.thumb.jpeg.525fae00af0196511da92be012da50b1.jpeg

that looks like being close, especially if we compare with today’s  gefs 06z mean for the same time

085C2A42-01B9-447A-9679-6512B5FEEA8D.thumb.jpeg.615cbd47c02a436737459da57d94563f.jpeg

 

the moral of of the story is to look at ens means post day 6/7 rather than gfs and ec ops.  We don’t have all the clusters on all the models to assess like Exeter can. 

Rmemeber, what is evolving next week would be a pretty wintry scenario at the surface if the uppers had played ball. Nothing deeply cold required - just sub zero would have helped !

EDIT: and there is one thing worse than relying on ops post T168 and thats illustrating ens members as being of any significance!! I think they should only be used to illustrate things like the possibility of amplified patterns or split vortices or deep depressions - no detail at all as they are unlikely to be in the right locale with their broad upper pattern.

Edited by bluearmy

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For now just pretend ensembles 3,8 & 9 are the GFS, UKMO & ECM 144

gensnh-3-1-144.thumb.png.1da32c815c0811ac61a07b110af453fa.pnggensnh-8-1-144.thumb.png.5a81a2998f89c7748e87ba6bfd597b46.pnggensnh-9-1-144.thumb.png.6509e21db301977ad1531a100dda89d6.png

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A difficult call still going forward, we do see high pressure build around Scandinavia though the route to a quick easterly looks off the table for now.

I can't really call next week dry, we will see fronts pushing east from the Atlantic which will become slow moving or even stall across the UK. The first attempt to break down the block looks more likely to fail with the trough tending to weaker with surface pressure filling.

gens-21-1-120.png   gens-21-1-144.png   gens-21-1-168.png

The set up looks poised with the UK on the whole chilly rather than cold. That said the pattern has enough give to allow for a much colder easterly if we get some luck. 

So next week looks like starting dry before rain tries to push eastwards, uncertainty on the eastward progression of this, conditions should turn drier after midweek before another attempt by the Atlantic to break through the following weeked, all the while there is the risk of much colder air being dragged around the high from the east.

As for the GFS/ECM battle, it all seems to be down to how much interaction the high gets with the ridge over Turkey, the less interaction with this increases the chance of the high remaining in place to our NE and controlling conditions over the UK, if the ridge does take control then the high slips back into Eastern Europe allowing low heights to our NW to take control with changeable conditions again. The ECM really wanted to intially block out that ridge with cold air pushing westwards, the GFS didn't see this at all to start, so in the end we have converged on a middle ground though the trough disruption totued by the ECM/GEM is still there, it s just that the battled has occured further east due to chages further east.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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22 minutes ago, Hot & Sunny said:

GFS on the money.

Yesterday's & today's 

The MetO have also updated now with no wintry showers.

Roll on Spring and thunderstorms, nothing to see here.

 

 

 

 

 

a.png

aa.png

If that isn’t an overreaction to one run of the gfs I don’t know what is. Ah well see you in spring. 

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