Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

Recommended Posts

No worries mate

I wonder how long before the GFS looks like this

76B5CA47-28A0-45B0-A237-FC3F09FE32C2.thumb.png.39d142cc5137035375b00d8a2006d1b5.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know a lot of the attention is towards the high to the east but the decider is the initial trough disruption which is greatly effected by the pattern in the east USA.

NOAA highlighted a lot of problems with the models and both arms of the jet re phasing .

The best solution downstream will likely be the one which comes in tow with an amplified shortwave upstream  attaching to the PV and pulling the deep purples away further to the nw.

If you compare the GFS 0hrs run with the GFS 06 hrs in the east USA, note the difference with the phasing and amplitude and see its effect on the PV to the nw.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

The block to the north east looking like its stronger or am I mistaken here ..

IMG_0325.PNG

IMG_0326.PNG

Hasn't the GFS now moved completely to the Met Office model?

Will it move any further?

It strikes me that the models have converged - on leaving the Scandi in tact for the longer term.

What will happen next?

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No worries mate

I wonder how long before the GFS looks like this

76B5CA47-28A0-45B0-A237-FC3F09FE32C2.thumb.png.39d142cc5137035375b00d8a2006d1b5.png

Steve..

 It doesn't say what model it is?

 MIA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unless we can find a way of advecting some lower uppers to our se by middle next week we are peeing in the wind hoping for a snowy breakdown late next week.

best we could hope for is the Scandi ridge being rebuilt by further WAA and better CAA via lower euro heights than we see next week - that would be next weekend 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I don't know what to make of it all, except for one thing: whatever the models are saying, the weather will do what it's always been going to do. We just won't know what that is until after the fact...:cold::D:good:

Pete, I know exactly what will happen, it happens every winter.....ECM shows a beasterly, and maintains that stance for several runs...the GooFuS says bugger that, the atlantic will batter any block that dares to stand in its way....then a few days into this stand off,  a strange thing happens, the two behemoths suddenly develop personality disorders, the ECM suddenly believes it's the GFS and vice-versa.....The ECM realises it has become addicted to the beasterly on steroids and needs to enter rehab, whilst the GFS gets its first sniff of the addictive qualities of a beasterly on steroids and becomes quickly hooked, and the two model monsters flip flop totally.....as for us lot in the model thread?.......no need for prozac, we're all insane to begin with! :crazy:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

The block to the north east looking like its stronger or am I mistaken here ..

IMG_0325.PNG

IMG_0326.PNG

It is stronger and also the depression in Southern Greenland is slightly further west which is good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Increasingly it appears we may be right on the dividing line but without the usual depth of cold available for widespread snowfall.

This being as yes, GLAAM falls, but probably not to the extent that GEFS has been going with over the coming week (let alone longer-term). The GWO phase 2 composite that GP referred to appears to be for all magnitudes when I expect that a weak phase 2 allows more wiggle room around what the composite shows?

How low GLAAM goes and for how long depends on whether the MJO over the IO is propagating east or not - animations of IR suggest probably? - and how much the CP convection affects matters.

In terms of what to reasonably hope for - not a full-on easterly within the next 7 days I should think, rather keeping the Scandinavian high centred as close to northern Norway as possible, so that there will be less work to be done as and when the GWO moves on to phases 3-4. Whether that means the UK is high and dry or just plain soggy, is highly uncertain at this stage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Steve..

 It doesn't say what model it is?

 MIA

The king.

NAVGEM- it’s the last time stamp @180 so don’t search for a later time lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning all :)

Plenty of people up and about at ungodly hours to catch the 00Z output it would seem.

gfs-0-174.png?6

GFS 06Z OP at T+174. The one thing it doesn't show is a raging Atlantic breaking down a Scandinavian HP block. The orientation of the HP block isn't of course what many on here would like but it reminded me of the ECM 00Z OP output this morning at the same time:

ECM1-168.GIF?04-12

I wouldn't call it cross model "agreement" but those who argue that model A is "moving toward" model B have something to hang their figurative hat on.

The ECM wasn't inspiring after that but as we've seen the journey begins with small incremental types. Steve Murr has been adroitly pointing out how the GFS has watered down its earlier Atlantic onslaught and now it's a half-hearted weak push with barely enough to get past the meridian.

I begin to suspect this cold "spell" or "snap" won't have the quality many on here seek but may have a shade more longevity.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Increasingly it appears we may be right on the dividing line but without the usual depth of cold available for widespread snowfall.

This being as yes, GLAAM falls, but probably not to the extent that GEFS has been going with over the coming week (let alone longer-term). The GWO phase 2 composite that GP referred to appears to be for all magnitudes when I expect that a weak phase 2 allows more wiggle room around what the composite shows?

How low GLAAM goes and for how long depends on whether the MJO over the IO is propagating east or not - animations of IR suggest probably? - and how much the CP convection affects matters.

