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Model output discussion - into 2018

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mind- ..

An' interesting set off ooz london ens!!!!

Screenshot_2018-01-04-09-03-10.pngaberdeen -above also..

Edited by tight isobar

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18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EXT eps are not great either.

Think its reasonable to say we need a shift back on the 12zs,I'm not entirely sure Exeter will change their update today but unless we see a trend to more undercutting very soon i think tomorrows update might remove the word snow from the text.

We'll see...

The met update coming on side is always the kiss of death 😔

 

The gfs has moved over more to the ecm than vice Versa however the ecm moving is what affects us more I'm afraid.

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i am a little dissapointed but then again certainly no blow torch by far.

im still very interested in seeing the outcome.

i think it will be cold and will have some wintry weather.

either by battle ground or convective.

still reckon a few surprises.

and to be fair team jo the models have backed of from the truely exciting stuff shown few days ago.

but also dont mean it wont change again.

 

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Sunday looks very cold now although the 850's do increase into next week temps at ground level are still likely to be on the cold side

UKMO 850's

UW48-7.thumb.GIF.a28292e5a191c94b6364316508a39606.GIFUW72-7.thumb.GIF.a9af4a42d0dbf4ed5fccdf6b83a6d23e.GIF

UW96-7.thumb.GIF.171bf68bd78db5904283655246f4bcc5.GIFUW120-7.thumb.GIF.477697b353de3d418373f768e1574606.GIF

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.282ead325686cbfb02b39f572478e4e7.GIF

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Not surprised to see a slightly less organised Scandi High from the ECM this morning - the option has remained within the clusters throughout the past 3 days, so in my opinion it was just a matter of time before it appeared on the op run too. We will have to wait until tonight for confirmation whether this is the new direction for the op, or if the run this morning merely reflects the uncertainty over which path will eventually be adopted. Certainly too early to write off the chances of a full undercut.

Bit of a backtrack from the ECM ensembles for depth of cold next week. Still lots of low single digit maxima, but whilst last night's run saw ice day potential for D10 on 50% of ensemble members, this morning we only see about 5%. 

Perhaps last night's ensembles will be as cold as they were going to go - or will they flip back tonight?

 

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2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Personally im not disappointed and I shall explain why.

Firstly despite some of the recent excellent runs from the GEM/ECM they all lacked a decent pool of cold air. We would of seen cold surface temps, maybe few flurries but that is it. At the moment I very much doubt any of the models have this right and who knows maybe changes will occur that will bring even colder air than recent ECM/GEM runs.

So rather than discussing which model was right. I would suggest we just sit back and watch this unfold without taking each output as gospel. Historically these situations i.e blocking have always been a nightmare to forecast.

Historically though once things change for the worst for snow on these shores, things don't tend to swing back. You never know though.

 

in before the 6z is epic, would be classic cold chase drama.:D

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2 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Theres almost solid model agree my friend...

All models aligning to gfs....

Complete op agree...

Thats good enough in my book!!!

I have to agree with your posts this morning ti, anyone who has looked at the overnight runs and doesn't see a step away from the euros in comparison to the last couple of days output for next week has obviously seen something I'm missing, which is entirely possible of course :). ECM for example.

ECM 00z ECH1-144.GIF?04-12 ECM 12z (y'day) ECH1-168.GIF?12

Scandi heights nowhere near as amplified and not as robust and cold air staying away from our shores.

I accept there is a chance that the ECM might be wrong and the GFS might be wrong (still) and the GEM might be wrong, but it's not likely. Guess we will know for sure later, as the models appear to be coming to more of an agreement now which you would expect to continue.

Longer term the prospects are still good however.

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As I said yesterday it is extremely rare to see one model correct and one wrong, 15yrs of model watching has taught me that they always converge on a middle ground. Unfortunately for snow lovers the middle ground in this case does not deliver as there is little cold to tap into from the east so any Atlantic incursion can not deliver snow. Still possible that the output changes in our favour and the initial easterly is colder and the Atlantic push is on a better tragedtory to deliver some transient snow late next week though. 

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I have to agree with your posts this morning ti, anyone who has looked at the overnight runs and doesn't see a step away from the euros in comparison to the last couple of days output for next week has obviously seen something I'm missing, which is entirely possible of course :). ECM for example.

ECM 00z ECH1-144.GIF?04-12 ECM 12z (y'day) ECH1-168.GIF?12

Scandi heights nowhere near as amplified and not as robust and cold air staying away from our shores.

