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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne
  • Location: Eastbourne

Could be an interesting set of ensembles from the 6z, at around 162hrs I would suggest 12 or so members would go onto offer something more interesting. Ptb 3 is a cracker.image.thumb.png.42ffc1f412442716c1ac98fe878d9dc3.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Is it me or are the ENS at 180 way better than the last lot - this is a big GFS ENS upgrade for coldies...

plenty of other sports but here’s P5

39F69F1A-39C6-4085-A4B9-02368D0FE81A.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Indeed,.  I can't help but feel we are chasing a dead duck here.  No matter how much of an easterly flow we achieve before the potential under cut - if there is no cold to tap into what good will it do ? Surely we are better looking at a PM flow with cold from the North west to deliver snow?  We can then hope for a mid Atlantic block around day 10 with lower heights into Europe? 

I have such mixed feelings about the upcoming chilly spell. I am pleased we will get a break from the westerlies but on the other hand the complete luck of cold uppers in January is hard to swallow. Even the initial northeasterly this weekend will bring pitiful uppers that last just for 24 hours. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Is it me or are the ENS at 180 way better than the last lot - this is a big GFS ENS upgrade for coldies...

plenty of other sports but here’s P5

39F69F1A-39C6-4085-A4B9-02368D0FE81A.png

Yes..tbf im quite amazed@ some on view!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Milltimber, Aberdeen ~ 80m asl
  • Location: Milltimber, Aberdeen ~ 80m asl

Looks like a bit of stand-off between the Atlantic and the Scandi block initially. If you look through the archives a similar occurrence occurred prior to the Feb 91 outbreak and it took a couple of attempts before the block could extend westwards. If the evolution is to be similar to Feb 91 (albeit with less cold air in situ), as already mentioned, if would be helpful if that PV chunk in NE Canada shifted N/NW'wards.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Just now, Ali1977 said:

Is it me or are the ENS at 180 way better than the last lot - this is a big GFS ENS upgrade for coldies...

plenty of other sports but here’s P5

39F69F1A-39C6-4085-A4B9-02368D0FE81A.png

yes it does look as if the gfs ens have made a big move towards the euros on the 06z.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

NAVGEM06z is a carbon copy of UKMO 00z if you wanted to know what 168 was like

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

What do you make of the ENS steve, look much better with 6/7 attempting a Greenland high ?

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

Looking interesting with blocking to east/north east any weather fronts comes up against a brick wall any weather fronts looking to stall to west and south west and if they come further east there could be some snow. Looking very good for a cold snap to increase..

IMG_0328.PNG

IMG_0329.PNG

IMG_0330.PNG

IMG_0331.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM ensembles general idea between D10 and D15 - NE or E heights still likely by the 14th Jan - room enough in there for a number of possibilities all the way from an Atlantic breakthrough over the UK to a sustained undercut:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018010400_240.

By 16th Jan, the Atlantic has made a full breakthrough:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018010400_300.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

9 years ago

GFS 168 V actual 7 days later

33D6FA3D-8AFA-45D4-989F-8A3A9654A7D7.thumb.png.3bde0e735f86c752eca34ec19f79fe7c.pngDC753537-7091-4BDA-8E01-48F944E16F56.thumb.png.3d44c8f19d98fc6b33ecc28576757ad9.png

But wouldn’t have the GFS model upgrades resolved some of these issues in the meantime Steve?

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
2 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

Yesterday I was sceptical. Even more so now.

GFS drop in angular momentum is now inching forward day by day sufficient to be taken notice of.

tropics.thumb.jpg.1cf98a34d96eae28dda07c734b88eba1.jpg

That ensures us in a GWO Phase 2 type scenario, cyclonic but still with the ridge tantilisingly to the north-east. The lack of any real depth of cold the crucial thing here.

