Model output discussion - into 2018

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

I think those in Scotland of the cold persuasion wouldn't agree re the uppers

I was talking about the ECM not the GFS.

[Ice Day]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I was talking about the ECM not the GFS.

Yes, just corrected!

[northwestsnow]

Ec is already a huge upgrade on this mornings run, the difference is staggering at 168!!

[tight isobar]

Well inspite; all of the complete un-needy crap..

Ec12z.

Goes top shelf going forwards.

Id like to analise a little better, but will refrain at the reconsile; of some members.

All above for the cold transfer.

Edited December 30, 2017 by Polar Maritime
Much more polite.

[SMU]

ECM much better @192 with -9c air in a strong Easterly flow over England however it feels a bit progressive to me

Infact my confidence in the ECM op this winter has taken dip- it’s been awfully progressive on all cold spells

[Dennis]

4 jan 2018 its a start of an battle

[Mark wheeler]

Nice trends today , remember Steve earmarking these dates a few days ago .

 

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[nick sussex]

The ECM at least moving in the right direction but we’re still seeing that ridge try and extend into Central Europe.

The coldest outcomes for the UK normally have low pressure over northern Italy but at least this run has pushed the pattern further se upto T192hrs.

[SMU]

I

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM at least moving in the right direction but we’re still seeing that ridge try and extend into Central Europe.

The coldest outcomes for the UK normally have low pressure over northern Italy but at least this run has pushed the pattern further se upto T192hrs.

ECM - just binned it again.

fed up with looking at it waste of space output

just as bad as the last cold spell.

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I

ECM - just binned it again.

fed up with looking at it waste of space output

just as bad as the last cold spell.

Quite so Steve but that run was always going that way. 

It was a Scotchwegian high not a true Scandi high and more a Majorcan low than a Genoa low.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I

ECM - just binned it again.

fed up with looking at it waste of space output

just as bad as the last cold spell.

It’s painful !

The ECM could deliver one of the greatest insults in the history of NW develop a slider but pull milder air from the se to undercut the precip!

Anyway at least it’s made some progress which is welcome after this mornings horror show.

[SLEETY]

Why is the ecm always so progressive in whatever it is showing ,it wasn’t like this before .High or low pressure is always quickly pushed through the Uk if it low pressure and high pressure disappears within  24 hours of it appearing.

none of it will verify like the ecm is showing when we get to the actual date

[Froze were the Days]

Well there was high pressure providing an easterly - blink and piff paff poof and it's gone!...bloody ECM!

[tight isobar]

14 minutes ago, Dennis said:

4 jan 2018 its a start of an battle

True battleground scenarios..

Im still opting, for a weak transfer via'48hr northerly incur..with a forcing gradiant, of aligning scandi heights..

Non-deep with shallow accomplish..

However, a gradiant you can play and exact with.

The angular momentum phase is now of fruition.

And-as again ops are in form this season!!!

 

Edited December 30, 2017 by tight isobar

[SLEETY]

Ecm seems a poor model. now,I’d like to see its recent verification stats 

[Jason M]

In fairness to ECM a similar blink and you miss it scenario has been fairly well represented in recent GEFS suites. If we get lucky here, marginality won't be an issue but I can't see it being anything other than brief (ie 2-3 days).

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well there was high pressure providing an easterly - blink and piff paff poof and it's gone!...bloody ECM!

Never mind, Froze - the real weather will have the final say...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm seems a poor model. now,I’d like to see its recent verification stats 

GFS performed better then this Nov/Dec? I think it did for 10th Dec

[nick sussex]

Anyway putting aside the later output at least after the morning deflation there is some cause for optimism .

I think a sustained easterly is unlikely but what we’re trying to achieve is the Scandi high showing up for long enough to advect some colder air sw wards .

We need this if any battle ground scenario is to deliver snow. If a Scandi high a sustained one is to show up it will probably take a few attempts however the holding pattern could be interesting if the Atlantic attacks keep disrupting just to the west of the UK and both the ECM and GFS do show another high lobe developing to the ne so it’s not a case of the jet running over the top.

