Model output discussion - into 2018

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Early doors IKON now following suit - flow direct Easterly - 

Steve what u make of the gfs so far?

[SMU]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Steve what u make of the gfs so far?

Look at the angle of CAA NE of acotland @96 V 06z superb !!

cold is going to bomb SW - wait for 114-120

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at the angle of CAA NE of acotland @96 V 06z superb !!

cold is going to bomb SW - wait for 114-120

All aboard The Polar Express!

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at the angle of CAA NE of acotland @96 V 06z superb !!

cold is going to bomb SW - wait for 114-120

Well he's not wrong you know!!!  Looking dandy at 108 with -10's on the northern tip of Scotland

[feb1991blizzard]

Heavy snow over Central Britain about to move SE wards so the South even look like getting in on the act on this run.

[snowice]

Gem is a cracker with - 8uppers flooding south 

[snowray]

Cold air moving south faster on this run, here we go by D5. Nice band of snow there in the Midlands with snow showers further north.

[chris55]

 Cold air sinking south, snow risk associated with the main low now centred over Cornwall moving south with the cold air, then there's the showers hitting the east coast. Nice chart

 

[SMU]

Early doors scores

GEM 10:10

GFS. 8.5:10

UKMO 7.5:10

[Guest]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

I was thinking we were looking at ENE to be honest Steve..i may be wrong but i dont see a direct easter on the NWP this morning..if we did im not sure we would be seeing -8 uppers across the UK..(Given Poland and the Ukraine remain quite noticeably mild).

I do, in fact it's nailed on for a direct "Easter" - it says so in my 2018 diary (from March 31st until April 2nd) and what a coincidence, the good old CFS agrees in the entirely reliable time frames of T+2166 to T+2202:

             

What could possibly go wrong?  Sorry mods - I'm still suffering from late night posting fatigue!

Edited January 1, 2018 by Guest

[SLEETY]

Warmer air from east moving in on ukmo ? 

[Ice Day]

At 138 most of the country still under -8's. Cracking run for the midlands north, Scotland and north east England especially.  Not so great for the southern contingent .... yet.  

[snowray]

UKMO not so good but blinding GFS, we have our easterly with the COLD uppers too! And lots of snow in the far south this time.

 

Edited January 1, 2018 by snowray

[booferking]

UKMO is pants compared to earlier run. 

The rest of the models all an improvement cant see much from this in western parts tho.

[Daniel*]

Well a lot has been going on! I’m not a fan of direct easterly need a more NE’ly element so to speak warm air from the med is dragged up as we see less cold air is pushed in from the continent towards SE.

 

[beng]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

UKMO not so good but blinding GFS, we have our easterly with the COLD uppers too! And lots of snow in the far south this time.

 

 

 

That's showing rain for much of the South. I reckon we might get lucky though, but need to see the models tweak the output a bit more first.

Edited January 1, 2018 by beng

[snowray]

1 minute ago, beng said:

That's showing rain for much of the South.

Its moving from the Midlands southwards turning from rain to snow. SE seems to keep slightly milder air though, your right. 

Its just one run though.

[SMU]

Perhaps a lot of Confusion here -

The broad scale pattern is almost identical on all 3 models -

144 long fetch Easterly

UKMO fetch is about 90/95 degrees East 

GEM is about 80 degrees ENE

thats the difference between -8c in the SE or 0c ....

[DIS1970]

More chance of the white stuff in central areas of mainland Spain on that run, still looks like we're grasping at straws for any long term cold. 

[beng]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Perhaps a lot of Confusion here -

The broad scale pattern is almost identical on all 3 models -

144 long fetch Easterly

UKMO fetch is about 90/95 degrees East 

GEM is about 80 degrees ENE

thats the difference between -8c in the SE or 0c ....

Fine margins then - for my location at least.

[SMU]

Text book Easterly @180 on GFS - cold pool developing over the UK in situ

atlantic trying to undercut ...

[Ice Day]

Huge differences at 180 on the GFS 12z vs 6z when looking at the uppers out East.

12z   6z  

That's a pretty big movement in my book, let's hope the trend continues. 

[MR EXTREMES]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Perhaps a lot of Confusion here -

The broad scale pattern is almost identical on all 3 models -

144 long fetch Easterly

UKMO fetch is about 90/95 degrees East 

GEM is about 80 degrees ENE

thats the difference between -8c in the SE or 0c ....

Even in the latter part of the GFS the only way the Atlantic can get in is but sliders.

So reload easterly is possible.

Beat me to it Steve fingers crossed the ECM follow the gem.

It's possible as gem does seem to run like the ECM.

Edited January 1, 2018 by MR EXTREMES

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, beng said:

Fine margins then - for my location at least.

Somewhere could get a dump of snow, this will be on the northern and western boundary of the cold and milder air. Midlands and Wales look like doing best again but its a long way off so anything can happen yet.

[SMU]

1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Even in the latter part of the GFS the only way the Atlantic can get in is but sliders.

So reload easterly is possible.

Watch the GEM - it’s even better for undercut

@180 the T2M is 0c over the UK..