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Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

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Just now, booferking said:

Greeks do us in everytime last your bottle up are cold this year pump us full of the warm stuff.:rofl:

Oi, don't blame us! :rofl:

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1 minute ago, Johnp said:

At 120 hrs the low near Iceland is 30mb weaker, but apart from that, great consistency from GFS.😇

Er not quite

06Z / 00z side by side.... consistently inconsistent-

5EF667AC-E516-4CCC-9CB3-B2A3D955F17D.thumb.png.cef2f39cc6a9fa3e4ab744f0cc757dc3.png36449C62-9B3D-47D2-AF3A-C1782C643842.thumb.png.9cf0c27b600abed8e8babe6738501c91.png

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UKMO T168, as requested:

ukm2.2018011100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc

 

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Er not quite

06Z / 00z side by side.... consistently inconsistent-

5EF667AC-E516-4CCC-9CB3-B2A3D955F17D.thumb.png.cef2f39cc6a9fa3e4ab744f0cc757dc3.png36449C62-9B3D-47D2-AF3A-C1782C643842.thumb.png.9cf0c27b600abed8e8babe6738501c91.png

Hmmm interesting!!better rounded block across scandinavia and also atlantic pushed further west again!!12z could bring a few surprises mate!!

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1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

UKMO T168, as requested:

ukm2.2018011100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc

 

Cheers

no use whatsoever lol

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Er not quite

06Z / 00z side by side.... consistently inconsistent-

5EF667AC-E516-4CCC-9CB3-B2A3D955F17D.thumb.png.cef2f39cc6a9fa3e4ab744f0cc757dc3.png36449C62-9B3D-47D2-AF3A-C1782C643842.thumb.png.9cf0c27b600abed8e8babe6738501c91.png

That's the GFS for you - LOL!

6z run is quite a big upgrade synoptically.

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Low cutting through the med & Italy doing the business here corker incoming methinks.

Edited by booferking

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GFS from 29th Dec showing this for sunday morning...gfs-0-216.thumb.png.991a9760aecb178f998c0ce5bb12c59f.png

ECM from 29th Dec showing this for sunday morning...ECM1-216.thumb.gif.f98b75d7083c716897df31e4cbcb1851.gif

GFS from todays 06z run showing this for sunday morning...gfs-0-72.thumb.png.1834cb3733c533494267850507e331e9.png

Well to my eyes the ECM from a week back looks closer to this mornings runs than the gfs ever did. Yes GFS has kept with its general theme past couple of days but by no means the winner. 

There is never a winner as the models always ebb and flow towards each other in time just like the weather ebbs and flows every minute of the day.

Edited by doctor32

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Cheers

no use whatsoever lol

Ha, yes. There is a plot with geopot heights (amongst other things):

ukm2.2018011100.168.lant.troplant.n850.f

 

The dashed lines are the heights, but without actual numbers....

 

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42 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All -

I crashed & burned after x2 330 model starts lol-

It’s clear that the overnights haven’t been quite as fruitful as hoped -

The Peter Snow swingometer has had a bit more swing to the GFS - 70/30 now - (70 ECM /30 GFS )

The blocking isn’t the issue- it will be the energy traversing underneath-

just as a reminder here is the 2 big guns lined up 00z yesterday to 00z today 192 yest V 168 today

GFS

871D3D43-F36F-42D0-AA0C-C4E9E19A3CBD.thumb.png.349ddc97b8c300948870c6ee1475ca7f.pngDF8E893C-05C1-4644-90B3-6F055F05A51B.thumb.png.92699b0f14ee0c2d7d1cbb7d12c3e954.png

ECM

22415977-BABC-4459-9539-8173D634DBA1.thumb.png.9de2cfb60bb959dfc18ce70534f0e80d.pngBE2D07AD-5B67-4184-B280-E8BBA1EB7928.thumb.png.ed63f14c0243c36f4724d65a9e673c80.png

It’s pretty clear from the above that the GFS has done most of the changing-

however where the ECM lost some continuity is weaker heights to the East & SE - not allowing for the CAA to rush west.

not quite sure what people are saying victory to the GFS lol.

lets remind ourselves of the 216 00z the day before

BFDF5229-CDEC-4806-BE9F-96D9FDAE4855.thumb.png.64448f822b0e5690fbe6cc32529969ab.pngD60428E9-7441-4F16-AF2C-75766A870D18.thumb.png.78c321f2f801931b9d9ab50a64a257ef.png

The GFS had nothing - ECM pretty good..

 

So there it is expect lots of changes again today -70/30 is the blend - if it gets worse 12z then it may end up 65/35 :)

Any sigh of UKMO 168!?

dont Be down beat yet....

 

ukm2.2018011100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.pngTOO SLOW:)

Edited by winterof79

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Actually scrap that post above.... i picked wrong ecm chart ooppps! 

Just woke up so a bit tired :cc_confused:

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More amplified shortwave appearing again upstream between T120hrs and T144hrs hrs.

This is key as it holds back the PV and more likely to disrupt more energy se wards.

 

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GFS is now sorta saying erm maybe I was wrong, but maybe I wasn’t hmmm what am I? 

MORE RUNS NEEDED 😂😂😂

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14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Er not quite

06Z / 00z side by side.... consistently inconsistent-

5EF667AC-E516-4CCC-9CB3-B2A3D955F17D.thumb.png.cef2f39cc6a9fa3e4ab744f0cc757dc3.png36449C62-9B3D-47D2-AF3A-C1782C643842.thumb.png.9cf0c27b600abed8e8babe6738501c91.png

I was being sarcastic Steve....

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The block to the north east looking like its stronger or am I mistaken here ..

IMG_0325.PNG

IMG_0326.PNG

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I don't know what to make of it all, except for one thing: whatever the models are saying, the weather will do what it's always been going to do. We just won't know what that is until after the fact...:cold::D:good:

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2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

The block to the north east looking like its stronger or am I mistaken here ..

IMG_0325.PNG

IMG_0326.PNG

The 1040 high covers more area and the yellows indicate a stronger block

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fickle beasts these Scandi type setups, should've kept my mouth shut for the 06z :rofl:

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