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Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

All I know is that there will be widespread snow from 5-12 Jan.....

 

BFTP :cold-emoji:

Very bold statement or are you talking about somewhere other than the UK lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
23 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Shame the most favourable option for longer term cold is the least favoured. It goes along with my thoughts that this will be at best a very short lived cool/cold easterly. Think easterlies of 87 and 91 as your big fillet steak and this one as your tough rump and only 6oz.

Thats after any easterly or north easterly at 264 and the majority cluster brings a cold north wester.

Looks very good ..

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats after any easterly or north easterly at 264 and the majority cluster brings a cold north wester.

Looks very good ..

If you’re roughly north of Birmingham in that case they’re all interesting for wintry weather. I’d take the clusters with an extra pinch of salt - we all know as seen in the ‘main’ cluster and second biggest, Atlantic barging through it’s never as easy as they initially put on, the models are terrible with Scandi heights. Interesting that two out of three of which have amplification in the N Atlantic. So while we may lose the easterly feed, something else with a bit of a punch could be waiting in the wings. I think the longevity is up for grabs, currently you’d favour not a sustained easterly. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

If you’re roughly north of Birmingham in that case they’re all interesting for wintry weather. I’d take the clusters with an extra pinch of salt - we all know as seen in the ‘main’ cluster and second biggest, Atlantic barging through it’s never as easy as they initially put on, the models are terrible with Scandi heights. Interesting that two out of three of which have amplification in the N Atlantic. So while we may lose the easterly feed, something else with a bit of a punch could be waiting in the wings. I think the longevity is up for grabs, currently you’d favour not a sustained easterly. 

A failed E'ly could actually be more of a hindrance than a help in the longer run.

Very often we see HP sink down towards SE Europe as the jet stream roars over the top and sinks any block. There are signs of this happening in some of the output, which encourages the Canadian PV lobe to deepen and encroach even further across to our N&NW and thus intensifying the +NAO.

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
6 hours ago, knocker said:

That presuppose that the evolution of runs that do not produce the Holy grail are meteorologically speaking, of no interest and should not be commented on. I frankly want no part of that.

Not to dwell knocker, over already discussed,but I do get the impression from reading your excellent analysis over the years, that you do seem to get a bit excited over explosive cyclogenesis and more often sign post to those well out in FI, that are mostly a phantom of the GFS overegnogging.

We all have our preference and it is a well modded open forum,when extreme weather does come into the near term forecast it does get discussed. But the fact that cold pattern changes ahead of a week or so are discussed more regularly in the winter and versa I expect is not uncommon.

It just happens cold patterns are appearing on a weekly basis at the moment which I can understand might be underwhelming when wanting something akin to Autumn, but please continue as you are one of the most unbiased and offer much more than the tempered dross of TV forecasts.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

GFS has an Easterly for a day or so next weekend then gets pushed away by westerly rubbish, I was going to say this looks most likely, however the UKMO looks slightly better with heights slightly further North so may have a better chance of holding on an extra day or so. All looks like being short lived which ever way you look at it however,  and this is backed up by the METO forecast - a bit of a non event before wet and windy weather rolls back in!! 

UKMO below looks pretty good but a mighty chunk of PV looms to the East unfortunately. 

IMG_5760.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Wouldn't it be great if the ukmo was right...in the T+144 range for once!!!!:cold-emoji::D

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

ECM looks good to me , the PV is sliced into 3 chunks ......interesting times approach I say 

Yes and it looks like one if those chunks wants to move round the back of the resurgent  Scandi high late in the run. Definitely interesting times if that comes to fruition or close to it.  Could be talking one of Retron,s eighties easterlies if that came off.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
14 minutes ago, Banbury said:

ECM looks good to me , the PV is sliced into 3 chunks ......interesting times approach I say 

Agree. The uppers are marginal for snow in the reliable though. Admit it’s an interesting pattern going forward though.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Morning all

Overall pattern agreed on which is a good thing unfortunately the detail for the UK still looks very sketchy. The models are unable to agree on what type of high forms to the ne, they do seem to making a lot of drama over this. As SM just highlighted the pick of the crop for cold is the UKMO which has by far the strongest high to the ne at T144hrs and its T168hrs will raise a few eye brows in here!

