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Model output discussion - into 2018

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The main concern vis the gfs is the possibility 0f severe gales Friday through Saturday with copious  amounts of rain and perhaps blizzard conditions in the Scottish mountains.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_24.thumb.png.3a091cdb410cffa5d8fe4d034d43a4b8.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_26.thumb.png.d0572d5a5026d35783b99554f7442d11.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_28.thumb.png.1b0fcede41f15ee44177f08bc838cdc0.png

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Well..

People already talking about snow to elevation-up/down!!!

The current format should be over-looked, and the great synoptics, be taken into account.

Its quite -as per- precise forcing doubling russian'pen' warm, and evolve of mlb into iceland- and forming of anoms-and possible height transfer of the pair merging.

Things are certainly on an' upward spike if you are looking for cold incur...

The rest via- who gets what !? Gets left until frames are immenent-ie- 24/48 hrs..wow..this winter is quickly evolving into 'perhaps' one of note....

Edit; ecm 12z for sake of upper air 850hpa..is by way of defined, a clearer decipher of cold/warm synoptic.

And has that as a grace-against amplification bias...

So well worth a -note' before the 12z suite unfolds.

Gem- stats are out as regards-verification...and its up there with all-mains...post soon.

gfs-0-252.png

Screenshot_2017-12-30-16-44-16.png

Screenshot_2017-12-30-16-44-08.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Does anyone think the evolutions been painted in the models next week have potential to be slight further south to bring a bit more of the country into the game in regards to snow. This winter feels like its gonna shape up to be noteworthy of the amount of snow rather than the cold. Thanks to incursions from the west!

Edited by Snowjokes92

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4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’d be very surprised if it was only the Scottish Highlands Knocker.  Although to start maybe so

 

BFTP

Well yes it could well be further south and along the east coasts as indicated by the charts I posted BFTP but I'm not enthused about too much detail at this stage, a week down the line.and with one model.:)

Edited by knocker
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2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well yes it could well be further south and along the east coasts as indicated by the charts I posted BFTP but I'm not enthused about too much detail at this stage a week down the line.and with one model.:)

I’d tout that UKMO is heading that way too.... but fair enough 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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40 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think the GFs is good so far with deep snow accumulating for Scotland at the end next week

797D6CA0-DB03-4A31-89FA-B6B22ADB2A92.thumb.png.5f043f07a5fa79aa92e9fcca9d07cb32.png

Bloody hell few more miles south and it may turn interesting for the rest of us? What do you think steve? Am i right in thinking there would be frequent showers been blown in from north sea on this chart? 

 

We all know how many times things have shunted south this winter :)

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3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’d tout that UKMO is heading that way too 

 

BFTP

Yes that's quite possible

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.thumb.gif.175e87bcc3514d00c0fe0a15d6628ebb.gif

But look where the gfs is headed :shok:

gfs_uv250_natl_51.thumb.png.b26c7ccf6ad369d89a460cc3d238bf99.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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3 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Bloody hell few more miles south and it may turn interesting for the rest of us? What do you think steve? Am i right in thinking there would be frequent showers been blown in from north sea on this chart? 

 

We all know how many times things have shunted south this winter :)

The GFs mean -150 V 156 shows about a 2-300 mile southerly correction meaning more & more of Scotland are in the snow zone..

If the 06z was 6/10 score wise then 12z is 7/10...

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Very happy with this run high pressure building to north east and also very cold air  to the north east too if we get some that cold in to the U.K then some places could see snow. Trend is your friend we are going in the right direction proper cold..

IMG_0278.PNG

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

Yes that's quite possible

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.thumb.gif.175e87bcc3514d00c0fe0a15d6628ebb.gif

But look where the gfs is headed :80:

gfs_uv250_natl_51.thumb.png.b26c7ccf6ad369d89a460cc3d238bf99.png

 

 

To be noted; 

The variance of russian waa/tranfer..is of pivatol importance.

Spicked by trouging into atlantic..

Some mods have an' eastern tranfer of warming! Where as the ukmo, the warm is quickly displaced' back toward scandi -region.

A notable and massive sum for our shores.. 

 

Screenshot_2017-12-30-17-02-10.png

Screenshot_2017-12-30-17-02-21.png

UN72-21.GIF

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Really enjoyed that GFS run- very pleasing on the eye.

Bit unsure about ukmo 144- pressure higher across Europe meaning the low may struggle to get far enough SE ala EC 00z..

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

^^^

GFS control...

BF53DDD7-1733-4DC2-B4CC-EFF769CAA9D3.thumb.png.60a70f668cb3495e43482a44778550e0.png

We want that low to not faff about as it does on OP it could be really quite important clear SE better for cold air advection - like the control. :) 

For Scotland however it seems wintry conditions are a dead cert regardless..

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Only looked at the control run from the ens but it is a peach of a run for a short but potent cold snap with some snow to boot. still no reason to get overly optimistic. Could very well turn out to be a close but no cigar such as we have seen a few times in the last several years.

Scotland may well see a wintry weather from the shallow high that forms to the north/ northeast though.

Edited by comet

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7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Beast from the east on P8 quite notable cold - maxima a fair bit below freezing in SE. 

1C663EA6-92FA-44BB-9D72-4DE30B3E1D9C.thumb.png.2e672d86d68da6a17ad2e1b3358f2618.pngB6122D99-F6D3-4A6B-8CDB-6118BE3FB394.thumb.png.4153312fde76be3cb8772e6f72f493fa.png

 

That’s perfection Daniel

 

BFTP

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will have a number 8 please.

gensnh-8-1-264_mpe4.png

Ring any bells almost 30 years ago to the day????

Nothing like the depth of cold but a very tasty run. Probably 10% likely of verifying if that. Very nice to look at though.

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I'm liking the GEFS suite- there is a real possibility of a cold spell developing IMHO.

Still a bit concerned that ukmet 144 is showing pressure too high across Europe tho- hope EC doesn't repeat its 00z run..

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2 minutes ago, comet said:

Nothing like the depth of cold but a very tasty run. Probably 10% likely of verifying if that. Very nice to look at though.

It could Easily give as bigger dumping for the SE though - nearly -14c = temps well below freezing all day.

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Looking forwards to 12z ec -wreck..

I'd also like those 'whom' find my model out interp-bizzare,.

To give there evaluations..

We-will do well to  agree/disagree..

Look forwards to it..as obviously some are on the noise!!??😑

Edited by tight isobar
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Trouble is with the Scandi High is we've been stung so many times by them, probably more than anything phantom heights around the Svalbard/Nordic regions.

After the UKM I remain unconvinced, still the one good thing even on the UKMO is the main lobe of vortex looks like it's on the move to the other side of the hemisphere. No to be negative, just phantom easterlies are all to common.

Looking forward to the ECM, nice to have a little bit of interest for a few days we were going hours without posts good to see everyone again:D

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