Model output discussion - into 2018

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We sort of still are, save for a transient ridge . ................ and it certainly is going this week !!!

6Z shows even with the block pushed back it still has enough left in it to force the jet into Europe Blue-

Looks very snowy at times as PM attacks increase into FI.

I have been reading posts on the other side and while i agree it doesn't look great south of Birmingham , there are plenty of folk living in the north, and i think those, esp away from the coasts will see snow showers next weekend, NE scotland (away from the coast and the pennine chain esp).

As is always the case IMBYism rears its head in these kind of situations..

Edited January 1, 2018 by northwestsnow

[stewfox]

48 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes you wait for the fabled easterly and you have poor 850s!!! Just about sums up our fortunes in the uk 

Terrible so far isn't it  just 10 days of lying snow for low lying Oxfordshire . In the 80s of course we would have had 400 days of lying snow by now and no one would have believed us 

Lets see where we go with this and sub -5c/-10c uppers in the reliable.. My snowman dont care if they are made from a northerly or easterly

ECM 12z 29 nov for 8 dec all was lost

but it turned out ok.

Edited January 1, 2018 by stewfox

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We sort of still are, save for a transient ridge . ................ and it certainly is going this week !!!

Good point tbh.nothing looking at the nhp looks to be stopping the atlantic be it pm sourced.

[SMU]

GFS mean at 108 @850 2 degrees colder for everyone than 00z

expect 120 to be down to -8c for Scotland ( poss -10)

S

[Weathizard]

5 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Terrible so far isn't it  just 10 days of lying snow for low lying Oxfordshire . In the 80s of course we would have had 400 days of lying snow by now and no one would have believed us 

Lets see where we go with this and sub -5c/-10c uppers in the reliable.. My snowman dont care if they are made from a northerly or easterly

ECM 12z 29 nov for 8 dec all was lost

but it turn out ok.

With due respect, lots of have seen absolutely zilch, not even a flake. Just because your location has done well doesn't mean everywhere has.

Back to the models, mean looking slightly better at day 5/6, control looks pretty nice also

[Day 10]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We sort of still are, save for a transient ridge . ................ and it certainly is going this week !!!

It hasn't really materialised so far though has it. Everytime it looks like getting it's act together it starts to break up and give us cold chances again. This could develop into a cold spell rather than snap, we'll see but I'm liking upto 120/144.

[tight isobar]

Already we have snow geographical/depths etc trying to be deciphered, @5/6 days out?

When we are not even sure of the migrate-of incursion/cold depth/pressure placements/ etc..?

Thing will likely be a fare bit different come the weeks end.

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS mean at 108 @850 2 degrees colder for everyone than 00z

expect 120 to be down to -8c for Scotland ( poss -10)

S

Keep posting steve am loving it lol!!am waiting for the next update from you for the 120 hours mean?!!can the 12zs upgrade even more on the ukmo and ecm?!!steve gfs control looks better than the op at 144 hours i think!!

Edited January 1, 2018 by shaky

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS mean at 108 @850 2 degrees colder for everyone than 00z

expect 120 to be down to -8c for Scotland ( poss -10)

S

Yes, the mean is quite an upgrade at 108 steve -

Showers turning more and more to snow as the colder air sinks south..

[Banbury]

6 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Terrible so far isn't it  just 10 days of lying snow for low lying Oxfordshire . In the 80s of course we would have had 400 days of lying snow by now and no one would have believed us 

Lets see where we go with this and sub -5c/-10c uppers in the reliable.. My snowman dont care if they are made from a northerly or easterly

ECM 12z 29 nov for 8 dec all was lost

but it turn out ok.

Bang on it’s been good in Oxon and I don’t think we have seen the last of it 

[SLEETY]

15 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Isn’t anyone worried about ECM T+168? Not a million miles away and not a good chart on the face of it. 

 

No because it doesn’t actually exist yet .It hasn’t even formed.And models are never accurate at that time frame anyway

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

With due respect, lots of have seen absolutely zilch, not even a flake. Just because your location has done well doesn't mean everywhere has.

Back to the models, mean looking slightly better at day 5/6, control looks pretty nice also

Stew was replying to a post that implied the U.K. was poor for snow ......

[northwestsnow]

GEFS mean at 144 shows -8 uppers widely and air sourced from the Baltics (which is cold- its actually colder in the UK than Poland/ukraine!!)

[Sweatyman]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

GEFS mean at 144 shows -8 uppers widely and air sourced from the Baltics (which is cold- its actually colder in the UK than Poland/ukraine!!)

I like the sound of that !!

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Stew was replying to a post that implied the U.K. was poor for snow ......

He was replying to my comment on poor 850s later on on the 6z via the forecast easterly. They are and hes wrong on his comments

Edited January 1, 2018 by swfc

[TEITS]

GEFS mean and at +156 the colder temps are only slightly further SW. Little change for most of us though compared to 0Z.

Still unconvinced much will come from this E,ly except for Scotland and maybe NE England.

[stewfox]

9 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Stew was replying to a post that implied the U.K. was poor for snow ......

I didn't suggest your going to get Oregon feb 1995.. they knew how to keep roads clear and didn't care about ill fitting jeans... but I'm happy with what the charts show.

Edited January 1, 2018 by stewfox

[SMU]

Last one from me - no 168 UKMO

Try PTB 1 - identical to UKMO to 144

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=1&mode=0&carte=

 

*** watch out for a big dip in mean @192 to sub -4c for London *** 

 

Edited January 1, 2018 by Steve Murr

[beng]

9 minutes ago, TEITS said:

GEFS mean and at +156 the colder temps are only slightly further SW. Little change for most of us though compared to 0Z.

Still unconvinced much will come from this E,ly except for Scotland and maybe NE England.

Actually quite a few decent easterlies develop in the 6z ensembles by the looks of things, but may take 2 shots to get there so to speak. 

 

Edit: there looked to be at 180h, but mostly gone by 204h, but that good just be the ensembles being too progressive, clutches straws.

 

Edited January 1, 2018 by beng

[Banbury]

Control has the HP in a better position for sure 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, beng said:

Actually quite a few decent easterlies develop in the 6z ensembles by the looks of things, but may take 2 shots to get there so to speak. 

 

Yes well noted.?

[Yarmy]

UKMO T168 here:

 

[Banbury]

9 minutes ago, beng said:

Actually quite a few decent easterlies develop in the 6z ensembles by the looks of things, but may take 2 shots to get there so to speak. 

 

Edit: there looked to be at 180h, but mostly gone by 204h, but that good just be the ensembles being too progressive, clutches straws.

 

Yes indeed virtually nil by 240 but that’s miles out in weather terms 

[SMU]

Yep same as PTB 1 ^^^

best UKMO in a long while

there is only 1 bite needed-

Edited January 1, 2018 by Steve Murr

[nick sussex]

Better to have short term upgrades than chasing better synoptics well into FI which hit the buffers!

I'm pleased overall with todays outputs because just a few days ago it looked like the limpet low would fill over the UK.  That would have delivered not very much and then we'd be chasing rainbows.

Looking longer term the upstream pattern is expected to de-amplify somewhat which will mean the troughing will move east. As to how that occurs in terms of what happens to the high to the ne and how much trough disruption occurs is still uncertain.

Theres no reason to think we can't continue to see these incremental changes to the shorter term feeding into something better longer term.

Its a case of seeing how things progress over the next few days but at least we have something interesting developing towards the weekend.