Some of the differences can be attributed to the handling of the ne USA low, the flattest solution there is the GFS the UKMO has the more amplified one closer to the coast and downstream its view of the the PV to the ne is different which allows more room for the developing high to the north.

Putting aside those differences the trend is then to dig low pressure to the south to the west of the UK and keep high pressure to the ne.

This still leaves the door open for a battle ground scenario near the UK which will depend on how much trough disruption you see to the west.

I think the MJO is playing a role here in the outlook and the composite is a good match for the digging trough to the west and high pressure to the ne. Its also possible that the models aren't seeing a possible phase 1 entry before phase 2 or are caught in the middle here.

The MJO forecast which filters out interference from other variables has phase 1 imminently before phase 2. The normal dynamical forecasts go right into phase 2 after exiting the COD.

Overall the pattern shows possibilities for cold and snow lovers but detail and whether things will fall kindly at this stage still difficult to say.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Pleased to see the UKMO leading the way with this.

Previous efforts shown by the GFS and ECM have imploded with the UKMO never really onboard.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
12 hours ago, phil nw. said:

Still a fascinating period coming up with the polar jet wavering across the UK.The cold air looks like it is never going to be far away from Scotland through the coming week.

Next week end looks a tricky period to resolve as energy is split off the Atlantic as it comes up against the modest wedge of heights further north.

Currently it looks like the northern arm of the jet will eventually hold sway but as the gef stamps show by day 8 it is a close run thing.

viewimage.pbx?type=ens;date=20171230;tim

By day 10 ECM mean in line with the it's Op. run as the Atlantic looks too strong this time. 

EDH1-240.GIF?30-0

The persistence of that Canadian vortex is the main driver and it still looks like further incursions of polar maritime air from the nw is the more likely rather than any Scandi.high in week 2 at the moment. 

Well I see shallow heights from Greenland to Scandinavia and evolves into a more pronounced block.

The gem has churned out 3 runs on the trot with a much less progressive run.

Get new year out the way and we have more information on what direction and how well the models are performing.

To be fair the phantom ECM Greenland highs is not as bad this year.

Amount of winters with shredded nerves because ECM went on a blocking fetish.

But in my opinion nearly all models suggest something cold even if it is brief.

But I do think a block of sorts into Scandinavia Iceland could deliver our first cold Easterly or northeasterly.

As per last night Iceland Scandinavia block with low pressure systems diving under.

That's fair few runs from the top models showing similar evolution.

Fingers crossed long time since northeasterly or Easterly.

Let's get cold in and see if we can at least have something little more exciting for those who have missed out so far.

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

Verry interesting and exciting month of model watching it's been way better than last few winters. I hope today's UKMO verifies for once. May I wish every1 at netweather a very happy and a  prosperous 2018.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I wish my poor old eyes could see as much as some of you talk about on the Met 168h chart. Not I hasten to add that I think you are wrong just I cannot see the isobars well enough. Terrible thing old age!

The GFS 500 mb this morning keeps the faith, to a degree, for you coldies, but not as definite as it was yesterday, the NOAA output will perhaps help sort the will a NER ridge develop or not.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

John, I think you really are a bit of a latent coldie. Get yourself down to Spec Savers, they are doing a great offer for dear old folk ! All the best from Austria.

 C

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
9 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Less cold GEFS for London let’s see what the morning brings..

12Z 1E9BFC47-60F2-461A-B341-C1EFF4C20D01.thumb.gif.7f76d3f4d1506ad33cea2315f73e3be6.gif 18Z D779051E-7928-4319-9F55-62053EA78896.thumb.gif.1e96cf322df5bc376e9f193398318a11.gif

Mean has definitely dipped down from the 18z

graphe_ens3_yzm4.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Broadly speaking the direction of travel is good with ridging to our east intensifying as the ens come into higher res and the pulses of northern arm have nowhere to go but into Europe to our south. that keeps us on the cold side but the way gfs and ecm orientate the ridge on the ops (and ens ) means that we don't advect any proper cold uppers into nw Europe and when the battleground develops, it's probably going to be nerf guns rather than rpg's. Steve has illustrated the better ukmo in this respect. 

The outlook remains cool/cold unsettled but with the ridging to our ene thrown in as a wild card it should remain busy on here for the foreseeable. 

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