I think most would have taken tonight’s outputs after the morning trauma . Whilst the ECM goes downhill for a time it’s still much better than this morning .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Voila....ECM collapses.  Overall though that is right imo just timing.....no easterly lockout....

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

In fairness to ECM a similar blink and you miss it scenario has been fairly well represented in recent GEFS suites. If we get lucky here, marginality won't be an issue but I can't see it being anything other than brief (ie 2-3 days).

Yes, looking at the graph for any area of England that looks the case, although many members after this do start to TRY to dig energy South again to bring a reload around 216-240 (ECM) and although the graph will show mild uppers, some of them will give battlegrounds where frigid uppers aren't needed and also there is a lot that have that energy crossing the meridian and would only need a small Westward correction (PV not as strong / influential and Icelandic low disrupting and digging South smidgeon earlier.

[Chesil View]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Anyway putting aside the later output at least after the morning deflation there is some cause for optimism .

I think a sustained easterly is unlikely but what we’re trying to achieve is the Scandi high showing up for long enough to advect some colder air sw wards .

We need this if any battle ground scenario is to deliver snow. If a Scandi high a sustained one is to show up it will probably take a few attempts however the holding pattern could be interesting if the Atlantic attacks keep disrupting just to the west of the UK and both the ECM and GFS do show another high lobe developing to the ne so it’s not a case of the jet running over the top.

I think most would have taken tonight’s outputs after the morning trauma . Whilst the ECM goes downhill for a time it’s still much better than this morning .

Very good post Nick. As I posted earlier I,m becoming more and more convinced that the rise in pressure being modelled around 144 is simply the first skirmish in a battle that will see our wintriest weather coming in the mid jan to mid feb timeframe.

[knocker]

Some wet and windy weather from the ecm next week. Tuesday sees the transient ridge still hanging in there in the south but a front associated with a low 972mb SSW of Iceland is already bringing rain (perhaps snow over the mountains) to Scotland  accompanied by strong winds

Over the next 24 hours the front races through to the eastern North Sea as the low drifts north west of Scotland resulting in a strong north westerly wind over the UK with gales along western coasts and frequent squally showers.

This system finally clears but by Thursday 00 the pincer movement of the two energy flows is now very evident as the strong jet running north east increases in velocity to the west of the UK and a deepening low also tracks north east to be 970mb just to west of N. Ireland by 12 on the same day with the warm front running across the south west.

The fronts quickly clear England to the east as the low drifts east across Scotland into the North Sea resulting, by 12 Friday, in the UK being in very strong N/NE airstream with gales once more in some exposed areas and again frequent squally showers.

At this point amplification takes place and the Azores high pressure surges north east which, with the help of the European ridge deconstructs the trough to our east. This results in the wind veering north east with low pressure now to our east and south.

The ridge then slips over the UK but it’s under tremendous pressure from our old friend the Canadian vortex and fronts, accompanied by rain and strong winds are back by the end of the run.

Saw Sidney this morning and he said to say Hi to his fans

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Meanwhile... GLAAM holds up in the face of GEFS yet again, in fact almost reaching phase 4 which would suggest an upward trend trying to get going.

It makes me wonder if we'll - most ironically - end up high and dry for the majority later next week as the phase 2-3 MJO signal undergoes some serious modification on its way out of the tropics. 

Good punch of deep cold looking to drop into Scandinavia around that time as the vortex lets loose a small lobe. If only, eh? 

Yes indeed - it stalled for 3 days but today has definitely edged towards phase 4. If it gets there then there is going to be some serious head scratching going on - at least from me.... WDT unbiased data from 3 days ago paints a very different picture - which one to believe?

I am led to believe WDT is the best data available - but there is a discrepancy somewhere....

[northwestsnow]

Am i the only one who likes the EC?

I think its a lovely run with temps generally average or below (its Jan so average means cold)from 168 onwards - quite an upgrade from the 00z run.