Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

Recommended Posts

So eyes down for the 12s

historically UKMO is the lead in these scenarios..

watch for slightly better heights to the north at 120/144 circa 10 dam as well a better curvature of the isolines

GFS 72 looks better to the North V the 06z but early days

s

CAFE70AF-D74A-4E37-B3C3-F5CF270168F3.thumb.png.c46ee5ba351a13b0bf831845771ce771.png

Edited by Steve Murr
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CFS v2 latest run certainly exploring the trend for heights to our north/north east next month. Only 1 run of such eye candy but have noticed a gathering trend of growing heights to the north east of various depths over recent days - will keep an eye on other runs. :) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

CFS v2 latest run certainly exploring the trend for heights to our north/north east next month. Only 1 run of such eye candy but have noticed a gathering trend of growing heights to the north east of various depths over recent days - will keep an eye on other runs. :) 

That’s a turnaround the last run had a blowtorch warmth devouring all of Europe. :cold:

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The silence in here i guess speaks for itself!!12z gfs boring run so far!!was expecting stronger heights to our north around 120 hours so low could slide a bit more but not to be!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the GFs is good so far with deep snow accumulating for Scotland at the end next week

797D6CA0-DB03-4A31-89FA-B6B22ADB2A92.thumb.png.5f043f07a5fa79aa92e9fcca9d07cb32.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, karyo said:

Very cyclonic UKMO! Will the low clear southeastwards to allow a northeasterly?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

Absolutely.  Look at the movement from 120-144.  That UKMO Leads only Se or SSE.  Beautiful run

Also look at the temp profile on the UKMO run from 120-144 there is no mild sector to our west with indication of cold flooding south and the Nw/Se axis.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I think the GFs is good so far with deep snow accumulating for Scotland at the end next week

797D6CA0-DB03-4A31-89FA-B6B22ADB2A92.thumb.png.5f043f07a5fa79aa92e9fcca9d07cb32.png

Agreed Steve... the fear from the easterly shown in previous models was that it was orginating from a rather unseasonably mild Russia. However the air in the 12z orginates from a much colder direction that is then forced around the high. Exciting times ahead and a very interesting January coming up. 

h850t850eu.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reasonably happy with GFS 1030mb surface high centered a few hundred miles N of Scotland will probably edge eastwards to Scandi...

5EA0FEAC-C3DE-4BF0-85DB-327FA04E064D.thumb.png.38391ef2872b3f49452b25f96fb25032.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could turn very cold and dry over scotland with a blocking area of high pressure to the north hapoening... repeat of Jan 2004 perhaps?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lovely stuff okay uppers not great in the south - but good on the eye evolution.

09DC70DE-8C29-4B59-A03E-9759D3909E62.thumb.png.3f372a1f83d9a0b28600fc4de4564842.png

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Lovely stuff okay uppers not great in the south - but good on the eye evolution.

09DC70DE-8C29-4B59-A03E-9759D3909E62.thumb.png.3f372a1f83d9a0b28600fc4de4564842.png

 

6C and drizzle - yuck!

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That’s a very well orientated Scandi block - battleground Britain lining up. :D 

4B5CCB41-0253-4080-9D41-399CA0FDF4BF.thumb.png.f638690b0fa538e2a971bb382ae5b1bf.png

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

That’s a very well orientated Scandi block - battleground Britain lining up. :D 

4B5CCB41-0253-4080-9D41-399CA0FDF4BF.thumb.png.f638690b0fa538e2a971bb382ae5b1bf.png

 

Yes, somewhere is going to get a pelting, we just want that little mild sector to keep out of harms way.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That’s a very well orientated Scandi block - battleground Britain lining up. :D 

4B5CCB41-0253-4080-9D41-399CA0FDF4BF.thumb.png.f638690b0fa538e2a971bb382ae5b1bf.png

 

I doubt if it would produce a dumping of snow though

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, somewhere is going to get a pelting, we just want that little mild sector to keep out of harms way.

??? Not so sure , there isn’t a great deal of cold across the U.K., 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whether GFS clears it all away to quickly I don’t know but we are likely to see the Scandi HP get buffeted and thus it’s influence not ‘entirely’ there but never far away.  Surface SE flow for far E / SE down the line? 

Main thing at this stage is the theme up to the 5th.... very good chances for the next widespread wintry event following. 

That finger of LP sliding in t240ish brings as much if no more widespread cold than the easterly!

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Look at the frigid cold to the north east/east, so close you can almost touch it!  Another good run here with bags of potential upgrades down the line!

gfsnh-1-234.png?12

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Whether GFS clears it all away to quickly I don’t know but we are likely to see the Scandi HP get buffeted and thus it’s influence not ‘entirely’ there but never far away.  Surface SE flow for far E / SE down the line? 

Main thing at this stage is the theme up to the 5th.... very good chances for the next widespread wintry event following. 

 

BFTP

That’s a fair shout , the theme is there , who knows once it’s upon us 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

??? Not so sure , there isn’t a great deal of cold across the U.K., 

 

3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I doubt if it would produce a dumping of snow though

No, That little shortwave that the main body of troughing ejects just gets past the meridian, we needed more elongation towards Western France and not Eastern France.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This issue is the slow movement and filling of the low over the UK at day 6. Synoptically looks good but because that low didn't move quickly, cloud, drizzle and mildish uppers injected into the mix.

Edited by mulzy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Look at the frigid cold to the north east/east, so close you can almost touch it!  Another good run here with bags of potential upgrades down the line!

gfsnh-1-234.png?12

Indeed Ice Day

Not much unseasonably mild Russia there to my eyes

 

BFTP

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Into FI so details are pointless at this stage, but in the great scheme of things we're a hairs breadth away from something special at 252.  A few little tweaks and we could hit the jackpot here.....at least we have a ticket.

gfsnh-1-252.png?12

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×