In terms of what to reasonably hope for - not a full-on easterly within the next 7 days I should think, rather keeping the Scandinavian high centred as close to northern Norway as possible, so that there will be less work to be done as and when the GWO moves on to phases 3-4. Whether that means the UK is high and dry or just plain soggy, is highly uncertain at this stage.

Anywhere we can see the latest MJO update?

I tend to use this site but it is stuck on 1st Jan http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, karyo said:

Anywhere we can see the latest MJO update?

I tend to use this site but it is stuck on 1st Jan http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

The plots are are adjusted from GEFS so don't necessarily reveal what it's up to and still leave us in the dark with respect to ECM, but it's better than nothing and does show an eastward propagation which is encouraging.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

The plots are are adjusted from GEFS so don't necessarily reveal what it's up to and still leave us in the dark with respect to ECM, but it's better than nothing and does show an eastward propagation which is encouraging.

Brill, thank you.

The Pacific equatorial waters have warmed slightly in the last week (especially further west) so this should help with the eastward move.

Edited by karyo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Look a little closer MIA lol

WelI I  did say it was unbelievable.:nonono::D

MIA

Edit - Looks like an error in the reporting program?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bit of a change in the clusters from yesterday - At D8, the Atlantic trough has made a little more headway against the NE heights. There's still considerable potential for a battleground Atlantic vs cold to the east if all falls correctly (I wouldn't make judgements over how cold the weather from the east will be yet, as it's very easy to get a cold continent in early Jan. Well at least it should be!)

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018010312_204.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018010400_192.

Edited by Man With Beard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not a great start to this mornings runs with the Scandi High retreating like the French, still potential for some battleground stuff though probably not for those South of the M4 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Wait

is that a mid Atlantic ridge appearing - raising the titanic?

Wait is that a low undercutting?

wait is that Scandi high now circular?

Where did that recarving jet come from?

 

6FB7D432-A202-4F4C-967C-59AECEF8DD00.thumb.png.277452fb70b96e693a26edbc46317d4e.png32BDD5B2-C575-4F0A-B57C-6DEB924D28E4.thumb.png.36b9ef779d8ef973979ed6f9309b9c17.png

Careful Steve your battery is low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Nothing gets past you, aye Feb!

Not a great start to this mornings runs with the Scandi High retreating like the French, still potential for some battleground stuff though probably not for those South of the M4 

The battleground stuff looks on shaky ground though as well, I cant really go ape and throw my toys out of the pram over the Easterly because I never ever bought into one with a 500mb-850mb profile favourable to deliver what we want but I bet its only a tiny minority of ECM EPS that bring in any sig snow from the battleground now either, its that mild sector as the base of the Atlantic trough swings round from west to East rather than slides more subtly from NW to SE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Bit of a change in the clusters from yesterday - At D8, the Atlantic trough has made a little more headway against the NE heights. There's still considerable potential for a battleground Atlantic vs cold to the east if all falls correctly (wouldn't make judgements over how cold the weather from the east will be yet, as it's very easy to get a cold continent in early Jan. Well at least it should be!)

 

Ironically, the potential battleground could see colder air from the west compared to the east

GFSOPEU06_228_2.thumb.png.5253f7fce979cc7deb57a3a1731a3efa.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Control has higher pressure ovet scandinavia at 96 hours compared to 00z!!gfs wat are you doing🤔

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The battleground stuff looks on shaky ground though as well, I cant really go ape and throw my toys out of the pram over the Easterly because I never ever bought into one with a 500mb-850mb profile favourable to deliver what we want but I bet its only a tiny minority of ECM EPS that bring in any sig snow from the battleground now either, its that mild sector as the base of the Atlantic trough swings round from west to East rather than slides more subtly from NW to SE.

I don't think there will be a classic "breakdown" at all. I begin to suspect we will enter a rather quiet period after the weekend as neither the HP to the east nor the LP to the west will have enough influence to fully take over. We'll have dry if chilly days and some night frosts and fog before a gradual lifting of temperatures from the west in the latter part of the week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is what you call a level head and very professional one at that.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very interesting model watching as of late and looks to continue for a good while yet, With the cold spell just days away now hopefully the models will gain a much better handle on the details into next week.

Edited by Polar Maritime

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Ironically, the potential battleground could see colder air from the west compared to the east

GFSOPEU06_228_2.thumb.png.5253f7fce979cc7deb57a3a1731a3efa.png

Indeed,.  I can't help but feel we are chasing a dead duck here.  No matter how much of an easterly flow we achieve before the potential under cut - if there is no cold to tap into what good will it do ? Surely we are better looking at a PM flow with cold from the North west to deliver snow?  We can then hope for a mid Atlantic block around day 10 with lower heights into Europe? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...