5a4df50426923_gwophase2jan.thumb.jpg.25409643acf8e4b3bfca54889d262861.jpg5a4df50a95732_GWOphase2janeuro.thumb.jpg.92758068ab24ecfd8256612fbc66e1f1.jpg

After day 10, the lowering AAM trend should abate and steadily reverse. With the eastward progression of the tropical wave, westerly inertia should pick up signalling a movement in the GWO towards phases 3 and 4. Phase 4 being the phase in which a proper easterly could take root - but stress, that is some way off yet.

5a4df55579944_gwophase4janfilternina.thumb.gif.95b81138f09bba15f2a7d08bf04b88cb.gif5a4df528a611b_GWOphase4janeuro.thumb.jpg.f638b56114cf783071a2a18c4ead62d3.jpg

Unfortunately I have to agree. Some WDT updates this morning, and the most recent overall calculated tendency is dropping sharply. 

Calculated Tendency

With GWO reversing back towards a 2 - 1 orbit 

Latest 90 Days GWO

and reinforced by the admittedly biased but nevertheless rather fairly dramatic schiraldi plot

Not Complete Yet

Grrrr - being positive about cold weather chances in the UK gets very wearing sometimes! So - I grumpily return to my gut position of pre New Year... that second half of January is the next window of opportunity and that anything in the next week to 10 days is likely to be transient and quick to fade. By then we have MJO in a more helpful orbit and renewed frictional torques to support amplification potential.

From a micro level the orientation of the block looks increasingly likely to cut off any chances of a cold feed in the short term anyway - we dont have the draw of cold uppers from the east and instead pull warmer air up from the Med. It's a close but no cigar scenario as the block fades east and south thanks to insufficient poleward energy transport and dominant canadian trough.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

More amplification/ridging upstream Steve than what we've been experiencing the last few weeks to get to that back in 2009

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
25 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Unfortunately I have to agree. Some WDT updates this morning, and the most recent overall calculated tendency is dropping sharply. 

Calculated Tendency

I am puzzled here; are you looking at data that actually goes into early Jan whereas the plots above end on 31 Dec with the tendency levelling off?

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

That's a cache issue with WDT.

Updated..glaam.thumb.jpg.e36fade868e1aac1ccb50d32767fe3d4.jpgglcalctend.thumb.jpg.daea70f900c83ca5bfb48196564ab398.jpg

Note the -ve AAM anomaly 20N-30N which the GEFS is renewing days 5-12.

Edited by Glacier Point
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

06z ens has a cold snap this weekend and into the start of next week 850's then recover before another drop around mid-month

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.f54d4099f37df97caebbe936926d59e4.png

Any prolonged cold and mild air looks unlikely more like an alternating pattern of cold air and some slightly milder air

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
6 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

That's a cache issue with WDT.

Updated..glaam.thumb.jpg.e36fade868e1aac1ccb50d32767fe3d4.jpgglcalctend.thumb.jpg.daea70f900c83ca5bfb48196564ab398.jpg

Note the -ve AAM anomaly 20N-30N which the GEFS is renewing days 5-12.

Any idea what's going on with this? The cache issue is bizarre - @Singularity - sorry - you are correct - my WDT graphic is NOT the one that then appears after the save. Only work around seems to be to save and then upload the saved image. I'll try and adjust my initial post....

 

EDIT: Grrr - cant edit my original cos time has gone. GP has posted the proper one I had meant to show above. I'm off to have another moan at WDT....

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean shows a battle developing next week between atlantic lows trying to push in against high pressure blocking to the east with winds generally from a  SEly direction and feeling cold, especially as the isobars occasionally tighten (winds strengthen) with maxima  in the low to mid single digits celsius range from north to south..there is a risk of wintry ppn, more likely on hills and further north. Beyond next week low pressure to the northwest becomes the more dominant feature with a zonal broadly westerly flow bringing spells of wet and windy weather across the uk, sometimes cold enough for snow, mainly further north and higher up and some overnight frosts / ice during any short-lived quieter interludes.:)

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

“The next 12Z will be crucial” is a bit irksome the same has been said day on day, surely if it was so crucial we would have firmed up by now, if you see GFS it’s been correcting a lot more than ECM.

I’ve not had a look at GEFS but that’s good to hear^ 

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