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Model output discussion - into 2018

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A bigger pool of cold air building to the north east at 114, definitely better than the 0z at this stage

0z gfsnh-1-120.png?0  6z  gfsnh-1-114.png?6

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Cold door opens...850s dropping and look to cover uk as the cold begins to make inroads....

Next few frames should look great!!

gfs-1-126.png

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17 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

That’s a model I never look at , does it verify well?

yes the stats for GEM are pretty good.

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Posted (edited)

It's good to see all that cold around  Norway/ svalbard . Might help to build some much needed ice in that locale

Edited by SteveB

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The GFS gets to 138 & then just pulls the little shortwave west restricting any further southward advance - however that’s not to concerning as the bigger picture is a huge move to UKMO

even on this run lots of snow for the NE!

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Need this arm of heights deeper into iceland...to drop the trough and put a squeeze on those euro heights allowing smoother tranfer of uppers countrywide.

But this is easy acheivable; as we progress....

Over more runs.

Screenshot_2018-01-01-10-10-12.png

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Happy new year. I've seen worse starts to the new year as -10c edges a bit further south for Scotland at the weekend

GFS 6z                                                                    GFS 0z

h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

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Not a great run (6z GFS) in the  medium term but an upgrade up to 132hrs. The saggy bottom high that delivers warms uppers is something to watch going forward. 

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Warm easterly anyone? :fool: 

Lol you couldn't make it up.

IMG_8724.PNG

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Posted (edited)

Ninja snow for northwest Africa

 

gfs-2-132.png?6

Edited by The Eagle

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Warm easterly anyone? :fool: 

Lol you couldn't make it up.

IMG_8724.PNG

Depends what you define as warm? :D

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Warm easterly anyone? :fool: 

Lol you couldn't make it up.

IMG_8724.PNG

Yes you wait for the fabled easterly and you have poor 850s!!! Just about sums up our fortunes in the uk :sorry:

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Happy with 6z, its moved towards UKMET out to 120- for now that will do thankyou very much..

All eyes on Exeter in a couple of hours..

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Happy with 6z, its moved towards UKMET out to 120- for now that will do thankyou very much..

All eyes on Exeter in a couple of hours..

Hoping for a great set of ENS - with plenty like the UKMO or better!! Still, 3-4 day cold spell will be good.

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Posted (edited)

6z then disappoints after approx 160z as high pressure scoots off east south eastwards into southern Russia and we're left back where we started, now pinning on the UKMO being correct.

Edited by Froze were the Days

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14 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Warm easterly anyone? :fool: 

Lol you couldn't make it up.

IMG_8724.PNG

What I call a faux Easterly. Warm air sourced from Africa, slightly cooled as it comes off the continent to our shores. Pet hate of mine these type of "Easterlies" as it gives my region cloudy skies and drizzle for days.

Be nice to see a proper Easterly sourced from Eastern Europe/Siberia.

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Gfs 06z op is a pretty good fit with the eps mean at day 10

IMG_0724.thumb.PNG.e59b36833853f15bc99e1d8ea00b0e07.PNG IMG_0725.thumb.PNG.780b5a66f661ef8432c21c9905e2ec68.PNG

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GFS6Z despite the breakdown shows a cold PM airflow thereafter with residual heights to the NE continuing to force the jet into Europe..

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2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Happy New Year to all Net Weather Folk. This great forum is my life link to Blighty.I know your weather is crap and frustrating for most of the time, but you lot still live in one of the best countries on this planet by a mile. Never let anyone tell you any different. Now this mornings chart, you could not write the script for such a dramatic diverge in models to start the 2018. ECM flips from last evening super run , GFS  not interested in any proper cold outcome, GEM then produces a real old school gem of  winter charts ( 1979 like ! ) So best now stick with UKMO which looks good to me with a more robust high and pressure getting  in place with a cold feed for most that may hold up the Atlantic in the further outlook. More drama today with flips galore likely. Great weather watching. Think Brittany is getting a battering this morning. Very mild flow through out mainland Europe now getting into the Alps. 

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

Well I think the 0600h GFS run is a improvement at 120t. Still looks out of sink with the UKMO &especially GEM   to deliver cold for the Southeast of Britain but a step in the right direction.  More runs required yet to find a route to a more prolonged colder spell for all but these charts from all models at t144 look encouraging.

C

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So the short term upgrades continue, very good start to 2018! Out with the old garbage of the last 3-4 years and in with the new, a building proper cold spell of old (fingers crossed) and in January!

Things are evolving nicely and moving closer, the 120 charts below.

UN120-21.thumb.GIF.af76bb09a6d8f022980ccfd4e6f05031.GIFgemnh-0-120.thumb.png.b931e0b4b059e3d4f03178604f2fef80.pngECH1-120.GIF.thumb.png.e5ed2a6b9443df0900e3686e50b9adb1.png

And now the GFS is waking up and moving toward the above.

gfsnh-0-114.thumb.png.144a0b728471f7baa345da60250b1f30.png

I'm sure we were starring down the barrel of a raging vortex/atlantic not so long ago, seeming a distant memory already infact did it ever really get going?

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Isn’t anyone worried about ECM T+168? Not a million miles away and not a good chart on the face of it. 

 

BA17F23A-20BE-452A-9AC4-A840B39944AA.png

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8 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I'm sure we were starring down the barrel of a raging vortex/atlantic not so long ago, seeming a distant memory already infact did it ever really get going?

We sort of still are, save for a transient ridge . ................ and it certainly is going this week !!!

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Just now, Paul_1978 said:

Isn’t anyone worried about ECM T+168? Not a million miles away and not a good chart on the face of it. 

 

BA17F23A-20BE-452A-9AC4-A840B39944AA.png

It could be right Paul- but i think its wrong, added to that its a mild outlier as posted previuosly.

Exeter will give us a better idea when the update comes out after dinner.. :)

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