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Model output discussion - into 2018


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16 minutes ago, shaky said:

Control has higher pressure ovet scandinavia at 96 hours compared to 00z!!gfs wat are you doing?

gens-0-1-162.png

Had the uppers been lower you may have seen some snow of that, but all models now agree on (or have converged upon) the uppers being to warm for any battleground type setup (at least a wintry one)

Ensemble Member 1 has a better go at it

gens-1-1-156.png

Edited by frosty ground
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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I will try & do a post @130-2 to show the watch points of the 12z but the GFS mean is now sharpening up (84 v 90) so expect more & more ENS working to the euro

06z on the left

F6AF0874-E840-4684-8E47-80FA52DCB732.thumb.png.a9f2eca9187eaaad618c55ccdbaebd9f.png9266870C-9EE7-4F78-A51E-88A15FF22D11.thumb.png.3c54a31e791893c3ea39c664869a00a0.png

so round the clock then

* Icelandic WAA is further west ( note dark blue over Iceland on 00z - light blue 06z = further west

* Scandi trough is sharper -00z not closed & entry through northern parts , 06z entry through north west scandi

*Spanish low - further East with lower heights.

* Azores shortwave - more pronounced on 06z mean 

 

These 4 areas of activity are likely to sharpen again on 12z so

* Icelandic advection further west

* Scandi trough further west

* Italian low NE

* Azores low more pronounced & south west

These events are at T90 - the sharpening will have bigger repercussions on the pattern at 168 all working in favour of a more pronounced Easterly flow..

Because the 06z mean has sharpened these expect better ensembles...

hope this helps

S

Brilliant!!keep those updates coming!!control has stronger pressure aswell across scandinavia!!arpege at 72 hours on the 06z looks fine aswell!!cold upperw across the uk and dew points of -4!!!even the netherlands has sub freezing dew points around then!!

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Could be an interesting set of ensembles from the 6z, at around 162hrs I would suggest 12 or so members would go onto offer something more interesting. Ptb 3 is a cracker.image.thumb.png.42ffc1f412442716c1ac98fe878d9dc3.png

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Is it me or are the ENS at 180 way better than the last lot - this is a big GFS ENS upgrade for coldies...

plenty of other sports but here’s P5

39F69F1A-39C6-4085-A4B9-02368D0FE81A.png

Edited by Ali1977
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2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Indeed,.  I can't help but feel we are chasing a dead duck here.  No matter how much of an easterly flow we achieve before the potential under cut - if there is no cold to tap into what good will it do ? Surely we are better looking at a PM flow with cold from the North west to deliver snow?  We can then hope for a mid Atlantic block around day 10 with lower heights into Europe? 

I have such mixed feelings about the upcoming chilly spell. I am pleased we will get a break from the westerlies but on the other hand the complete luck of cold uppers in January is hard to swallow. Even the initial northeasterly this weekend will bring pitiful uppers that last just for 24 hours. 

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Looks like a bit of stand-off between the Atlantic and the Scandi block initially. If you look through the archives a similar occurrence occurred prior to the Feb 91 outbreak and it took a couple of attempts before the block could extend westwards. If the evolution is to be similar to Feb 91 (albeit with less cold air in situ), as already mentioned, if would be helpful if that PV chunk in NE Canada shifted N/NW'wards.

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Just now, Ali1977 said:

Is it me or are the ENS at 180 way better than the last lot - this is a big GFS ENS upgrade for coldies...

plenty of other sports but here’s P5

39F69F1A-39C6-4085-A4B9-02368D0FE81A.png

yes it does look as if the gfs ens have made a big move towards the euros on the 06z.

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ECM ensembles general idea between D10 and D15 - NE or E heights still likely by the 14th Jan - room enough in there for a number of possibilities all the way from an Atlantic breakthrough over the UK to a sustained undercut:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018010400_240.

By 16th Jan, the Atlantic has made a full breakthrough:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018010400_300.

 

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2 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

Yesterday I was sceptical. Even more so now.

GFS drop in angular momentum is now inching forward day by day sufficient to be taken notice of.

tropics.thumb.jpg.1cf98a34d96eae28dda07c734b88eba1.jpg

That ensures us in a GWO Phase 2 type scenario, cyclonic but still with the ridge tantilisingly to the north-east. The lack of any real depth of cold the crucial thing here.

5a4df50426923_gwophase2jan.thumb.jpg.25409643acf8e4b3bfca54889d262861.jpg5a4df50a95732_GWOphase2janeuro.thumb.jpg.92758068ab24ecfd8256612fbc66e1f1.jpg

After day 10, the lowering AAM trend should abate and steadily reverse. With the eastward progression of the tropical wave, westerly inertia should pick up signalling a movement in the GWO towards phases 3 and 4. Phase 4 being the phase in which a proper easterly could take root - but stress, that is some way off yet.

5a4df55579944_gwophase4janfilternina.thumb.gif.95b81138f09bba15f2a7d08bf04b88cb.gif5a4df528a611b_GWOphase4janeuro.thumb.jpg.f638b56114cf783071a2a18c4ead62d3.jpg

Unfortunately I have to agree. Some WDT updates this morning, and the most recent overall calculated tendency is dropping sharply. 

Calculated Tendency

With GWO reversing back towards a 2 - 1 orbit 

Latest 90 Days GWO

and reinforced by the admittedly biased but nevertheless rather fairly dramatic schiraldi plot

Not Complete Yet

Grrrr - being positive about cold weather chances in the UK gets very wearing sometimes! So - I grumpily return to my gut position of pre New Year... that second half of January is the next window of opportunity and that anything in the next week to 10 days is likely to be transient and quick to fade. By then we have MJO in a more helpful orbit and renewed frictional torques to support amplification potential.

From a micro level the orientation of the block looks increasingly likely to cut off any chances of a cold feed in the short term anyway - we dont have the draw of cold uppers from the east and instead pull warmer air up from the Med. It's a close but no cigar scenario as the block fades east and south thanks to insufficient poleward energy transport and dominant canadian trough.

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25 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Unfortunately I have to agree. Some WDT updates this morning, and the most recent overall calculated tendency is dropping sharply. 

Calculated Tendency

I am puzzled here; are you looking at data that actually goes into early Jan whereas the plots above end on 31 Dec with the tendency levelling off?

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06z ens has a cold snap this weekend and into the start of next week 850's then recover before another drop around mid-month

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.f54d4099f37df97caebbe936926d59e4.png

Any prolonged cold and mild air looks unlikely more like an alternating pattern of cold air and some slightly milder air

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6 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

That's a cache issue with WDT.

Updated..glaam.thumb.jpg.e36fade868e1aac1ccb50d32767fe3d4.jpgglcalctend.thumb.jpg.daea70f900c83ca5bfb48196564ab398.jpg

Note the -ve AAM anomaly 20N-30N which the GEFS is renewing days 5-12.

Any idea what's going on with this? The cache issue is bizarre - @Singularity - sorry - you are correct - my WDT graphic is NOT the one that then appears after the save. Only work around seems to be to save and then upload the saved image. I'll try and adjust my initial post....

 

EDIT: Grrr - cant edit my original cos time has gone. GP has posted the proper one I had meant to show above. I'm off to have another moan at WDT....

Edited by Catacol
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