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Model output discussion - into 2018

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Indeed, but in almost all easterlies, get the cold in first and then look toward a widespread snow event. Much my preferred pattern, just a pain they only crop up every other decade (ish), or so it seems of late anyway!

Preferably snow first than cold, that way the ice stays nice and smooth 😉

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1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

It's worth remembering that Easterlies rarely ever arrive with very cold uppers piling in from the outset.

The one time I remember where an easterly imploded at a very short lead time was a number of years back. Pretty sure uppers were modelled between -15 to -20. All went pete tong overnight and that was that. The easterlys with a very cold pool air ready made to tap in to are very very rare.

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1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Preferably snow first than cold, that way the ice stays nice and smooth 😉

If it snows here first it will melt immediately, you could fry an egg on our southern tarmac... :crazy: 

lower the ground temps then I’m interested. But I’ll take a flake if that’s all that’s on offer.

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2 hours ago, warrenb said:

Nope, even the ENS can't seem to lower heights in the Med. Without that, you can forget it.

Looks like GFS doesn't deal with a split jet very well. Seems to always want to push the energy north.

 

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

HMMM - a very interesting GEFS set so far, lots of undercutting going on prolonging at the very least surface cold.

 

2 hours ago, s4lancia said:

12z GEFS set certainly showing plenty of interest in less energy going over the top of the block. All options still wide open.

Is Warren’s post contradicting the other two here? Seems a bit confusing. 

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 We aren’t talking the realms of FI here regards this cold spell , one model has it pretty wrong by day six but I’m guessing it’s only minor changes around day 3/4 that make big changes by then.  We always seem to end up with the worst case scenario when models are pulling against each other lately, let’s hope a sudden change of heart on the pub run and a good set of EC ENS again

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11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The one time I remember where an easterly imploded at a very short lead time was a number of years back. Pretty sure uppers were modelled between -15 to -20. All went pete tong overnight and that was that. The easterlys with a very cold pool air ready made to tap in to are very very rare.

Oh god yes, was that feb 2005?  I remember that clearly, the forums were 100s of times busier, and everyone had the thing nailed down, only for a complete u-turn the following morning in the charts. I even think the forecasters on the telly were forecasting it?? 

Possibly the biggest single letdown in my history on Netweather , I think most can agree on that?

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Just now, cyclonic happiness said:

Oh god yes, was that feb 2005?  I remember that clearly, the forums were 100s of times busier, and everyone had the thing nailed down, only for a complete u-turn the following morning in the charts. I even think the forecasters on the telly were forecasting it?? 

Possibly the biggest single letdown in my history on Netweather , I think most can agree on that?

Think it was the 'Ketley easterly'

I remember the uppers being progged...bitter!

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7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's already been the best winter for several years in some parts of the uk in terms of snow, ice and frosts..tonight's Ecm 12z would be the icing on the cake so to speak if it pans out similar to that run. It goes without saying I hope we are firmly on course for entrenched cold, bone chilling easterly winds, snow flurries / showers..penetrating frosts and plenty of ice!:D:cold:

Well, we've had three attempts at snow events here, and all three have actually happened this year, so yes, it's been a great winter so far for here at least. :-)

Usually you have attempt after failed attempt, until the forums have been bled dry of people still willing to trust the models, but still we come back, and are (occasionally) rewarded 

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2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Oh god yes, was that feb 2005?  I remember that clearly, the forums were 100s of times busier, and everyone had the thing nailed down, only for a complete u-turn the following morning in the charts. I even think the forecasters on the telly were forecasting it?? 

Possibly the biggest single letdown in my history on Netweather , I think most can agree on that?

We got a decent effort though? very snowy here, although time of year led to daytime sun thaws

archives-2005-2-22-0-0.png

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2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Oh god yes, was that feb 2005?  I remember that clearly, the forums were 100s of times busier, and everyone had the thing nailed down, only for a complete u-turn the following morning in the charts. I even think the forecasters on the telly were forecasting it?? 

Possibly the biggest single letdown in my history on Netweather , I think most can agree on that?

That was almost 13 years ago, the models have improved much since then 

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50 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Am I wrong in saying his hemispheric pattern will be crippling the PV

In terms of the longer term outlook a ridge over Alaska and a ridge over Scandy is a combination strat experts look for. It is regarded as a potential precursor to a vortex split event led by the double (wave 2) assault via tropospheric pinching. However don’t expect any impact of this for a couple to three weeks at least.

Chio is your key guy here. Search back through some of the past start threads or find him on Twitter... pm me if you need more.

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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

We got a decent effort though? very snowy here, although time of year led to daytime sun thaws

archives-2005-2-22-0-0.png

Notice the lower heights - that's a belter although it was pretty crap in the West Midlands but I think that was just unlucky, ive heard there was a foot up here.

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3 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

That was almost 13 years ago, the models have improved much since then 

No offence to you at all but imho i dont think the models have improved a jott.

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1 minute ago, offerman said:

No offence to you at all but imho i dont think the models have improved a jott.

Evidence?

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Notice the lower heights - that's a belter although it was pretty crap in the West Midlands but I think that was just unlucky, ive heard there was a foot up here.

 Mon to Wed wasn't here remember it well, but turned milder from the east on Thurs 24th with a thaw

archives-2005-2-24-12-0.png

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, offerman said:

No offence to you at all but imho i dont think the models have improved a jott.

Utterly preposterous and demonstrably wrong. Start here:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2559/full

Look at Figure 1.

Edited by Yarmy
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Is the UKMO 168 hours chart out?

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Some not so good news:

How far out does MOGREPS go? & it’s probably the reason why the UKMO outlook isn’t as good

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Just now, mulzy said:

Evidence?

I could say the same , Evidence they have changed for better? Look how many times they get it wrong chop and change even near term. Look in SW thread to see posters there saying how often forecasters get it wrong. Probably other threads too.

 

Its just nature and cant predict it  is all im saying. 

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3 minutes ago, karyo said:

Is the UKMO 168 hours chart out?

Its typical that the site which had it has a problem and we're not getting any updates. So just when we'd be very interested to see it we can't !

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7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Some not so good news:

How far out does MOGREPS go? & it’s probably the reason why the UKMO outlook isn’t as good

Ive seen forecasts from mogreps flip far too many times before!!all the ensembles could be showing cold but then they completely flip the next day!!lets see where the next 24 hours takes us!!

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