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Model output discussion - into 2018

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4 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

This is what Iv been doing but is it beneficial to a beginner ? If there’s a consensus another way im all ears and eyes 👀 

In short, it is unlikely you can pickup real trends in 6 hourly runs, especially when people are looking 6+ days away for those trends, when you take into account mathematical uncertainties vs the benefit of an alleged up to date data source. I think the suggest is more from a sanity point of view than anything else.

Exceptions of course for high res storm tracking and precipitation forecasts.

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I must admit to being a little more optimistic after seeing the 06z and its ens  so I decided to re-visit the ERSL composite strat charts and they to give more confidence of  a more amplified pattern developing in the mid range. Further downwelling still instigated by strong wave break in early December over Alaska, northern Canada and now a wave 2 type response from Central, northern Europe extending north should make itself more visible in the troposphere in the next 10 to 15 days so do not be surprised to see the emergence of a more amplified stronger block into northern Scandinavia with much more of a possibility of undercutting.

Here's hoping for a much better 12z from the gfs.

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ICON looks a little more amplified at 72-

From small acorns grow!!

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I don't get why the ECM op has been trashed by some today. It had 5 pretty consistent runs on the bounce. It has now had one slightly different run. Is that such a crime in the model world? The ensembles had made it pretty clear the final destination hadn't been nailed!

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

I don't get why the ECM op has been trashed by some today. It had 5 pretty consistent runs on the bounce. It has now had one slightly different run. Is that such a crime in the model world? The ensembles had made it pretty clear the final destination hadn't been nailed!

It was missing an easterly component strong enough to freeze people solid as they stepped outside their doors.

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5 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

I for one am looking forward to battleground snow followed by a prolonged spell of cold from the east. Unfortunately though I don't think the pessimists will withdraw their negativity, they will just move it on to something else to be pessimistic and negative about !

One persons negativity is another's realism just as one persons optimism is another's delusion :). Crewe was getting some stick the another night but he was only commenting on what he saw. There have been times lately when I've wondered if I had a cache problem as the charts I have seen haven't seemed to marry up with the commentary in this thread.

Anyway, hopefully a good set of charts coming up. On occasion cold spells have been picked up, dropped by most models and then been brought back with a vengeance. I don't see that happening here, but it can't be discounted.

 

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19 minutes ago, jvenge said:

In short, it is unlikely you can pickup real trends in 6 hourly runs, especially when people are looking 6+ days away for those trends, when you take into account mathematical uncertainties vs the benefit of an alleged up to date data source. I think the suggest is more from a sanity point of view than anything else.

Exceptions of course for high res storm tracking and precipitation forecasts.

Not really.

totally disagree with some of the comments in here.

Compare 6hr V last 6 hour - look ( or expect ) trends if you know where to look & review those changes ( If you have time ) especially with mean Charts V same timestamps

this is especially good if you have the facility to compare 3/4 runs in allignment....

It then avoids the curious posts and to why did a model change so much- well if you had been watching you would already know....

Edited by Steve Murr

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

It then avoids the curious posts and to why did a model change so much

Might I suggest that doesn't appear to be working?

 

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Not really.

totally disagree with some of the comments in here.

Compare 6hr V last 6 hour - look ( or expect ) trends if you know where to look & review those changes ( If you have time ) especially with mean Charts V same timestamps

this is especially good if you have the facility to compare 3/4 runs in allignment....

It then avoids the curious posts and to why did a model change so much- well if you had been watching you would already know....

Anything of not steve yet🤔

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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I am crucially poised for the ‘crucial’ 12 z runs :cold:

 

BFTP

I did that once, and I ruptured my cruciate...

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The ICON is out up to 150 hours. After some initial improvement it goes downhill with the Atlantic making progress across the UK.

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A short cold snap to come for us in South Wales before turning a bit milder again but the main thing next week is it'll be much less windier and drier which is excellent news for many! 

Edited by Draig Goch

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1 minute ago, Draig Goch said:

A short cold snap to come for us in South Wales before turning a bit milder again but the main thing next week is it'll be much less windier and wetter which is excellent news for many! 

yep the wind has been punishing - surprised we got any trees left lol

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4 minutes ago, karyo said:

The ICON is out up to 150 hours. After some initial improvement it goes downhill with the Atlantic making progress across the UK.

Boy am i glad here in the midlands we have 5 snowfalls in december cos at the moment it looks like we got some boring weather on the way!!

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Crucially crouching and a crushed crucial ligament for the crucial 12z's.  Good practice for the impending South downs ski resort that is about to seen....well here is to hoping; though I expect further movements towards each other but with a slightly better orientation and slightly sharper. 

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15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Not really.

totally disagree with some of the comments in here.

Compare 6hr V last 6 hour - look ( or expect ) trends if you know where to look & review those changes ( If you have time ) especially with mean Charts V same timestamps

this is especially good if you have the facility to compare 3/4 runs in allignment....

It then avoids the curious posts and to why did a model change so much- well if you had been watching you would already know....

Comparing midrun is relatively easy with gfs runs because you can flip back and forth between the new run coming out and the previous one. The earlier in the run you can see changes, slight differences in heights or tightess isobars, the bigger the changes later on. Pretty sure the 12z won't come with such a nice Scandi as before but it will topple because the heighs aae tthicker and will make contact later on toppling the high south east 

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Best run of the day from UKMO - transitioning well that high- 

58CF670B-D797-4350-ABDD-D34D2F4D0FDE.thumb.png.8ab865d72e7d808ec427b641befeb67d.png

Indeed, and surely at t+144 the UKMO is a better bet than the GFS?

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Indeed, and surely at t+144 the UKMO is a better bet than the GFS?

You would like to think so- problem is GFS is on the back foot catch up!

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Best run of the day from UKMO - transitioning well that high- 

58CF670B-D797-4350-ABDD-D34D2F4D0FDE.thumb.png.8ab865d72e7d808ec427b641befeb67d.png

It's a long way from the previously programmed GEM/ECM Easterly for the same time period though.

Nice Orientation and look to it but we would need a favourable upstream pattern to get the retrogression required.

If correct it looks like we are now playing the long game which is much better than not being in the game at all of course.

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I would suggest both GFS and UKMO are in good positions by T144. Negative tilt on both - could well lead to an undercut (I appreciate the GFS may not actually show that in later frames, what I am saying is that it is in a good position to do that from here with a little nudge on the pattern)

UW144-21.GIF?04-17  gfs-0-144.png?12

The reason the GFS does not do so on this occasion is that it does not disrupt the low - but everything screams out to me that it should, and it move towards this shortly.

Edited by Man With Beard

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