Model output discussion - into 2018

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Text book Easterly @180 on GFS - cold pool developing over the UK in situ

atlantic trying to undercut ...

Text book? Are we looking at the same chart at 180?

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Text book Easterly @180 on GFS - cold pool developing over the UK in situ

atlantic trying to undercut ...

the sussex snow shield holds steady on this run,

thats as close as it gets.

however its a gradual improvement with each run and almost everyone is in the game on the 12z.

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Text book Easterly @180 on GFS - cold pool developing over the UK in situ

atlantic trying to undercut ...

This is my idea of a textbook easterly, from Jan 1987!!!

Edited January 1, 2018 by Frosty.

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Text book? Are we looking at the same chart at 180?

Meant to say the GEM 

Edited January 1, 2018 by Steve Murr

[SMU]

Updated  Aperge 114

 

[Ice Day]

The GEM at 210 is a stonker.  I'll be the first to ask, what's it's verification like vs the big 3?

  

[Bazza118]

ENE tend to produce  Thames streamers that have, in the past, given some decent coverings here over the North Downs, however true Easterlies off a cold continent have tended to create some penetrating frosts that develop nice cold pools that can be stubborn to move. The updated aperge @114 gives us a bit of both.

[Frosty.]

I think some perspective is required here, I'm hoping for deep cold of course but I'm not seeing anything like this on the way!!

[offerman]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This is my idea of a textbook easterly, from Jan 1987!!!

 And that is an absolute classic chart , what I’ve been saying about recently so much about the Azores high being in the wrong position that is a classic chart from 1987 which is where we need the Azores hi to retrogress Westwood and further  the south , it can happen it’s just so rare most of the time the high  seems to sit on  Azores, Spain or in Europe rarely moving anywhere these days.  

[booferking]

Nothing to say but the Gem is a Gem for all.

Powder snow knee deep for some.

Edited January 1, 2018 by booferking

[mulzy]

7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The GEM at 210 is a stonker.  I'll be the first to ask, what's it's verification like vs the big 3?

  

At 210 hours (like all other models) very low.

[SLEETY]

Hope the gem verifies for once.its a great run for all of us 

[northwestsnow]

APREGE gives a period of heavy snow across the pennines next friday  -

GFS is also good for snow showers across much of N Britain.

ukmo in comparison no as good.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Nothing to say but the Gem is a Gem for all.

Shame it's such a cr*p model..only gets wheeled out when the so called better performing models don't look so good!

[Yarmy]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Shame it's such a cr*p model..only gets wheeled out when the so called better performing models don't look so good!

The GEM has approximately the same verification stats as the GFS.

[Scandinavian High.]

It would be even better if later on the ecm goes the same way as gem .

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The GEM at 210 is a stonker.  I'll be the first to ask, what's it's verification like vs the big 3?

  

Gem have been fairly consist of late i'll post stats of verification shortly.

[phil nw.]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think some perspective is required here, I'm hoping for deep cold of course but I'm not seeing anything like this on the way!!

Yes that was a classic Frosty.

On this one though the first stage is now within sight.A look at t96 and both uk and gfs have  the cold ne flow on it's way to Scotland and the wedge of heights to the north.

as regards how this pans out well as the low drops south we see the cold come down with it so likely a cold weekend.Then we look to the nw to see if the next low digs se under the fledgling high.

Another nail biter by the looks.

Edited January 1, 2018 by phil nw.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes that was a classic Frosty.

On this one though the first stage is now within sight now.A look at t96 and both uk and gfs have and the ne flow on it's way to Scotland and the wedge of heights to the north.

as regards how this pans out well as the low drops south we see the cold come down with it so likely a cold weekend.Then we look to the nw to see if the next low digs se under the fledgling high.

Another nail biter by the looks.

Really hope we see something special phil, Jan 1987 was an absolute EPIC but I just think this is being way too hyped up by a few on here into something it's clearly  not..still, hope I'm very wrong!!!

Edited January 1, 2018 by Frosty.

[Daniel*]

For now I’d say east coast of Scotland / NE England down to Lincolnshire is set to see the convective snow showers the uppers aren’t sensational therefore might be rain/sleet on coast.

[bobbydog]

the indian model has us in a bitter north-easterly at +126

goodness gracious me!

 

Edited January 1, 2018 by bobbydog

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

23 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The GEM at 210 is a stonker.  I'll be the first to ask, what's it's verification like vs the big 3?

  

Don’t know but I do know it held its place a couple days back as others faltered but are now sharpening up

 

BFTP

Edited January 1, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Sweatyman]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

the indian model has us in a bitter north-easterly at +126

goodness gracious me!

 

Good old NCMRWF ???

[Mucka]

And the winner is, P18

[Allseasons-Si]

Afternoon everyone,just got up after an allnighter,HAPPY NEW YEAR TO THE BEST FORUM ON THE PLANET,and keep it friendly guys

THAT GEM is sick and i award it for the best(forecasted) model of 2018

hp cell growing to our NE with every run with trough undercutting similar to it's 06z but better,jet heading south,gfs being a party pooper but is slowly latching on.