I accept there is a chance that the ECM might be wrong and the GFS might be wrong (still) and the GEM might be wrong, but it's not likely. Guess we will know for sure later, as the models appear to be coming to more of an agreement now which you would expect to continue.

Longer term the prospects are still good however.

Ok..the 6z gfs is immenent..

Lets see what ensues?! 😉

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13 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

That’s what I was thinking looking at the 00z GEFS , the 6z is going to follow a cold member and carnage ensues ! 

 

This mornings mood feels like Annie Power at cheltenham! 

Already many small differences between 0z +18h and 6z +12h, mainly all the lows in the Atlantic, so the outcome will be very different 

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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All -

I crashed & burned after x2 330 model starts lol-

It’s clear that the overnights haven’t been quite as fruitful as hoped -

The Peter Snow swingometer has had a bit more swing to the GFS - 70/30 now -

The blocking isn’t the issue- it will be the energy traversing underneath-

just as a reminder here is the 2 big guns lined up 00z yesterday to 00z today 192 yest V 168 today

GFS

871D3D43-F36F-42D0-AA0C-C4E9E19A3CBD.thumb.png.349ddc97b8c300948870c6ee1475ca7f.pngDF8E893C-05C1-4644-90B3-6F055F05A51B.thumb.png.92699b0f14ee0c2d7d1cbb7d12c3e954.png

ECM

22415977-BABC-4459-9539-8173D634DBA1.thumb.png.9de2cfb60bb959dfc18ce70534f0e80d.pngBE2D07AD-5B67-4184-B280-E8BBA1EB7928.thumb.png.ed63f14c0243c36f4724d65a9e673c80.png

It’s pretty clear from the above that the GFS has done most of the changing-

however where the ECM lost some continuity is weaker heights to the East & SE - not allowing for the CAA to rush west.

not quite what people are saying victory to the GFS

lets remind ourselves of the 216 00z the day before

BFDF5229-CDEC-4806-BE9F-96D9FDAE4855.thumb.png.64448f822b0e5690fbe6cc32529969ab.pngD60428E9-7441-4F16-AF2C-75766A870D18.thumb.png.78c321f2f801931b9d9ab50a64a257ef.png

The GFS had nothing - ECM pretty good..

 

So there it is expect lots of changes again today -70/30 is the blend - if it gets worse 12z then it may end up 65/35 :)

Any sigh of UKMO 168!?

dont Be down beat yet....

 

Well steve if theres any changes to the 06z early am sure you will be the first to let us know mate!heres to a better 06z!!hopefully it goes with one of the colder enesmbles!!

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Just looking at the composites posted by GP above. If we are heading for a GWO 2 phase with some kind of ridge to the NE, would that not suggest a NW - SE aligned jet with (as the composite shows) low pressure digging into Europe? If so could be a lot worse, although is there potential for any mid Atlantic ridging in that set up which would allow less modification of cold uppers in a NWly flow?

 

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Well i ASSUME the silence in here means nothing has changed early on in this run!!lets hope for at least a bit of snowfall this weekend!!

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3 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Mid Atlantic ridge development would be derived ultimately from extension and retraction of the Asian Jet, heralding phase 3-4 transition. I wouldn't be entertaining that idea until after day 10.

That’s unlikely - it will be before then - day 7/8

The model you use above is GFS based - which at this stage is as bad as using the 500mb plot for predicting the future.

The GFS is still trying to carve out the high on the 06z but again is working on an improved solution.

11F7A191-5DAF-4F2F-81F6-E1B33E30CD28.thumb.png.92317b33cbc5f7c083919d7f49ccaad7.png60B40428-F87A-49C4-8456-FC337C6474E2.thumb.png.9f1661d5f120c240690b0c541a03efeb.png

06z first

more vertical motion upwards instead of NE

more Southerly motion - watch the Azores shortwave now developing T90 on the GFS wasnt There before....

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6z gfs...

The diss-alignment of heights along with lack of any notable cold...

Leaves us with air source from impending warm euro heights...

The time last year we' d have been sourcing from upper air of -12 +-..

The uk and luck for cold are diabolical...

Gfs stands firm!!!

Screenshot_2018-01-04-09-56-25.png

Screenshot_2018-01-04-09-56-07.png

Edited by tight isobar

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Greeks do us in everytime last your bottle up are cold this year pump us full of the warm stuff.:rofl:

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At 120 hrs the low near Iceland is 30mb weaker, but apart from that, great consistency from GFS.😇

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